KFC SuperCoach winners and losers from AFL COVID-19 shutdown
More than 80 days will have passed since the last game of AFL when footy returns on June 11. It’s been a long wait for KFC SuperCoaches and plenty has changed. Will two of the most-popular rookies make the cut for Round 2?
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A lot can change in 81 days.
The AFL’s COVID-19 shutdown — from March 22 to June 11 — has put a host of relevant KFC SuperCoach players in the frame for Round 2 selection.
Collingwood’s Adam Treloar, who averaged 113.4 points last year, was tipped to be one of the greatest beneficiaries from the long lay-off after missing Round 1 with a hamstring strain.
But the Magpies ball magnet is expected to miss Round 2 after suffering calf tightness at training.
It was a blow for those who were considering the prolific on-baller as a point of difference selection in KFC SuperCoach.
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Treloar (1.5 per cent) is the only KFC SuperCoach midfielder worth more than $600,000 who features in less than 10 per cent of teams.
KFC SuperCoaches will hope Fremantle’s Stephen Hill ($190,600, DEF-FWD), Gold Coast’s Izak Rankine ($123,900, FWD), Adelaide’s Tom Doedee ($263,700, DEF) and Essendon’s Mitch Hibberd ($114,400, MID) earn selection for Round 2 after injury delayed their respective campaigns.
No. 3 draft pick Rankine was set to be one of the most-popular picks of 2020 before missing Round 1 with a hamstring issue, while Hill has durability concerns but has averaged 80 points or more in six of the past eight years.
Longmuir on players’ recovery: Blake Acres has stepped into full training. David Mundy was ready for round two. Nathan Wilson has pulled up well and Stephen Hill is about a week away from full training #foreverfreo
— Fremantle Dockers (@freodockers) May 20, 2020
While selection is difficult to predict after more than 80 days without football, Essendon defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (47.7 per cent of teams) and GWS midfielder Tom Green (60.3 per cent) are the popular selections in danger due to returning stars.
Zerk-Thatcher could be squeezed out by the return of Cale Hooker and Patrick Ambrose, while Callan Ward’s recovery from a knee injury could spell trouble for more than 96,000 KFC SuperCoaches who started with Green.
These are the biggest KFC SuperCoach winners and losers from the COVID-19 shutdown.
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WINNERS
Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) $630,900 MID
The Brownlow medallist allayed any fears of a slow start after a broken leg when he had 25 possessions, nine clearances and scored 119 KFC SuperCoach points. While he’s only played one game in the past 20 months, Mitchell said the AFL’s shutdown period had given him extra time to add strength to his left leg. “The last few months I have been able to do some more strengthening of that leg and get it to a better level to be able to perform, hopefully, at a better level,” he told Channel 7 recently. Look out.
Izak Rankine (Gold Coast) $123,900 FWD
The most anticipated debut of 2020 for KFC SuperCoaches seems certain to take place in Round 2. Rankine was listed at $198,300 last year after being drafted by Gold Coast with pick No.3. After hamstring issues delayed his debut, the South Australian is available for $74,400 less this year. Rankine already features in 20 per cent of teams despite missing Round 1 with a hamstring strain. If he’d been available, he would have rivalled Marlion Pickett (77.3 per cent) for popularity.
.@GoldCoastSUNS rookie Izak Rankine is primed to make his @AFL debut when the season resumes. Overcoming numerous setbacks, he believes he’s ready to finally crack the big time. https://t.co/tIEQ9K5sus @mitchkroehn #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/toeXTzQoh8
— 7NEWS Gold Coast (@7NewsGoldCoast) May 20, 2020
Nic Naitanui (West Coast) $457,800 RUC
The Eagles ruckman had the best points-per-minute ratio of any player last year at 1.37. Knee problems have restricted Naitanui to 34 games since the start of 2016. But as an explosive big man, Naitanui looms as one of the major beneficiaries from quarters being cut to 16 minutes plus time on. He’ll only have to get through another 16 games and took the honours over Max Gawn (93 points to 100) in Round 1. His likely match-ups in the Queensland hub against Jarrod Witts, Scott Lycett, Reilly O’Brien and Stefan Martin appeal.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) $625,500 MID
Dangerfield and the Cats are one of the biggest winners from the new fixture. The absence of crowds will enable Geelong to play each of their home games at GMHBA Stadium, where the Brownlow medallist has an imperious record. Dangerfield averaged 122.4 at Geelong’s home ground last season, with Tom Stewart (108.1) the next best. The Cats play Hawthorn, Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast in the next month — that’s last year’s bottom-three teams in consecutive rounds. Strap yourselves in. We’re about to enter the Danger zone.
