KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on some of the big Round 2 trade dilemmas
Viney or Howe? Dangerfield or Neale? Doedee or Hill? And what to do about Sam Naismith? The Phantom gives his verdict on some of the big Round 2 KFC SuperCoach trade calls
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The countdown to Round 2 is on SuperCoaches and it’s time to start refining your trade plans.
Of course, you will need to leave yourself room to move, depending on what happens at team selection, but it’s time to start making the big calls. And I’m here to help.
Sam Naismith (Syd – $251,500 RUCK) – yes/no
In his first senior game since the 2017 semi-final loss to Geelong, the 27-year-old had the better of Crow Reilly O’Brien, finishing with 11 disposals, 10 hitouts-to-advantage, eight contested possessions and 121 SuperCoach points.
With a 100-point score against the Bombers, Naismith’s price will rise by more than $50k following Round 2. A similar score the following week will result in a $370k price tag – and a cash injection of $120k – by Round 3.
Sure, it’s only a one-game sample but the ruckmen dominated SuperCoach in Round 1 and, as the Swans’ clear No. 1 big man, Naismith will always be around the ball – a key to scoring in reduced game-time.
If you started him in March, well played.
But for those who didn’t, how do you fit him in?
For Brodie Grundy?
No.
For Max Gawn?
Now this is the question many SuperCoaches are still struggling to answer. The cash injection is tempting and it’s one which might let you add another premium elsewhere.
But there’s a chance Gawn could reach his 173-point breakeven against Carlton’s back-up big man Marc Pittonet in Round 2. Then, in the two matches following the clash with the Blues, he’s likely to be up against Tom Bellchambers and Darcy Fort, meaning the prices of Gawn and Naismith are unlikely to get anywhere close to meeting in the short-term. And that’s important to note because the end-goal of the trade would be to bring Gawn back in when Naismith peaks in price.
Sure, the trade will give you a chance to inject a premium in, say, the midfield, but you’re still likely to get there quicker – and cheaper – by waiting for a basement-price cash cow to mature.
And, you can’t forget about points. Given the fixture, Gawn’s next month could be vital to your overall ranking. If you’ve skimmed through, the short answer is probably not.
For Nic Naitanui?
With Tom Hickey in the side, Naitanui’s game-time didn’t increase like many – The Phantom included – were expecting in Round 1. But, like he has done for most of his career, despite just 60 per cent of the game against the Demons, the athletic big man posted a three-figure score.
Even if his game-time doesn’t increase, the shortened quarters and reduced season should still benefit Naitanui. Hickey’s no guarantee to be there every week, either.
But if the plan is to eventually have Gawn at R2 anyway, Naismith is your man. His price won’t be far behind that of the West Coast star and the $200k could allow to solve problems in defence. It’s not a must-do but there’s plenty of value in the move.
For Tim English, Reilly O’Brien or Rowan Marshall?
With extra trades this year, that is almost a must-do ahead of Round 2. Your money is better spent elsewhere.
At R3?
If you’re able to fix all of your issues, which includes making sure you have the best basement-price cash cows, and still have the option to trade in Naismith at R3, it’s something you should consider.
I wouldn’t base your whole trade plan around it but, at this point, maybe there’s more value in playing a floating donut in defence and taking advantage of Naismith’s steep price rise.
And hopefully there’s more rookie-price options in defence when it comes time to cash out.
Tom Doedee ($273,700 Def) or Stephen Hill ($190,600 Def-Fwd)
After both missed Round 1, who can you trust more?
The 23-year-old defender who hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in the opening round of 2019 or the injury-plagued 29-year-old who has made just 16 senior appearances since 2018?
On that information alone, it has to be Doedee, who has declared himself “good to go” for Round 2. And his scoring history paints a good picture, too. If you take out the injury-affected 24 against Brisbane, the versatile Doedee averaged 85 points per game in his debut season.
But Hill, who is back in full training after hurting his squad – again – late in the pre-season, averaged 86, 96, 96, 90 and 80 in the five years prior to 2018. And the highly-skilled Docker is available for $83k less.
If both are named for Round 2, in a season when SuperCoaches have more trades at their disposal, it has to be Hill.
Lachie Neale ($658,500 MID) or Patrick Dangerfield ($625,500 MID)
There’s plenty tipping the scales in Neale’s favour. The 26-year-old scored 157 points in the opening round, on the back of 26 disposals and 16 contested possessions, and he’s missed just two matches since 2013, highlighting his durability, which will be key in 2020. And then there’s the four consecutive home games to restart the year, meaning Neale’s preparation will be as normal, a huge contrast to the other visiting teams in the Queensland Hub.
