Mick McGuane: How Dees, Dogs, Blues, Saints and Tigers can save their seasons
Carlton has firepower to burn up front, but it’s the game plan elsewhere under first-year coach Michael Voss which could flick the switch come September, writes Mick McGuane.
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Just four rounds remain before finals and the final two spots in the top-eight don’t quite look locked in.
Carlton is likely to need one more win from a tough run home to secure its spot in September, while the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Richmond all face make-or-break matches over coming weeks.
Footy analyst Mick McGuane looks at what the teams on the brink need to do to lock in their finals spots — plus how Melbourne can turn around its fortunes after a troublesome second half of the season so far.
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CARLTON
Ladder Position: 7th
Run Home: Adelaide (AO), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG)
PLENTY GOING RIGHT
Carlton’s game has been evolving for the better over the course of the season under first-year coach Michael Voss.
Initially there were concerns about the Blues’ reliance on scores from stoppages in the first six rounds, but Voss needs to be applauded for the monumental shift that has since taken place.
The team has been able to generate a stronger turnover game since then. It’s come from consistent pressure around the ball which has allowed them to set up the ground defensively.
They have been able to capitalise on those turnovers through power forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, as well as a good mix of small forwards.
Over the past five weeks, the Blues’ defence has also significantly stiffened.
Since Round 15, Carlton is conceding just 67 points per game (ranked second) and ranks fourth for defending opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside-50.
Those are defensive numbers that bode well heading into a finals campaign.
ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT
The shift towards a stronger team defence has impacted Carlton’s scoring.
Over the past six weeks, the Blues are averaging just 81 points a game which ranks them 12th in the competition.
They are not generating as many forward half intercepts and are not scoring as freely from the forward half intercepts that they do create.
Opposition sides are clearly folding back to take away the leading lanes of Curnow and McKay, but Carlton needs to be smarter with its ball use going forward and master the balance between offence and defence going into September.
FINALS X-FACTOR
Contrary to Carlton fans’ opinion of Mitch McGovern, he is a genuine wildcard heading into the pointy end of the year.
He has had a horror run with injury but was superb in his long-awaited return from injury against Greater Western Sydney last weekend.
Jacob Weitering and Lewis Young are able to lock down the opposition’s two best forwards, allowing McGovern to be the interceptor in defence.
He has the ability to deny a lot of opposition inside-50s with his aerial ability and can penetrate the ground with his kicking when he does win it back.
McGovern is a match saver who could turn into a matchwinner if he stays fit and healthy.
MELBOURNE
Ladder Position: 2nd
Run Home: Fremantle (Optus), Collingwood (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba)
THE WORRY
The Demons hold a 2-5 record against current top-eight teams and face four more finals contenders in the run home.
The reigning premiers are in danger of missing the top-four if they can’t turn that record around.
Melbourne started the season 10-0, which had some people suggesting that they could go through the season undefeated.
Since then, Simon Goodwin’s side has won three of eight matches.
WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE?
As much as the Demons still look a strong side on paper, they face the risk of being bundled out of finals quickly if they don’t change their competitive attitude and method over the next month.
There’s clearly a hunger issue because defensive actions are a reflection of your appetite to do the work without the footy and we are not seeing enough defensive intent from Melbourne players at the moment.
Since Round 11, the Demons rank 18th in the competition for pressure applied, which is woeful.
Their manic pressure at the source when the opposition win possession of the ball has been nowhere near as aggressive or instantaneous as it was last year — when they ranked third in this statistic.
Pressure at the source helps protect your defence, which was Melbourne’s backbone last year.
Over the past three weeks, the Demons have conceded an average of 48 points against from stoppages — also ranked last in the competition.
The other thing that needs addressing is Melbourne’s forward half intercept numbers, which have dropped off a cliff.
This was a side that built pressure on opposition sides last year on the back of repeated forward half intercepts which created scoring opportunities.
Again over the past three weeks, the Demons have averaged 17.3 forward half intercepts, ranking them 15th in the competition. Ben Brown, Sam Weideman and Bailey Fritsch must do more in an attempt to keep the ball in their front half. It not just about goals scored.
LEADERS NEED TO LEAD
It’s on the leaders to turn around Melbourne’s pressure issues over the next four weeks if they want to see their side make a significant statement in finals once again.
Max Gawn is averaging 1.7 tackles a game this season, down from 2.8 a game last year. His follow up work and hunt for the opposition must return.
Clayton Oliver (5.4 to 4.6 tackles) and Christian Petracca (4.1 to 3.1 tackles) have also dropped their averages.
There are two players you can trust with their defensive mindset every week and they are Jack Viney and Alex Neale-Bullen when it comes to effective tackling.
The rest of the team needs to invest far more heavily in this unheralded part of the game.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Ladder Position: 8th
Run Home: Geelong (GMHBA), Fremantle (Marvel), GWS (Marvel), Hawthorn (UTAS)
UNDER THE RADAR
The Bulldogs have crept up on the competition and suddenly find themselves back in the top eight with seven wins from their past 10 matches.
Since Round 10, they have averaged 101.7 points per game – which makes them the league’s highest scoring side.
They are also the best clearance differential team over that period and the most efficient team at scoring a goal once inside-50.
