The top bargain KFC SuperCoach defenders to consider for your team
There is amazing value on offer in defence for KFC SuperCoach players and a rookie crisis brewing, it could be very important for Round 1. Tim Michell and Al Paton provide their verdicts on more than 20 mid-price backmen.
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Picking mid-pricers in SuperCoach is a dangerous path to tread.
But, if you navigate it successfully, it can come with huge rewards.
Those who invested in James Worpel at $395,700 last year were richly rewarded, as were coaches who took a punt on Zac Williams in defence at $407,800.
Sam Docherty is far and away the most-popular mid-price defender of 2020 as he returns from two knee reconstructions.
Tom Doedee still features in more than 10 per cent of teams despite a knee setback, while Dylan Roberton has firmed for Round 1 and increased in popularity.
Defence is the position most coaches are seeking value this year, but is it really the right move?
Tim Michell and Al Paton provide their verdicts on more than 20 of this year’s mid-price backmen.
Callum Mills (Sydney) $444,100 DEF 2019 avg: 81.8 Marsh Series scores: 105
Mills has threatened to break out every year since his 2016 debut with the hope of more midfield minutes to boost his scores. But it’s time we accept he’s a permanent halfback. He did some nice things in the Bushfire Relief game and scored 74, which is right where he’s at.
Al Paton’s verdict: Won’t be sucking me in this year. Good player, but not for SuperCoach.
Kade Simpson (Carlton) $442,600 DEF 2019 avg: 81.5 Marsh Series scores: 85, 65
The Carlton veteran was a SuperCoach staple in previous years, averaging 92.7 or more every season from 2009-2018. But his average tumbled from 105 in 2018 to 81.5 last year and it’s hard to make a strong case for Simpson when there’s so many other value KFC SuperCoach defenders. Look at someone like Hunter Clark or his teammate Sam Docherty instead.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He’ll go down in the KFC SuperCoach defensive hall of fame but don’t start Simpson this year.
Sam Docherty (Carlton) $436,100 DEF 2019 avg: N/A. Marsh Series scores: 69, 105
The topscoring SuperCoach defender of 2016-17 is available as a mid-pricer – that’s an offer too good to pass up. The fact he hasn’t played in two years means we should temper our expectations a bit but should only get better as the year progresses.
Al Paton’s verdict: Unlikely to average 115 but still a good shot to be a top-six defender. Lock him in.
Sydney Stack (Richmond) $435,100 DEF 2019 avg: 80.1 Marsh Series scores: 79, 45
Stack was one of the SuperCoach rookies of 2019 after being signed during the supplemental period by the Tigers. He made an instant impression with 108 on debut and posted four other tons to finish with an average of 80.1. More importantly, he generated $345,400 for those who took the punt at a basement price. Stack only scored less than 63 twice which is huge for a first-year player.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He’s an intriguing option. Stack was a midfielder last season when he entered SuperCoach as a $102k rookie but has been reassigned as a defender. On talent alone he should be in Richmond’s best 22, but there’s enough questions about his job security not to start him. The Tigers won last year’s VFL premiership and only lost Brandon Ellis from their senior team.
Michael Hurley (Essendon) $432,900 DEF 2019 avg: 79.7 Marsh Series scores: 43, 116
The Bomber was a premium SuperCoach scorer in 2017 when he averaged 103 points a game, and his 91 average the next year wasn’t too bad. Last year his scoring nosedived as his previous high disposal numbers dried up. Can he bounce back?
Al Paton’s verdict: Injuries to Bombers defenders headlined by Patrick Ambrose don’t help him. Pass.
Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) $431,900 DEF 2019 avg: 79.5 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 134
The Magpies high-flyer had averaged 91.6-94.1 in three consecutive seasons before dropping to 79.5 last year. There appeared to be a direct correlation between Darcy Moore’s presence in Collingwood’s back six and Howe’s totals tumbling. He registered five scores of 118 or more in 17 games in 2018 but didn’t once reach that mark last season — his top score of four tons was 115.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Howe was a solid servant from 2016-2018 but Darcy Moore’s emergence has diminished his SuperCoach relevance.
Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) $413,900 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 76.2 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 102
One of the best KFC SuperCoach picks of 2018 has turned into a very reliable performer for the Demons who can play at both ends – equating to a valuable defender-forward swing in fantasy. Fox Footy expert David King is tipping him to have a big year.
