Analysing the best SuperCoach rookies and the value of high-priced bench players

The No.1 priority when selecting SuperCoach rookies is to have them playing in Round 1. The next question is who will rise in value the most. And that’s not as clear as it looks.

The moment we have been waiting for is almost upon us. Round 1 AFL teams will be announced very soon, and we will be able to finalise our SuperCoach teams for the start of the new season.

The most anticipated selection news concerns the rookie-priced players. Which rookies are named for Round 1 ultimately shapes the structure of our team. For example, if all of our forward rookies miss out, and more cheap defenders than expected are named, then we will be shifting our team around to accommodate them.

TACTICS: WHY YOUR TEAM NEEDS A ‘FLOATING DOUGHNUT’

FIXTURE ANALYSIS: DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE BYES

MATHS: HOW TO WIN SUPERCOACH ON HALF THE BUDGET

ANALYSIS: ARE MID-PRICERS WORTH THE RISK?

Every SuperCoach team needs a good amount of rookie-priced players. They free up cash allowing you to pick more premium-priced players in your starting squad and, more importantly, they can be used to generate cash to strengthen your team.

Rookie-priced players generally rise in value quickly and by the largest margin, and the aim is to trade them in when they have peaked in price.

If used to their maximum potential you can have a fully upgraded team before the end of the bye rounds.

Some rookie-priced players have already been confirmed as starters for Round 1 — good news! Port Adelaide has come to the party and announced all of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma and Willem Drew will be playing. Surely three or even all four of those players have already been in most teams in the hope they are named and now we can rest easy. Or can we?

Melbourne’s mature-age recruit Marty Hore.

Willem Drew will make his debut in Round 1.

Two of those Port players are forwards in SuperCoach and are a good case study to look at in more depth about how prices change and which rookies we should be targeting.

Port Adelaide plays its season-opener against Melbourne at the MCG on Sunday and Willem Drew and Connor Rozee each come to the game in different ways. Both will make their AFL debut, however this is Drew’s third year in the system, whereas Rozee was the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft. Let’s take a closer look at them both in terms of SuperCoach.

The No.1 consideration when deciding which rookies to select is always whether they are playing games, and both tick this box with the announcement they will play in Round 1. Your rookies need to play in order to increase their value so that you can trade them out when they have peaked in price for a premium player.

If you have two rookies who increase their value to around $300,000 each, you can trade them both out, one to another rookie-priced player (about $100k) and the other to a premium player priced at about $500,000.

Dale Thomas congratulates Sam Walsh after news he will make his debut.

For this plan to work, you ideally need your rookies to increase in value by around $150,000 to $200,000 before you trade them out, depending on their starting price (a peak price of $300,000 or greater is the ultimate goal, but with maximum increase as well).

Last season, there were 25 players who rose in value by at least $200,000, and 22 of those began the season priced lower than $220,000.

There were a further 25 players who rose by more than $150,000 (but less than $200,000), including 15 who started as rookie-priced. Of these 15 players, nine of them reached a peak price of $300,000 or greater.

Of all of these 31 rookie-priced players who rose by more than $150,000 and reached a peak price of at least $300,000, 23 of them began the season priced at less than $136,000. Only eight rookies priced over $136,000 rose by more than $150,000. This data is similar in previous years, too. Cheaper rookies also increase their value more quickly.

When selecting your rookies, it is important to consider how easily they can increase their value and this is why these two players are a good case study. Drew has a starting price of $123,900 and Rozee is starting at $189,300.

At his starting price, if Drew was to score about 65 every round, he would increase in price enough to reach around $300,000 before Port Adelaide’s Round 12 bye, which is a price rise of around $176,000.

Connor Rozee talks to Scott Thompson at Port Adelaide training. Picture: Sarah Reed

Rozee would need to score about 77 every round to increase that much by Round 12, and if he was to score just 65 each week, he would hit $300,000 by Round 12, but would have increased his value by only about $119,000.

This is only a rough guide because their price movements would be greatly influenced by any single low or high score, however this simplistic analysis shows that if they were both to score about 65 each round, they’d reach a similar price by Round 12, so in a money sense you may as well save the extra $65,400 it costs for Rozee over Drew and use it elsewhere.

This is amplified even more when looking at players priced even greater than Rozee.

Under the SuperCoach price formula, players like James Cousins, Sam Walsh, Sam Collins, Darcy Moore and Jordan Ridley need to play so much better than the cheaper rookies to increase in price by the same amount.

However, above all else, if the rookies play super well and score well, then it doesn’t matter what their starting price is because they’ll increase their value regardless. Look at Ben Jacobs last year as an example. Jacobs started the season priced at $200,100 and played the first 12 games. By then, he had risen in price up to $427,000!

Therefore, players like Rozee and Walsh can still be SuperCoach guns in 2019. They need to score better than the cheaper ones to do as well, but early signs are that they are well and truly capable of that.

Here are some of the top rookies to consider for your starting team, however as mentioned above, make sure they’re selected for Round 1 and favour cheaper rookies over the more expensive ones (unless you believe the more expensive are exceptional):

DEFENCE

Xavier Duursma (Port) $130,800 mid/def

DPP midfielder and already confirmed for Round 1.

Marty Hore (Melb) $117,300

Should play for Melbourne with the Demons’ injuries in the backline.

MIDFIELD

Sam Walsh (Carl) $207,300

The exception to the rule. He will be a gun right from the start.

Michael Gibbons (Carl) $102,400

Fits the cheap criteria very well and should get games at Carlton.

RUCK

Archie Smith (Bris) $172,300

Expensive, however probably has the best job security of the rookie-priced ruckmen.

Lloyd Meek (Frem) $123,900

A perfect loophole option. Unless you want DPP, then go for Bines.

FORWARDS

Willem Drew (Port) $123,900

A tackling machine and already confirmed for Round 1.

Chris Burgess (GC) $123,900 def/fwd

Showed great promise in the JLT Series and will hopefully get his chances at Gold Coast.

Anthony Hack is a contributor at TooSerious.net and is on Twitter @ant_hak

Originally published as Analysing the best SuperCoach rookies and the value of high-priced bench players