Contested possession wins are so important when the heat is turned up in finals and that part of the Bulldogs’ game is also humming at the right time, with the side ranking fifth for contested possession differential since Round 10.
However, defensively the Dogs are still a worry.
Over the past eight weeks, they rank last for opposition scores per inside-50, conceding a score from 50.4 per cent of opposition entries.
That is not going to win you a final against a team like Geelong in September.
FOLLOW ME
If Marcus Bontempelli is not the most damaging player in the competition right now, I’m not sure who is.
The last quarter the Bulldogs skipper produced against Melbourne last week is as good as you’ll see.
He logged eight contested possessions, seven clearances, four tackles and a goal for the term.
But it was Bontempelli’s leadership and direction of teammates that also stood out, with elite finger-pointing and instruction in key moments.
He was reason the Bulldogs won that game and great captains lead their teams to victory.
Right now, Bontempelli is the captain that Max Gawn was to Melbourne last year — and look what happened there.
BACK IN BRUCE
There have been suggestions that Josh Bruce be dropped or even moved into defence after a quiet first two games back from his lengthy injury lay-off.
I’d be keeping him exactly where he is in the forward line and use him as a relief ruckman.
It’s no coincidence that Bruce’s return has allowed Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to thrive, with the 2020 No. 1 draft pick kicking eight goals in the past two weeks as he has received the third-best opposition defender instead of the second-best.
Bruce has been playing a selfless role until he gets match hardened and match fit – which will come.
ST KILDA
Ladder Position: 9th
Run Home: Hawthorn (Marvel), Geelong (GMHBA), Brisbane (Marvel), Sydney (Marvel)
CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
When it does not bring pulsating pressure, St Kilda is merely an ordinary team and easy to play against.
And they have been a side that has been far too inconsistent when it comes to their defensive actions this year.
That is the reason why the Saints find themselves outside the top-eight and fighting for survival in the finals race with four rounds to play.
They have the talent to save their season, but it will take a major mental attitude adjustment.
Against Carlton a fortnight ago, they a laid only 11 tackles in the first half.
Displays like that are not going to get you to September.
The Saints get the ‘D2’ phase of their defensive game wrong too often, swarming to one opposition ball winner while leaving others free as options on the outside.
Most of the tackling pressure is also left to too few – namely midfielders Brad Crouch and Jack Steele and small forward Dan Butler – and consequently the Saints have been opened up defensively over the past seven weeks.
Since Round 13, they rank 13th in the competition for points against and 15th for opposition scores per inside-50.
Unless significant pressure is brought against an attacking Hawthorn this week, St Kilda’s season will be done and dusted.
MORE FROM MARSHALL
With Paddy Ryder out injured, Rowan Marshall will assume a lot of the ruck duties over the coming weeks.
When the opportunities arise to play as a key forward, Brett Ratten must challenge him strongly to influence the game more than he currently is. He needs to compete in the air, apply great pressure and hit the scoreboard when he is in attack.
Marshall has booted just nine goals for the season – none of which have come in the past five weeks.
SHIFT FOR HILL
The Saints need better ball use going inside-50 and Brad Hill could be the man to move up the ground and provide that.
Hill is generally a silky player by foot, but is another player who needs to buy-in more to defensive actions – especially if he does spend more time around the ball.
He is a highly-paid player who St Kilda invested in to put themselves in the premiership window, but he is averaging 1.3 tackles a game this year and has not laid a single tackle in three of his past four matches.
RICHMOND
Ladder Position: 10th
Run Home: Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (AO), Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (MCG)
TOOTHLESS TIGERS
Especially after the past three weeks, opposition teams would be going into games against Richmond knowing they are a huge chance of tasting success even if they are two or three goals down with 10 minutes to play in the final quarter.
The Tigers are giving up far too many scores late in games, which is costing them dearly.
They have now lost seven games this season where they have held leads in the last quarter – which would be frustrating coach Damien Hardwick to no end.
Richmond has four winnable games ahead, so it is still in control of its own destiny this season.
However, there is little room for error from here.
DEFENSIVE BREAKDOWN
A once-feared Richmond defence is no longer very scary.
The Tigers rank 10th for points against this season and 12th for opposition scores per inside-50.
But that is not all on the back six or seven — it’s also about the contest work and pressure up the ground.
If Richmond is to make a late charge in the run home, it needs to have complete buy-in on team defence so its defenders do not get exposed from quick opposition entries inside-50.
If the Tigers are to topple Brisbane this weekend, they also need to get their clearance game going.
Consistent clearance wins has never been Richmond’s go-to, but they can do it and must do it this week because they cannot allow territory to the Lions and put their defence under enormous pressure.
MAGNET MOVES
Key forward Tom Lynch’s return from injury this week will allow Noah Balta to return to the backline where he is desperately needed.
You’d expect Balta to get the match-up on Eric Hipwood, with Robbie Tarrant to take Joe Daniher and Dylan Grimes to get his usual role on Charlie Cameron.
I’d also be looking to shift Liam Baker back into the backline, as creative and damaging as he has been up the ground for most of this year.
The tried and true band needs to get back together in defence if the Tigers are to turn their season’s fortunes around.
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Originally published as Mick McGuane: How Dees, Dogs, Blues, Saints and Tigers can save their seasons
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