Al Paton’s verdict: Has averaged 75 and 76 in his two AFL seasons. Could be a handy late round selection in SuperCoach Draft.
Connor Blakely (Fremantle) $411,500 DEF 2019 avg: 75.8 Marsh Series scores: 75, DNP
The Docker was tipped as the next big thing in defence when he logged nine SuperCoach hundreds in the last 12 games of 2017. His average of 85.1 in 2018 was serviceable before he dropped by 9.3 points to 75.8 last year. There were encouraging signs when he attended the fourth-most centre bounces for Fremantle in the Marsh Series against Carlton, but that was with Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters absent. Blakely had 21 disposals, six marks, three inside 50s and 75 points in that game.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’ve been tempted before, but not this year. Don’t be surprised if Dylan Roberton averages just as much and he’s $150,000 cheaper.
Wayne Milera (Adelaide) $402,500 DEF-MID 2019 avg: 74.1 Marsh Series scores: 103, 57
KFC SuperCoach breakout dreams are all about players like Milera, who looks capable of anything if he can settle at halfback and stay fit. If you pick him and it comes off you’ll feel like a genius, but the strike rate on getting these picks right isn’t high.
Al Paton’s verdict: Scored 100-plus three times last year and had another three in the 40s. I’m not brave enough.
Hunter Clark (St Kilda) $402,200 DEF 2019 avg: 74.1 Marsh Series scores: 97, 56
Clark was one of the beneficiaries of Brett Ratten taking charge at Moorabbin midway through last season. The No. 7 draft pick from 2017 was thrust into a halfback role by Ratten and averaged 85.4 from Round 15 onwards. There’s plenty of questions about how the Saints line-up in Round 1 with so many new faces. But it would be a huge shock if Clark wasn’t deployed in the quarterback role he performed so effectively under Ratten’s watch.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’m a huge fan, evidenced by trading Clark in late last year when he was on a hot streak. But can you start him and Sam Docherty? If we’re going to get five-six defensive rookies to pick from in Round 1, there’s unlikely to be space for two players in the $400,000-$450,000 price range.
Alex Witherden (Brisbane Lions) $392,800 DEF 2019 avg: 72.3 Marsh Series scores: 49, 62
Looked like he was ready to become the next premium defender in KFC SuperCoach when he averaged 87 in his debut season, but he has gone backwards in the two years since. Needs to boot Daniel Rich off kick-out duties.
Al Paton’s verdict: Last year (average 72) was a bit of a mystery. Should improve, but by how much?
Zach Tuohy (Geelong) $386,300 DEF 2019 avg: 71.1 Marsh Series scores: 72, 112
The Irishman never quite got to premium status in KFC SuperCoach, hitting his peak in 2017 when he averaged 88.1. He’s dropped to 84.8 and 71.1 in recent years, scoring less than 60 five times in his 15 games in 2019. Tuohy’s dip coincided with Tom Stewart’s emergence as a SuperCoach premium. Stewart jumped from an 85.3 average in 2018 to 98.2 last year. At 30, Tuohy is unlikely to launch back above 80 again.
Tim Michell’s verdict: There’s much cheaper options who are likely to average more than Tuohy such as Dylan Roberton.
James Aish (Fremantle) $353,000 DEF 2019 avg: 65 Marsh Series scores: 138, DNP
Burst on to the SuperCoach radar with a huge opening game of the Marsh Series, but has all the signs of a pre-season trap. Could flourish at a new club but bear in mind his SuperCoach averages over his six-year career — 71, 51, 63, 57, 68, 65.
Al Paton’s verdict: Nooooooo.
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Jayden Short (Richmond) $349,300 DEF 2019 avg: 64.3 Marsh Series scores: 113, 73
The small defender was a player expected to take another jump after increasing his output from 58.2 points a game in 2017 to 85.8 in 2018. An elbow injury in Round 3 kept him out until Round 15 last season and he never quite got going despite being an important member of the Tigers’ premiership backline. If he is going to be back on kick-in duties, he could be this year’s best mid-price defensive smokie.
Tim Michell’s verdict: I’m seriously considering him after his impressive outing in the Marsh Series against Collingwood. Can I fit him and Adam Cerra though?
Jack Watts (Port Adelaide) $307,900 DEF 2019 avg: 81 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Footy’s forgotten man showed signs of flourishing in a SuperCoach-friendly role using his elite kicking skills out of the backline last year (scoring 90 in Round 1) before injury struck just two weeks into the season. Returns at a heavily discounted price.