But – you knew it was coming – the fact Geelong will play every home game at GMHBA Stadium this season, including three of the first four – two against Gold Coast and Carlton – counts for more. Dangerfield averages 130 SuperCoach points from 32 matches at the venue since 2016. No Matt de Boer, after their Round 1 meeting in Sydney, is handy, too.
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Tyler Brown (Coll – $123,900 MID) or Justin McInerney (Syd – $123,900 MID)
Breakevens: McInerney -34, Brown -17.
The young Swan, who rated above average for SuperCoach points, disposals, uncontested possessions, marks and inside-50s in his rookie season in the NEAFL last year, will get opportunity after an impressive 81-point performance on debut.
But, despite the Round 1 difference, the 20-year-old Magpie might have him covered for scoring potential in the midfield.
Brown, who was clean and composed on his way to 15 disposals and 64 points on debut, attended the fourth-most centre bounces for his side in its opening-round clash with the Bulldogs. And with star midfielder Adam Treloar set to miss again, it could be a similar story in Round 2.
As his VFL contested-possession rate of 57 per cent last year proves, Brown is terrific at the contest. But he’s just as effective on the outside, as he showed during the Marsh Series, and it’s this all-round ability which should see him remain in the side upon Treloar’s return.
But with fellow basement-price midfielders Ned McHenry (Adel), Luke Valente (Freo), Harley Bennell (Melb) and Jack Bytel (StK) impressing on the track, leave yourself room to move.
Jack Viney (Melb – $439,300 MID) or Jeremy Howe ($431,900 DEF)
After starring performance in Round 1, Viney and Howe are genuine money-making, stepping stone options.
Even if Viney, who posted a competition-best 186 points in Round 1, scored 95 in the next two matches, he’ll be worth more than $530k by Round 3. And that will already put him in touching distance of a fallen premium, if, at that point, you don’t think Viney will become a keeper himself.
It’s a similar story for Howe, whose 156-point performance against the Bulldogs will see his price-tag head past $500k very soon.
But, out of the two, it’s Howe who is the one most likely to be a top-six player in his position.
Prior to an inconsistent 2019, the high-marking defender averaged 92 points or more for three consecutive seasons.
Viney averaged 96 in 2016 but posted figures of 90, 92 and 81 in the past three years.
With a renewed focus on his own game, after handing over the captaincy, and after “maintaining the rage” during the shutdown, Viney could average more than Howe. But the top-six line in the midfield is far higher. And surely you’ve got more problems in defence.
I’m going with both but if I had to choose it would be Howe.
QUICK FIRE
Marcus Bontempelli (WB – $623,000 MID) or Josh Dunkley (WB – $632,400 MID) out?
Unless you’re trading for cash generation purposes, I’d hold both. But if you are dumping one, it’s Bontempelli over Dunkley for me. He’s got a date with Giants tagger Matt de Boer in Round 3 and possibly Saint Jack Steele, who held the star Bulldog to just 70 points last year, on Sunday week.
Dylan Roberton (StK – $260,400 DEF) – hold or trade?
In his last full season in 2017, Roberton averaged six marks and 92 SuperCoach points per game. In Round 1, he took just one mark on his way to 26 points in 82 per cent game-time. There might be too many playmakers in the Saints’ back-half now. Going straight up to Howe could be your move, if Brandon Zerk-Thatcher holds his place. You should be dealing with your rookie-price issues first.
Darcy MacPherson (GC – $443,800 FWD-MID) – hold or trade?
“I think I’ll still be a forward and I’ll pinch hit in the mids.”
That was MacPherson last week. Cut your losses and blame only yourself.
MID-PRICE FORWADS – Christian Petracca (Melb – $441,300 FWD), Chad Wingard (Haw – $412,300 FWD-MID), Jon Ceglar (Haw – $417,000 RUCK-FWD) or Jy Simpkin (NM – $383,000 FWD-MID)?
For ruck cover and scoring potential as the Hawks’ No. 1 big man, I have Ceglar at No. 1, followed by Wingard, Petracca and Simpkin in that order.
Simpkin might sit above all of them soon enough but I’m not convinced 2020 will be his year in SuperCoach just yet.
For total points over the next 16 rounds, though, I think it’s Wingard, despite a tough opening month.
He has the ability to impact that game like few others, a key SuperCoach trait in shortened games, and the 26-year-old was dominant in Round 1 with 20 disposals, three goals and 131 points in a midfield-forward role. And it was a role he impressed in late last year, with the former Power star averaging 26 disposals and 91 points from Round 20 onwards.
But, remember, can Docker Brett Bewley ($252k FWD) score at a similar rate for far less?
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on some of the big Round 2 trade dilemmas
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