KFC SuperCoach’s Round 1 flops who deserve a second chance
How much weight can you place on one round of AFL? As KFC SuperCoaches prepare for football’s return, these are the big guns who disappointed in Round 1 to hold onto and those you can cut loose.
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Every KFC SuperCoach has been asking the same question.
How much weight should I place on one of the most unusual rounds of football in AFL history?
Coaches were left scrambling during the opening round’s rolling lockout as we came to terms with the impact of 16-minute quarters on Australia’s favourite fantasy game.
The greatest take away was the dominance of ruckmen as 10 of the 24 big men who featured posted KFC SuperCoach hundreds.
To put those numbers in perspective, only four ruckmen averaged more than 100 points last year (Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, Todd Goldstein and Scott Lycett — Rowan Marshall was listed as a forward).
History suggests thousands of coaches will fall into the temptation to sideways trade premiums who failed to fire in Round 1 and carry huge break evens as a result.
But past seasons have taught us that strategy is fraught with danger.
Those who traded Grundy (81 points) and Gawn (87 points) after Round 1 flops last year were left to rue punting one, or both, of the year’s top-two scorers.
Grundy’s next three scores were 137, 132 and 160, while Gawn posted 116, 126 and 113.
The lesson every KFC SuperCoach should take from the opening month of last season is to avoid making rash decisions on premiums.
Josh Dunkley took until Round 7 to break through with a hundred last year, losing $61,800.
The Western Bulldogs midfielder then announced himself as a SuperCoach premium with 14 tons in the last 16 matches, soaring to $662,500 by Round 20.
While not in the same stratosphere as Grundy and Gawn, Dunkley’s emergence emphasised the importance of backing in proven scorers.
Gawn (break even 173), Dunkley (BE 175), Marcus Bontempelli (BE 161), Patrick Dangerfield (BE 156), Jack Macrae (BE 151) and Jake Lloyd (BE 148) headline the big guns likely to lose value after Round 2.
But when you’re almost certain to want them later in the season, is it really worth trading a star just to save a few dollars?
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BACK THEM
Max Gawn (Melbourne) $697,100 RUC — 93 points BE: 173
The Demons skipper lost the ruck battle to Nic Naitanui (100 points) in Round 1. The last time Gawn scored less than 100, in Round 21 last season (99), he posted 119 and 212 the next two weeks. Gawn was under an injury cloud entering the season after suffering a pre-season knee setback, yet still had 14 disposals and 18 hit outs. He’ll be up against Carlton’s back-up ruckman Marc Pittonet in Round 2 who has played seven games. A monster return beckons.
Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs) $632,400 MID — 67 points BE: 175
What did we learn last year? Western Bulldogs were soundly beaten by Collingwood in Round 1, but it’s tough to imagine a side considered a premiership contender playing as badly again. The Dogs were scheduled to play 12 matches at Marvel Stadium this year, where Dunkley averaged 124.1 in 2019. While that fixture has changed, Dunkley still has one of the highest ceilings of any midfielder.
Jake Lloyd (Sydney) $591,400 DEF — 77 points BE: 148
Lloyd finished last season with four scores of less than 90 in his last five matches and his Round 1 total of 77 was only the third time since the start of 2018 he’s fallen below 80. There was a pre-season question mark on whether the emergence of Jordan Dawson would limit his output. Lloyd’s 17 disposals against Adelaide were well down on his average of 30.8 from last year but he’s worth another chance based on his scoring history.
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) $623,000 MID — 76 points BE: 161
The new Western Bulldogs skipper struggled to have his usual impact in Round 1 as Collingwood’s midfielders took a stranglehold. Bontempelli lifted his average from 104 to 114 last season and most of the 48,000 coaches who started him expected him to confirm himself as one of KFC SuperCoach’s top scorers. Don’t jump off based on one poor outing.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) $625,500 MID — 83 points BE: 156
Don’t have any concerns about Dangerfield’s season-opening score of 83. The Brownlow medallist won’t have to contend with KFC SuperCoach nemesis Matt De Boer again and still managed 16 disposals against the Giants. The Cats will play all of their home games at GMHBA Stadium, where Dangerfield averaged 122 points last season. Geelong also has last year’s bottom-three — Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast — in consecutive games from rounds 3-5.
Luke Ryan (Fremantle) $520,400 DEF — 52 points BE: 146
While intercept defenders such as Jeremy Howe (156), Shannon Hurn (152) and Sam Docherty (117) flourished in Round 1, Ryan struggled with 11 disposals and one mark against Essendon. Ryan averaged 20.4 disposals and 5.2 marks last season and is the Dockers’ designated kick-in player. He shouldn’t score this poorly again.
