Seven starting forward line strategies for SuperCoach 2019
Dustin Martin, Lachie Whitfield ... then who? Selecting the right forwards in SuperCoach is tougher than ever this year, which means it’s never been more important to get your structure right.
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The forward line is shaping as the toughest position to predict in KFC SuperCoach for 2019.
The midfield is stacked with top-end talent, and most players are banking on all-conquering ruck duo Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn.
Up forward it’s a different story. Dustin Martin (58 per cent) and Lachie Whitfield (57 per cent) are locked into most teams, then it’s a lottery. The next most popular forwards are Michael Walters and Christian Petracca at 15 per cent.
There are a host of potential mid-price bargains who could prove steals or could blow up in our faces. How many can you take a risk on? And who do you pick?
The most important thing is to pick a structure you’re happy with then fill each slot with the best player available.
If you’re not sure where to start, here are seven forward line strategies you could employ this season. As with our analysis of other positions, players listed here can be interchanged with others of a similar price (the structure is what’s important), and you can assume the sample teams listed below all feature two basement-priced rookies on the bench ($123,900 or cheaper).
1. GUNS AND ROOKIES
The classic selection strategy in any position might be the best option up forward given the uncertainty around all the mid-pricers.
There aren’t too many genuine A-graders in this part of the ground after most of last season’s top-scoring forwards (Patrick Dangerfield, Travis Boak, Rowan Marshall and Co) were assigned to different positions for 2020.
But that means you can pick nearly all of the premiums that are left in a guns and rookies approach, which allows you to spread your cash between players most likely to punch out biggest scores with best rookies who have the best chance of scoring well and rising in value to fund future trades.
The concerns are missing out on all the mid-price value and finding enough talented rookies likely to get games early in the season. It helps that we can count 29-year-old Docker Stephen Hill as a rookie based on his price.
2. NO DUSTY
It would be a very bold move considering he is one of the most popular players in KFC SuperCoach in 2020, but there is an argument of leaving out Dustin Martin.
We know how good Dusty can be but his SuperCoach scores don’t always reflect the Tiger’s superstar status. Last season he averaged 99 and he has only finished one season with an average of 110 or more — his barnstorming 2017 campaign.
And he’s unlikely to reach those heights this year if he spends more time in the goalsquare, which is possible given his impact there and the development of Marlion Pickett in the midfield.
Leaving out Dusty frees up $453,000 — you’ll be hoping to trade him in at a lower price during the season. One problem with that theory is he loves playing Carlton in Round 1 — scoring 109, 139 and 159 in his past three season-openers.
3. MID-PRICE MAYHEM
The sheer number of mid-price options available in the forward line this year makes this a very tempting possibility.
The sample team below doesn’t include Devon Smith, Christian Petracca, Blake Acres and Tom Lynch, to name a few, who could all be premiums by the end of the season.
This approach spreads your spending across the six starting forward positions, covering you against putting unreliable rookies on the field.
However, this approach faces the same issue as mid-pricers everywhere. Picking the right mid-pricer is tough at the best of times, good luck getting the right six this season. And you need them all to average 100-plus for this to really pay off.
Plus you’re missing the scoring power of Lachie Whitfield and Dustin Martin.
4. BALANCED ATTACK
A bit of everything approach that allows you to pick the best expensive premiums, mid-pricers and rookies.
Most teams are locking in Whitfield and Martin and picking Aiden Bonar at an elevated price eases the risk of starting three rookies on the field.
The challenge might be finding another two rookies worth picking on your bench, and missing out on value selections like Devon Smith and Jack Steven.
5. RUCK INSURANCE
This strategy gives you some back-up in the ruck if one of your starting big men misses a week at any stage of the season.
We’ve been lucky that Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn have been so durable, but as Gawn’s pre-season injury scare showed an injury could happen at any time.
This strategy is especially advisable if you’re taking a punt on a cheaper ruckman like Sam Jacobs, who could leave you in a huge hole if he is rested to give Shane Mumford a run.
It requires selecting a dual-position ruck/forward in your forward line and a DPP as your third ruck.
This strategy only worth it if you believe the forward DPP is worth a spot as a starting forward in his own right, otherwise you’re sacrificing too many points each week.
And we have a surprise candidate in Hawthorn’s Jonathan Ceglar.
Ceglar has been a back-up ruck to Ben McEvoy but will take the No.1 ruck role this year as McEvoy is deployed in defence. While he has averaged in the 70s the past two seasons, history suggests he’s likely to be around the 90-mark — or possibly more — in 2020.
Apart from making him a value selection, the added benefit is he can swing into the ruck if needed. You will want to have a decent player on your forward bench to cover for Ceglar is he’s needed in that capacity, and you can go all-in on flexibility by picking North Melbourne’s two RUC/FWDs in Charlie Comben (who is unlikely to play, which is good for the vice-captain loophole) and Tristan Xerri (who might after scoring 98 against the Bulldogs in the Marsh Series).
And if you start with Grundy and Gawn, Ceglar can play in the ruck when they both have the bye in Round 13.
6. COOKIE CUTTER FORWARD LINE
It’s unusual that a stock standard KFC SuperCoach forward line includes three risky mid-pricers — but this is an unusual year.
You’ll notice the Whitfield-Martin one-two punch is pretty popular, then the next three slots are taken by three of the most popular mid-pricers — although Christian Petracca is competing strongly with Greenwood for that F3 spot based on his massive score in Melbourne’s opening Marsh Series match.
MORE SUPERCOACH TIPS
Seven selection strategies you can use to build a winning KFC SuperCoach team
Five strategies for selecting your KFC SuperCoach midfield in 2019
Five strategies for picking a winning KFC SuperCoach defence
The most popular KFC SuperCoach picks at every club
KFC SuperCoach Rookie Bible: Every potential cash cow for season 2020
Jack Steven and Devon Smith have both been premium SuperCoach scorers in the past, while Rankine is the most popular rookie selection of 2020 — but watch to ensure he’s picked in Round 1 after Gold Coast held him back during the pre-season.
This strategy isn’t terribly exciting but it is relatively low-risk considering most other players will be doing something similar, while leaving the door open for some creative mid-price fun.
7. FOR OLD TIME’S SAKE
This could be the last time we get the chance to pick the KFC SuperCoach GOAT Gary Ablett.
The most popular selection of the past decade is in just 1 per cent of teams as he enters the twilight of his incredible career, but it’s easy to forget he was the third-highest scoring forward of 2019 with scores including 130, 148 and 167.
He’s probably not going to produce as many of those this season and selecting him would be for nostalgia rather than chasing the $50,000 prize. The same goes for one-time superstars Robbie Gray and Lance Franklin, while Jack Riewoldt is underpriced and Taylor Walker could play on a wing this season. So who knows?
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Originally published as Seven starting forward line strategies for SuperCoach 2019
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