Harley Bennell (Melbourne) $123,900 MID
A comeback which appeared a remote chance of being fulfilled in March is now a genuine possibility. Bennell suffered a calf setback in late January and it was suggested his best-case scenario was a mid-year return. Bennell has ramped up his training during the COVID-19 shutdown and Demons coach Simon Goodwin said in April he expected the ex-Sun and Docker would be in the selection mix “after the first few weeks.” Bennell averaged 101.7 in 2015 but has only played two games since.
Tom Doedee (Adelaide) $273,700 DEF
A minor setback in his recovery from a knee injury cost Doedee the chance to return in Round 1. Had he been available, the Crows defender would have been a popular KFC SuperCoach selection at the lower-end of mid-price territory. Doedee recently told media he was “good to go”. “It feels like forever since I’ve played a game of footy … thankfully everything that happened before Round 1 is now behind me,” he said. Doedee averaged 82.2 in his maiden AFL campaign, which included six tons.
Max Gawn (Melbourne) $697,100 RUC
The Demons skipper would have faced Sam Jacobs, Sean Darcy, Rowan Marshall and Jarrod Witts in the next month had the AFL fixture remained the same. Instead, Gawn will come up against the untried Marc Pittonet, Tom Bellchambers or Andrew Phillips, Darcy Fort or Rhys Stanley, and Sam Naismith. A break even of 173 ahead of Round 2 is reason to consider trading Gawn, but he could be in for a massive month courtesy of the revamped fixture.
SuperCoach players looking at trading Max Gawn for cheapie Sam Naismith may need to reconsider.
— Dan Batten (@danbatten_) May 24, 2020
Gawn likely to be up against Marc Pittonet in R2, and managed 93 #SuperCoach points in R1 from 14 disposals and just 18 hitouts vs NicNat.
Massive first game back on the cards.
Stephen Hill (Fremantle) $190,600 DEF-FWD
Dockers veteran Hill is expected to resume full training this week as he bids to return to the Fremantle team in Round 2. Hill suffered a quad injury in the Marsh Series which caused most KFC SuperCoaches to rule a line through him. His durability is a worry, but can we really afford to overlook a player under $200,000 who averaged 80 or more between 2012-17? Blake Acres ($384,400, FWD-MID) has overcome a hamstring injury and is in line to make his Docker debut.
Mitch Hibberd (Essendon) $114,400 MID
Hibberd earned a second opportunity at AFL level by dominating in the VFL with Williamstown last year. The former Roo was tipped to add physicality to the Bombers’ midfield before undergoing knee surgery in late January. His price won’t rise until Round 4 at the earliest, giving KFC SuperCoaches a chance to assess his role if he makes his Essendon debut in Round 2.
Zac Williams (GWS Giants) $551,700 DEF
Grand Finalist GWS could be bolstered by the return of Zac Williams and Callan Ward for Round 2. Williams missed the Giants’ opening-round victory over Geelong due to an achilles problem, while Ward has recovered from an ACL tear. Williams stamped himself as one of the premier defenders in KFC SuperCoach last season, averaging 101.6 (ranked fifth). His role will be crucial to his SuperCoach relevance, as he relished greater midfield time in the absence of Ward and new skipper Stephen Coniglio last year.
Lance Franklin (Sydney) $394,200 FWD
Buddy is back. Franklin missed Round 1 as he continued his recovery from knee surgery, but footy’s delay has worked in favour of the Swans superstar. Franklin would have been eyeing Sydney’s original draw with excitement, with the Swans scheduled to take on Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Carlton. He battled through 10 games last year, averaging 72.6 points. But if there’s evidence he’s back to his best, he could be a steal at that price.