Tim Kelly (West Coast) $561,800 MID — 86 points BE: 129
The star recruit had 19 possessions on debut as an Eagle and West Coast should perform strongly in a Queensland hub which features four non-finalists from last year. Kelly has had more time to build greater synergy with his new teammates and will only get better feeding off Nic Naitanui.
Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) $668,900 MID — 103 points BE: 152
Why would you even think about trading the top KFC SuperCoach midfielder of the past two years? He was always likely to lose some value from such a high starting price, so that shouldn’t be an issue.
James Sicily (Hawthorn) $509,500 DEF — 70 points BE: 124
Sicily was tipped to be the beneficiary of Hawthorn’s new-look forward line, avoiding the attacking swing which curtailed his KFC SuperCoach scoring last year. His 17-disposal, five-mark game against Brisbane Lions was below-par, but hardly enough reason for a panic trade.
Josh Kelly (GWS Giants) $637,700 MID — 102 points BE: 142
See the above advice on Jack Macrae. You don’t trade the best players in the game due to a high break even. Even more so after one round. If anything, Kelly’s value has increased as he only has to get through another 16 games. The only question mark over the GWS star in recent years has been durability.
SACK THEM
Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) $598,700 RUC — 92 points BE: 136
Our first look at the Marshall-Paddy Ryder partnership suggested what most suspected — KFC SuperCoach points will be split between the two Saints ruckmen. Marshall scored 92 and Ryder 79 against North Melbourne, numbers which won’t put either close to Gawn and Grundy come season’s end.
Lachie Hunter (Western Bulldogs) $517,400 MID — 84 points BE: 114
Hunter has been handed a four-game suspension for an alleged drink-driving offence during lockdown. That puts a line through him as a KFC SuperCoach option and the 1033 coaches who chose Hunter should be planning to upgrade him.
Elliot Yeo (West Coast) $584,400 MID — 57 points BE: 165
The gap between Yeo and top-line stars such as Tom Mitchell ($630,900) and Lachie Neale ($658,500) is close enough to make the move before Round 2. If Mitchell (BE 122) or Neale (BE 94) rise in value, you’ll be burning more of your bank to upgrade Yeo unless he can match his monster break even.
Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions) $579,100 MID — 52 points BE: 168
While Zorko only features in 3352 teams, those with the Brisbane Lions skipper should be making plans to move him on. Like Yeo, the gap between Zorko and the top echelon of midfielders is set to grow in rounds two and three as prices change.
Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) $473,800 FWD — 66 points BE: 115
The explosive Magpie’s best KFC SuperCoach season average was 87.8 two years ago. Unless he can increase that figure by about 10 points, he won’t be close to a top-six forward come season’s end. It doesn’t help his cause that this year’s best rookies are in attack and many coaches need to make room for Sam Sturt, Curtis Taylor and co.
Matt Crouch (Adelaide) $563,000 MID — 68 points BE: 146
Crouch’s durability has been a question mark after playing 18 and 19 matches in the past two years. There’s logic in jumping off now and you could make more than $120,000 by downgrading the Crows on-baller to Jack Viney, who topscored in Round 1 with 186. Crouch is projected to lose $23,000 after Round 2, while Viney will rise by more than $50,000 if he scores 100.
Nic Newman (Carlton) $524,800 DEF — 39 points BE: 161
Newman dislocated his elbow in Round 1 against Richmond and was restricted to 39 points as a result. He’ll be back for Round 2 due to the 81-day delay in the AFL season, but is projected to lose $38,000. Trade him to teammate Sam Docherty, who is projected to climb by $30,000, if you failed to start the Carlton co-captain.
Darcy MacPherson (Gold Coast) $443,800 FWD-MID — 56 points BE: 113
More than 16,000 coaches bought into the pre-season hype surrounding MacPherson, who dominated the Marsh Series (average 130). Unfortunately, his output plummeted in Round 1 and he’ll need to deliver in Round 2 just to hold value. There’s a wealth of potential get-out options after Chad Wingard (131), Hugh Greenwood (116), Jack Martin (107) and Christian Petracca (105) fired in their respective season openers.
Darcy Parish (Essendon) $465,400 FWD-MID — 53 points BE: 124
Another mid-forward who starred in pre-season but failed to reach the same heights in Round 1. Lachie Whitfield, Dustin Martin and Devon Smith are this year’s locks up forward and most coaches will complement them with rookies such as Sturt, Taylor and Izak Rankine to generate cash. Does that leave room for Parish? It’s unlikely.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach’s Round 1 flops who deserve a second chance
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