Al Paton’s verdict: Don’t discount him, but we would need to see a strong showing in Marsh game two.
Adam Cerra (Fremantle) $338,900 DEF 2019 avg: 62.4 Marsh Series scores: 89, 71
The No. 5 draftee from 2017 is ready to take the next step after featuring in 41 games in the past two years under Ross Lyon. With a new game plan and Justin Longmuir at the helm, Cerra has been tipped to be one of the young guns to spend greater time in midfield. Against Carlton in the Dockers’ first Marsh Series match, Cerra had 19 disposals for 89 points from 67 per cent game time. He only averaged 62.4 last year, so it’ll take a big jump for him to become a premium.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Probably depends how many other Dockers mid-pricers you’re keen on. It’s unlikely Andrew Brayshaw, Blake Acres and Cerra can all transform from mid-pricers to premiums in the same year.
Grant Birchall (Brisbane Lions) $292,700 DEF 2019 avg: 77 Marsh Series scores: 46, 67
Birchall was a staple of plenty of KFC SuperCoach defences through Hawthorn’s golden era, averaging 90-plus from 2011-13 and 84 as recently as 2016. Since then he has played just eight games in three seasons due to injury.
Al Paton’s verdict: The Lions have a way of turning injury-cursed players into reliable performers (think Lincoln McCarthy, Allen Christensen), but at 32 there isn’t enough upside to justify the risk.
Sam Durdin (North Melbourne) $285,600 DEF 2019 avg: 52.6 Marsh Series scores: 67, DNP
Majak Daw will return to North Melbourne’s defence in one of the best stories of 2020, but there’s a spot up for grabs if Durdin is good enough. Drafted in 2014, he’s preparing for his sixth season at the Roos. He didn’t debut until 2017 and his tally of 10 matches last year was his most during his time at Arden St. He had three scores of 76-plus last year but also four of less than 50.
Tim Michell’s verdict: It’s hard to see him being a consistent enough scorer to be a SuperCoach factor. There’s better options at his price too.
Jack Lukosius (Gold Coast) $274,600 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 50.6 Marsh Series scores: 70, 58
The No. 2 draft pick found his feet in an intercepting role in defence later in 2019, resulting in dual-position status in KFC SuperCoach in 2020. Scores should continue trending upwards.
Al Paton’s verdict: Ask me again in 2022.
Tom Doedee (Adelaide) $273,700 DEF 2019 avg: 56 Marsh Series scores: DNP
The intercept defender was set to be one of the most-popular KFC SuperCoach picks of the year before a pre-season setback delayed his return from an ACL injury. He’s listed as being 1-3 weeks away, but the Crows are known for being cautious with players returning from injury. Doedee’s role suits SuperCoach, but unfortunately the time frame doesn’t. The 23-year-old averaged 82.2 from 20 games in 2018.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Doedee might be the perfect exit strategy if a mid-price defender doesn’t work out and he’s back about a month into the season.
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Isaac Quaynor (Collingwood) $261,700 DEF 2019 avg: 60.3 Marsh Series scores: DNP
The dashing Magpies teenager broke through for four games in his debut season but expect that number to climb sharply after a standout summer on the track. Was solid in the Pies’ practice match against Carlton but is listed as 1-2 weeks away (hip) on the club’s injury list.
Al Paton’s verdict: Likely SuperCoach star of the future, but you can’t start him if he’s not there in Round 1.
Dylan Roberton (St Kilda) $260,400 DEF 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: DNP, 60
Fingers crossed Roberton is good to go for Round 1 after a serious heart condition threatened his career. The St Kilda defender averaged a career-best 92.6 in his last full season in 2017, reaching 100 four times by Round 6. A repeat of that number would almost make him a season keeper at D6, although most coaches will start him in the hope of trading to a fallen premium when his price and break-even meet. The pre-season signs have been positive at he impressed in a trial match against Hawthorn in Gippsland.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Just about a lock if he’s fit for Round 1. Plays a perfect role for SuperCoach and comes $248,600 cheaper than he started 2018.
Dylan Roberton arguably the standout Saint, alongside Zak Jones in Morwell. One of only a handful of experienced players out there for the Saints. Ryan Byrnes and Jack Bytel starting in the centre square in the second half.
— St Kilda FC (@stkildafc) February 28, 2020
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Originally published as The top bargain KFC SuperCoach defenders to consider for your team
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