AFL Round 19: Nathan Buckley previews Super Saturday
The Hawks haven’t beaten Port Adelaide since 2022, and it’s the curse they need to break. Plus, the Dees’ search for a winning formula continues. Nathan Buckley previews Super Saturday.
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It’s the return of the grudge match, albeit off Broadway.
And can the Swans keep their faint finals flame alive?
Nathan Buckley previews the Super Saturday of footy ahead.
HAWTHORN V PORT ADELAIDE, 1.20PM
UTAS Stadium
# The drama and emotion of last year’s semi final cliffhanger between these two teams was met and dealt with by Port Adelaide in the much-hyped Gather Round closer against Hawthorn. That’s now four wins on the trot and Hawthorn hasn’t beaten Port Adelaide since 2022. The Hawks have been ticking off new-age firsts for the last 12 months or so and will be keen to do exactly that today at their home away from home.
# Lloyd Meek has been a revelation for Hawthorn since coming across from the Dockers in a shrewd moneyball trade. He was his team’s best player against his former side and Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy, despite tiring late. You have to go back to 2017 – and Shane Mumford – to find a ruckman who last had 16 hit-outs-to-advantage and 13-tackles in an AFL match. I get the sense he’ll just keep buttering up his trademark physical manner.
# The Power filled their boots against the Eagles last week in clearances, winning that stat by 27 against their hapless opponents and then translating that to the scoreboard with a +53 point differential from that source. They are deep through the middle and will have to buffer losing Jason Horne-Francis, who was strong, despite picking up a season-ending injury.
# The Hawks have run with and shut down options in their midst and may need to use them against a rampaging Zak Butters. He was dominant in the Round 6 win and set the game up with a blistering start to the match. “Don’t get beaten by what you know” … Butters will get attention and then it’ll have to be done well as he is in as good a form as anyone in the game right now.
SYDNEY V NORTH MELBOURNE, 4.15PM
SCG
# Sydney’s recent surge has been due in part to the form of their best players and the return of injured stars … Case in point, Errol Gulden’s classy stoppage-finish late to ice the game against St.Kilda. But that doesn’t tell the whole tale. Their ability to hunt the opposition more consistently has been the biggest shift. They have out-tackled and out-pressured their opponents in the last seven weeks, winning the tackle count by 12.6 per game in that period – which is ranked No.1 in the AFL.
# North Melbourne fans looking for something to hang their hats on need look no further than Cooper Harvey. The young tyro looked at home in the forward 50, leading with great timing and meeting the ball with confidence as he went on to boot four goals in an eye-catching performance last week. It’s no surprise he shares the goal nous and self belief that fuelled his dad Brent’s stellar career.
# Could Brodie Grundy be making a late push for a third All-Australian blazer? He might be the most in-form ruckman across the past month, averaging 21.3 disposals, 14.0 contested possessions, 8.3 clearances, and 12 hit-outs-to-advantage in that time. And he faces the Roos without Tristan Xerri.
# One of the great challenges at building capacity as a developing team is to handle any location at any time without diminishing the level of your play. Winning on the road is still an issue for the Roos. North Melbourne has won just four of its last 27 interstate trips, with its last two wins coming against West Coast. No matter the Swans form line, North needs to be up and about and hard to beat this afternoon.
CARLTON V MELBOURNE, 7.35PM
MCG
# Carlton won the contested ball count by 31 last week, winning clearance by eight in the process. However, the modern game has increasingly become about transition and the Blues’ inability to consistently balance their offence and defence saw the Lions impose their football and cruise to victory. Ultimately losing Inside 50s by 16, they couldn’t handle the Lions’ dash on turnover.
# Like Carlton, Melbourne has been searching for a new winning method without losing a hold of its intrinsic strengths. There is little doubt a more expansive offence is in place and in the last three weeks they have scored from 54.7% of their entries as a result. That’s No.1 in the comp in that time. Now it’s time to tighten up defensively again.
# Tell me he is going without telling me he is going? Carlton’s use of Tom De Koning in the last two weeks after the return of Marc Pittonet to the team has been instructive. The club’s 2025 prospects are scuttled so now it’s all about preparing for the next tilt. So Carlton has every right to use, or not use, De Koning accordingly.
# Melbourne’s most consistent and best forward plays in a key forward role and stands not much taller than six feet. Jake Melksham is the type of team-first player that empties out every week for his team and his club. The last time a Demon kicked 4 or more goals in three consecutive games was David Neitz in Rounds 21-23, 2006. Melksham’s recent form will almost certainly be rewarded with an extra year. A new contract beckons as a matter of course.
WEST COAST V RICHMOND, 8.10PM
Perth Stadium
Richmond’s win last week stood out more for its calamities than its highlights but beggars can’t be choosers. Interestingly, Richmond has been involved in the lowest-scoring games this season with an average of 159.3 points. For mine, this is due to two main factors. They have more often than not played with intensity, disrupting their opposition’s attempts to score effectively but on the flip side they just haven’t been unable to hit the scoreboard often enough.
# In a horror season returning just the one win, the Eagles will see this as a chance to get some reward for effort. They were smashed through the middle last week and will need to be better there to give them some field position to work with. Their young, makeshift defence hasn’t been helped by poor pressure up the field and has conceded 15.5 marks per game in its defensive 50 – ranked last. In part, that’s a manpower issue, but it is also a room for improvement for Andrew McQualter’s side.
# It’s no surprise that Jayden Short’s return coincided with a Tigers win. His experience and ball use hit the ground running after missing the previous eight games with a calf injury. He had 25 disposals (19 kicks at 84% efficiency) and kicked his first goal since round 1, 2024.
# Harry Edwards continued his development as a key defender under fierce pressure and ‘weight of ball against’ last week. With the recent retirement of Jeremy McGovern, Edwards is being asked to stand up before his time and did so with a career-high nine intercept marks last round, matching Sam Taylor’s intercepting efforts in the opening round.
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Originally published as AFL Round 19: Nathan Buckley previews Super Saturday
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