The numbers behind the decline of Brisbane’s stars and form in 2024
Eric Hipwood and Cam Rayner are popular whipping boys for those disgruntled with the Lions. But it’s their established teammates having less impact in a disastrous season so far.
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Popular Brisbane Lions whipping boys Eric Hipwood and Cam Rayner are actually enjoying improved campaigns compared to their 2023 seasons.
But eight of their established teammates, including superstar forwards Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, are having significantly less impact this year.
Of the 20 players who featured a minimum of 11 times in 2023 and in at least five games this season, 12 have either improved or kept their level from last year’s run to the grand final.
That is according to Champion Data’s AFL Player Ratings Points system, which uses a complex algorithm combining a multitude of key statistics and data points to spit out an easy to digest number indicating a player’s performance when compared to those in the same position across the competition.
While the ratings system can sometimes want for nuance, like the game of a tagger whose sole goal is not to win the ball but limit the influence of an opposition player, it is among the best ways to objectively measure positional performance across the league.
To the surprise of no one, evergreen veteran Dayne Zorko has enjoyed the biggest jump in performance over the past 12 months, rising 31 per cent.
His shift to halfback, out of necessity after Keidean Coleman went down with an ACL injury in Opening Round, has been one of the shining lights on an otherwise disappointing start to the year.
He is the Lions’ 7th-ranked player overall.
Lachie Neale is Brisbane’s best-performed player this season and has actually improved, by 1 per cent, on his Brownlow-winning 2023 campaign.
Rebounding defender Darcy Wilmot has taken his game to another level, rising 23 per cent on his 2023 output, and is the Lions’ 8th-ranked player.
And then come Hipwood and Rayner, the third and fourth-biggest improvers year-on-year.
Although on track to have significantly fewer goals than his career-high 41 of last season, Hipwood is clunking more contested marks and winning more 1-on-1 match-ups this year.
Speak to any Brisbane player and they will talk glowingly of Hipwood’s importance to the team structure. His role is to provide contests in the air and bring the ball to ground for the small forwards to go to work.
And according to Champion Data, those KPIs are trending upwards.
Rayner has teased fans this season with moments of brilliance and purple patches through the midfield, headlined by his 25 disposals and nine clearances in the win over Melbourne at the MCG in round six.
But the former No. 1 draft pick has been a target for criticism this season, no more so than after the recent loss to Hawthorn in which he had just seven disposals and failed to hit the scoreboard.
And yet Rayner is Brisbane’s ninth-ranked player this season and has improved by 13 per cent on his 2023 output.
The 24-year-old may be kicking less goals in 2024, but he is on track to have more disposals this season and will almost certainly shatter his career-best tackle numbers.
Rayner’s forward-half pressure acts have risen substantially not just when compared to last year but in all previous seasons he played as a general forward – and he is second among all Lions forwards for score assists per game, behind only Cameron.
Speaking of Cameron, the 2023 All-Australian has seen a stark 40 per cent drop in performance when compared to last year – the steepest dip of any player.
| Brisbane Lions AFL Player Ratings Points (Minimum 5 games in 2024) | |||||
| Player | 2023 Games | 2024 Games | 2023 Rating | 2024 Rating | Difference |
| Dayne Zorko | 20 | 11 | 8.7 | 11.3 (7th) | +31% |
| Darcy Wilmot | 26 | 11 | 8.5 | 10.5 (8th) | +23% |
| Eric Hipwood | 26 | 10 | 5.9 | 6.8 | +14% |
| Cam Rayner | 26 | 11 | 8.7 | 9.9 (9th) | +13% |
| Lincoln McCarthy | 24 | 7 | 8.1 | 9.1 (10th) | +13% |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25 | 11 | 11.2 | 11.5 (6th) | +3% |
| Harris Andrews | 26 | 11 | 13.0 | 13.2 (2nd) | +1% |
| Zac Bailey | 24 | 6 | 11.6 | 11.8 (5th) | +1% |
| Lachie Neale | 26 | 10 | 13.9 | 14.1 (1st) | +1% |
| Jack Payne | 23 | 10 | 6.7 | 6.8 | +1% |
| Brandon Starcevich | 26 | 7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 0% |
| Josh Dunkley | 24 | 11 | 13.1 | 13.1 (3rd) | 0% |
| Cal Ah Chee | 11 | 10 | 7.2 | 7.0 | -2% |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 14 | 11 | 7.5 | 7.1 | -5% |
| Jarrod Berry | 25 | 11 | 8.7 | 8.1 | -6% |
| Oscar McInerney | 25 | 10 | 13.1 | 11.9 (4th) | -9% |
| Ryan Lester | 19 | 11 | 9.6 | 8.5 | -12% |
| Joe Daniher | 26 | 11 | 11.9 | 8.7 | -27% |
| Conor McKenna | 26 | 6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | -39% |
| Charlie Cameron | 26 | 11 | 10.6 | 6.3 | -40% |
After 11 games he is on track to kick roughly 20 fewer goals than 2023.
Even then, Cameron has only gone goalless in two games this season and is absolutely trending upwards after a slow start to the year by his immeasurably lofty standards
He still remains Brisbane’s best pressure forward and ranks second for score involvements, behind only Daniher.
Daniher is down 27 per cent year-on-year – although his place on this list perhaps says more about the heady heights of an unbelievable 2023 season than anything else.
He is Brisbane’s 11th-ranked player this season, and still rates as ‘Elite’ as the key forward position across the competition.
Running defender Conor McKenna was among the biggest success stories of 2023 when he returned from a two-year AFL sabbatical and played every game for the Lions.
But the Irishman has struggled for form in 2024, battling a recurring hamstring injury, and has seen a steep decline on his impressive debut year for Brisbane.
The Lions return from their mid-season bye week on Friday night when they travel to face the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.
Chris Fagan’s side is desperate for a win to keep its slim finals hopes alive.
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