Jackson Mead (Port Adelaide) $117,300 MID
Port Adelaide took a cautious approach with No. 25 draft pick Mead after his push for a Round 1 debut was halted by a hamstring niggle. The father-son selection may not figure immediately for a team which performed strongly in the opening round, but looms as an ideal downgrade or get-out option if another KFC SuperCoach rookie bombs.
KH: Jackson Mead is still a week or two away. Like all hamstring niggles we're managing him throughout training. We won't rush him back.#pafclive
— Port Adelaide FC (@PAFC) March 19, 2020
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LOSERS
Tom Green (GWS Giants) $166,800 MID
Might be harsh to suggest top-10 draftee Tom Green will be dropped after one game, but the competition for midfield spots at the Giants is fierce. Callan Ward will likely return after missing Round 1, while Jackson Hately missed selection despite an impressive pre-season. No. 4 draftee Lachlan Ash was also an emergency in the opening round. Green had six possessions in his first AFL game and the return of Ward and Zac Williams could spell trouble for his chances of a Round 2 berth. He features in 96,150 KFC SuperCoach teams.
Fremantle’s fringe rookies: Hayden Young $180,300 DEF, Tobe Watson $123,900 DEF and Caleb Serong $175,800 MID
Hard to predict what first-year coach Justin Longmuir will do at the selection table, although he'll certainly have more options in Round 2 than he did in his first game in charge. Top-10 draftee Hayden Young was said to be in the mix for a Round 1 debut before a setback late in pre-season. Caleb Serong and Tobe Watson were also emergencies in Round 1. The Dockers could regain Stephen Hill, David Mundy and Nathan Wilson, while Blake Acres is in line to debut after crossing from St Kilda. That will likely push the rookie trio further down the pecking order, although Young is highly-rated.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Essendon) $189,000 DEF
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher was one of the breakout players of this year’s Marsh Series and filled the void left by Cale Hooker and Patrick Ambrose in Essendon’s defence in Round 1. Hooker is set to be available after being sidelined by a hip injury, while Patrick Ambrose (knee) returned to full training last week. Hooker, Ambrose and Michael Hurley are the Bombers’ first-choice defensive trio and 76,000 coaches who started with Zerk-Thatcher should be making contingency plans. Docker Stephen Hill ($190,600) is only $1,600 more expensive.
Fischer McAsey (Adelaide) $184,800 DEF
Is No.6 draft pick McAsey the player to make way for Doedee’s return? The young backman and Daniel Talia were the key defenders who featured against Sydney. At 197cm he’s not exactly a like-for-like swap with Doedee (188cm) and McAsey’s 35,189 owners will be hopeful he holds his spot despite only scoring 16 in Round 1. If he’s named, it will be an encouraging sign for his job security in a year where defensive rookies are scarce.
Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions) $117,300 MID and Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions) $147,700 DEF-MID
Deven Robertson made his Brisbane debut after Grant Birchall was a late withdrawal in Round 1. The Lions had a full compliment of players to pick from for their season opener against Hawthorn and popular KFC SuperCoach rookies Robertson (30.1 per cent of teams) and Brandon Starcevich (44.7 per cent of teams) made the cut. Stefan Martin (knee) and Birchall (hamstring) are expected to be available for Round 2 and one of Robertson and Starcevich is likely to make way for the former Hawk. If Chris Fagan makes two changes to the team which lost to Hawthorn, both could be squeezed out.
Isaac Cumming (GWS Giants) $245,000 DEF
Is Isaac Cumming the player pushed out by the return of Zac Williams at GWS? Almost 8000 KFC SuperCoaches started with the fringe Giant after he produced scores of 86 and 111 in pre-season. His Round 1 score of 57 was serviceable, but a break even of 36 suggests Cumming won’t be a great money maker. Dylan Roberton ($260,400) would have been an obvious trade, but a score of 26 on his return was a worry. Coaches might have to trade up for Tom Doedee ($273,700) or take a risk on Stephen Hill ($190,600) if Cumming misses out.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach winners and losers from AFL COVID-19 shutdown