Tim Michell’s KFC SuperCoach 2.0 team reveal: Why I’ve reconsidered starting Dustin Martin

Dustin Martin is one of the first players picked in most SuperCoach sides. But expert Tim Michell thinks there’s enough evidence to start without one of the game’s biggest stars.

I’ve done enough backflips in the past month to warrant a Cirque du Soleil audition.

But considering my lack of athleticism, when I backflip, it involves KFC SuperCoach.

The two biggest changes in my team are the axing of Dustin Martin and Shannon Hurn.

I was rock solid on Hurn entering the New Year, but have reassessed and found the extra $30,000 to start Jake Lloyd.

The Swans ball magnet only averaged 92 in the last five rounds of 2019, yet still finished the campaign with 232 points more than the No. 2 defender — Tom Stewart.

I was foolish to overlook Hurn last year but not starting Lloyd could have more disastrous consequences.

Max Gawn’s knee injury has thrown a huge spanner in the works and forced several changes I wasn’t expecting.

My rucks were the one area I was completely sold on — the set and forget Gawn and Grundy combination.

But I’ve had to reassess with Gawn in doubt for Round 1 and think Sam Jacobs presents the best value of the mid-priced options after being traded from Adelaide to GWS.

Dustin Martin averaged 86 points per 100 minutes playing as a forward last year.

He’s not going to rediscover his scoring heights of 2014 when he averaged 115.4 but will do enough to be a stopgap while Gawn regains full fitness.

No Martin is a huge risk, but one I’ve taken after serious consideration.

The Brownlow medallist spent 43.1 per cent of games playing as a forward last season, a split which has led to him gaining FWD-MID status.

His SuperCoach average was as low as it has been since 2014 (100), largely down to the amount of time he spent in attack.

For every 100 minutes Martin spent in midfield, he averaged 106.5 points.

For every 100 minutes he spent in attack, he averaged 85.9 points.

Martin has only averaged more than 110 once, his barnstorming Brownlow Medal campaign.

In seasons where he has spent more than 30 per cent of time forward, his highest average is 105 in 2015.

Of course, the Martin who averaged 88 playing in attack for 45 per cent of games in 2012 is a very different player to the one who tore last year’s Grand Final to shreds.

As Josh Dunkley, Patrick Dangerfield, Travis Boak, Tim Kelly, Rowan Marshall and Scott Lycett have lost forward eligibility, Martin’s 2019 average of 99.9 ranks third of this year’s forwards behind Lachie Whitfield (111.2) and Michael Walters (100.8).

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Based on their ceilings, I’d prefer Walters at F2 if you are tossing up between the two premium options.

The Tiger had three scores above 120+ last year with a season high of 138.

Walters went 120+ four times with a top score of 158.

There’s little between them, but Walters’ output average increased by 13 points a game last year, while Martin’s went down by four points.

I prefer Hugh Greenwood, who posted monster scores as a midfielder playing in the SANFL and seems likely to go to another level with greater opportunity on the Gold Coast.

TIM MICHELL’S SUPERCOACH TEAM 2.0

Tim Michell's new-look SuperCoach team.

DEFENCE

IN: Jake Lloyd, Jez McLennan, Tom Stewart, Hunter Clark

OUT: Dylan Roberton, Shannon Hurn, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Jez McLennan

Jake Lloyd had a below-par finish to 2019 for the lofty standards he has set and still finished well clear of the next best defender — Tom Stewart. Hard to leave him out regardless of price tag. The extra money from downgrading Gawn to Jacobs allowed me to upgrade DBJ to Stewart, although I still think the Power rising star is a quality pick. I finished last year with Hunter Clark in my side and am extremely bullish about his role as St Kilda’s go-to man from defence.

Jake Lloyd has replaced Shannon Hurn as Tim Michell’s top SuperCoach defender.

MIDFIELD

IN: Patrick Dangerfield, Clayton Oliver, Andrew Gaff, Jackson Mead, Ned McHenry

OUT: Elliot Yeo, Stephen Coniglio, Jack Steven (FWD), Sam Philp, Harry Schoenberg

Clayton Oliver couldn’t have had much more go wrong last year yet still averaged 109.4, while Dangerfield’s average of 115.2 made him a top-10 midfielder. The rookies are a movable feast at this time of year but Ned McHenry appears to be ahead of Harry Schoenberg for a likely Round 1 berth at Adelaide. I considered Tim Kelly but Gaff won’t get tagged on a wing and is a consistent SuperCoach scorer.

RUCKS

OUT: Max Gawn

IN: Sam Jacobs

I wouldn’t have even considered going without Gawn and Grundy had the Demons big man not hurt his knee. Gawn might be fit for Round 1, but you have to wonder how long it will take him to hit peak fitness. Starting Jacobs instead has allowed me to turn Ed Curnow into Andrew Gaff and Darcy Byrne-Jones into Tom Stewart. Fingers crossed those extra points will compensate for not having Gawn at the start.

Hugh Greenwood played as a midfielder in his six SANFL games last season. His last four #SuperCoach scores were:

159
126
119
156

He averaged 125 points overall. #2020AFLProspectus

— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) January 29, 2020

FORWARDS

IN: Hugh Greenwood, Jack Steven, Stephen Hill, Nathan Kreuger, Connor Budarick

OUT: Dustin Martin, Jordan Dawson, Sam Flanders, Shane McAdam, Dylan Williams

Some big changes in attack. Greenwood is cheap for his potential output and posted huge numbers when he played as an inside midfielder in the SANFL. Not picking Stephen Hill was an oversight and Jack Steven will average more than Jordan Dawson if he stays fit. Martin is a player I’m willing to risk — for now.

Originally published as Tim Michell’s KFC SuperCoach 2.0 team reveal: Why I’ve reconsidered starting Dustin Martin