For and against: The case for and against Brisbane’s finals hopes
Chris Fagan says his side can follow the example of GWS and Carlton from last season and recover from a disastrous start to play finals — but, is it that simple? We examine the case for and against a Lions resurgence.
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Not since the fledgling days of the Chris Fagan era have the Brisbane Lions found themselves in such a precarious position at this stage of the season.
The shock 25-point loss to Hawthorn on Sunday dropped the Lions to 13th on the ladder, 10 points adrift of the top eight.
With 13 wins the likely bare minimum requirement to make finals, last year’s grand finalists now need to win nine of their final 12 games to avoid an early end to the season.
Forget top four. Brisbane is now in a monumental fight to even feature in September and Fagan knows it better than anyone.
“This is a bit of a unique situation for us,” he mused in the wake of the Hawthorn defeat.
“We haven’t been in it for five years, but here we are. Our season’s hanging well and truly in the balance.”
The coach has every confidence his side can arrest its worrying decline and play the type of footy required to make a late run to the finals. But time is running out.
The playing group and football department have gone their separate ways during the bye week but both parties will already be looking ahead to the Western Bulldogs next Friday night.
If ever there was a time to reset and rebound, it is now. So can they do it?
THE CASE FOR
● GWS and Carlton: As Fagan pointed out on Sunday, the Blues and Giants rebounded from similar lowly positions last season to both feature in preliminary finals. The example has been set as recently as 12 months ago.
At the end of round 12 last year, the Giants were 4-8 – two wins outside the top eight – having won just one of their previous five matches. They then rattled off seven-straight wins and nine of their final 11 games to land in seventh.
The Blues meanwhile came back from an even worse position. After 13 games they were 4-8-1 and 10 points outside the top eight, in an even worse position than the Lions now find themselves. Michael Voss’ men went on to win nine of their final 10 games to finish in fifth.
Both sides were categorically ruled out of finals contention. First-year coach Adam Kingsley was given some leeway given the circumstances but there were calls for Voss to be sacked.
By season’s end Kingsley was voted Coach of the Year by his peers, and Voss among the contenders.
There is precedent for a major form reversal and the Lions have the calibre of player to make it happen.
● Returning players: Reinforcements are on the way in coming weeks.
Reliable lockdown defender Brandon Starcevich is expected to return from a calf injury after the bye, against either the Bulldogs or St Kilda. He has been a staple of Brisbane’s back six for the past four years and will bring some much-needed stability.
Although his form this season has not been stellar, Eric Hipwood plays a crucial role in Brisbane’s forward line structure and his absence against the Hawks was felt. He will return from suspension against the Dogs.
And if the Lions can keep their season alive to early July, they will be bolstered by the return of young gun Will Ashcroft who is expected back from his ACL injury between rounds 17-19.
Ashcroft was on track to win the Rising Star last year before his knee injury. To what level he can play on his return will be a watch and see, but the Lions have been patient with their star of the future to give him the best chance at success.
The only best-23 players unavailable for the remainder of the campaign are Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy and Tom Doedee who all suffered year-ending ACL injuries.
Dashing defender Coleman’s absence has been felt the most and McCarthy was one of the Lions’ most consistent players before he went down in the QClash. Doedee’s setback was a major blow, but Brisbane went within four points of a flag last season without him.
If – and it’s a big if – the Lions can stay healthy from here-on out, they should be in a strong position at the selection table for the tail end of the campaign.
● Home Hunting: Brisbane’s shocking start to the season has been amplified by its poor form at the Gabba. Last season the Lions went unbeaten at home but they are currently 2-3.
While surprising, Brisbane’s three losses at the Gabba have come against Carlton, Collingwood and Geelong – three sides who were either in stellar form leading in or are expected to feature at the pointy end of the ladder come late-August.
Importantly, the two wins have come in their most recent games at home. The Suns and Tigers proved easy kills and were exactly what the Lions needed to regain their Gabba confidence.
They play St Kilda, Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, GWS and Essendon at home to round out the season. Not an easy slate of fixtures by any stretch, but a great opportunity to earn wins over rivals who will also be jostling for a place in the top eight.
● Scope for improvement: Pound for pound Brisbane boasts one of the most talented lists in the AFL.
The Lions’ top-line stars like Lachie Neale and Harris Andrews continue to perform week-in, week-out but too many of their teammates are down on their output from 2023.
The likes of Cam Rayner, Jack Payne, Charlie Cameron and Hipwood enjoyed near-career best campaigns in 2023 but have all struggled this season. If they can bridge the gap to their previous form, the Lions will be in a much better position.
● The numbers look good: The only number that ultimately matters on the final siren is what is on the scoreboard. But key stats can help form a bigger picture and the Lions’ usual KPIs are strong.
They remain the No. 1 clearance team in the competition and No. 2 for inside 50s, meaning they are getting first hands on the football and often winning the territory battle.
Where the Lions have let themselves down this season is converting once inside 50. They are among the worst sides in the competition at turning an entry into a score. And they are inaccurate. Against Hawthorn on Sunday they were a wayward 10.15 in front of goal.
Only three times this season have the Lions kicked more goals than behinds and only 48.7 per cent of their scores are goals. Last season they were a much more respectable 53.3 per cent in front of goal.
THE CASE AGAINST
● History: Arresting poor form isn’t a simple task.
There is a reason the footy world reacted so glowingly to the reversal of fortunes for Carlton and GWS last season, because their respective rises were more an exception to the rule than standard practice.
It was expected the Giants would start slowly under a new coach and once they became accustomed to Kingsley’s new system, the output looked night and day different.
The Blues must be the blueprint that Brisbane follows. They dropped to the bottom four and suffered a litany of significant injuries. Yet Voss found a way to rally the troops and took them on a stunning run to September that could only be stopped by the Lions in Brisbane.
Prior to 2023, the last time a side reached the finals from four or fewer wins at this stage of the season was 2019, when the Bulldogs won eight of 11 to climb to seventh.
History says it is possible, but unlikely.
● The Fixture: There is no sugar coating this one. Brisbane’s run home is far from easy.
When the draw was released last November, it quickly became apparent that the Lions had perhaps the toughest fixture in footy.
Three trips to South Australia, two to Western Australia and the equal-most matches against last year’s top-eight made for tough reading.
Having already dropped three home games this season – the same amount as their previous three seasons combined – the Lions are now reliant on winning games on the road, which even when in top form has not been easy.
Brisbane has never won more than six games away from home in a single season under Fagan and is currently 2-3-1 on the road in 2024.
In the next three weeks the Lions play the Bulldogs in Melbourne and the Power in Adelaide. Later in the season they head west again to play the Eagles, who have shown to be a much different prospect at Optus Stadium, and have an MCG date with Collingwood.
Among their remaining home fixtures are games against Sydney, Melbourne and GWS who all harbour top four aspirations.
It’s as difficult a draw as any still to come. The Lions must exit the bye round ready to roar, or risk their season going up in smoke.
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