AFL Rich 100: The Secret List Manager reveals how to build a premiership contender in today’s changing AFL landscape

Do you think your club is in the premiership window? Get the inside word on the key elements all clubs must nail to be genuine contenders.

No list manager starts the year by walking into the match committee room saying, “There you go coaches, that’s the premiership list, don’t stuff it up!”.

But all list managers do have a pretty clear understanding of what the list is capable of, what the limitations are and, all things being equal, where the team is most likely to finish.

Building a playing list that has the potential to win a premiership involves a myriad of factors and takes time.

But the starting point is always the same – a clear strategy and a genuine alignment through all areas of the club on what this strategy is.

List and recruiting, coaches, CEO and club board.

This ensures that expectations are managed and all stakeholders are on board for the journey.

The minute that one of those parties have a separate agenda to the other, things come unstuck and any possibility of success is scuttled.

Sometimes even influential supporters who are external to the club can get involved. And yes, that stuff does still happen.

There is no exact science to building a successful list and there is not one ‘right way’ but there are a number of consistent elements to all successful list builds:

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Melbourne is an example of how to nail your first round picks. Picture: Jerad Williams

1. They nail their early draft picks.

No club plans on being near the bottom of the ladder for an extended period, so when you are down the bottom, don’t f*** up your early picks. That is the most likely origin for your club’s superstars.

2. It’s a balance of draft and trade. A top club’s draftees are always complemented with free-agents and traded players.

As good as Melbourne’s early draftees have been — ie. Christian Petracca (pick 2), Clayton Oliver (pick 5), Angus Brayshaw (Pick 3), Luke Jackson (pick 3), Kysaiah Pickett (pick 11) and Christian Salem (pick 9) they were complemented perfectly by high-end players who were traded in eg. Steven May, Jake Lever, Ed Langdon.

3. They have more A-Graders than most others.

While AFL is not quite at the level of the NBA just yet regarding the impact on games from superstars, A-Grade talent is the critical element in the composition of a playing list that is capable of winning a flag.

4. Free agents are worth the money.

Free-Agents who are in form at the right time will definitely get paid a premium, because a club can get them without needing to part with anything in a trade.

It’s having your cake (keeping your early draft picks) and eating it too (securing a gun senior player).

Richmond parted with a future first-round pick (currently top 10 in a hot draft) and a second-round pick to secure Jacob Hopper last year.

Richmond paid up to get Jacob Hopper a year before free agency. Picture: Getty Images

If they had waited one year, they would’ve got him for nothing!

Of this year’s remaining crop of free agents, there are a couple who are having great years and have boosted their value.

Mason Redman and Harry Himmelberg are performing at a really high level (All Australian 40 squad) and will attract big dollars and long contracts.

Redman is a half-back but could command $700k+ while Himmelberg is a key position player who can play both ends, so will be looking at a contract of $800k+ for 5 years.

This would trigger first-round compensation, which would be a consideration for GWS.

Darcy Parish is playing well and is a genuine midfielder, so will attract a long-term deal, but not at outrageous money.

He’s got a very good coach and a more stable environment, so expect him to stay.

Ben McKay has played some good games, but has only played 62 times in nearly eight years and averages 9.5 possessions and one contested mark per game.

A long-term deal at good money feels high risk for him.

St Kilda’s Jade Gresham is one whose value has probably fallen in recent years.

There is a lack of durability and while he’s a great contest player, he is not a bona fide midfielder.

Ross Lyon playing him mainly forward hasn’t helped this.

He’s a $550-$600k max contract player.

Tom Doedee was in great form and rolled the dice as a free-agent, but has sadly done an ACL.

I’m sure Adelaide will honour the original deal they had for him, but it would be understandable if other clubs interest cooled and with it, the possibility of a big pay-day.

Ben McKay is in demand as a free agent. Picture: Getty Images

DO YOU REBUILD?

One of the great things I have observed over the past few years, driven especially by Geelong is that the really good clubs are no longer prepared to go back to the bottom of the ladder to ‘rebuild’.

Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond have all won premierships and have all continued to double down at trade time to top up their list with high end senior talent.

Free agency now means that clubs don’t need to ‘rebuild’ by spending time at the bottom of the ladder to prepare for their next tilt at a flag.

Just as the old fashioned ‘rebuild’ doesn’t guarantee you will play finals within the next 4-5 years.

Why? Imagine you’re a talented young player at a rebuilding club.

You’ve played for five seasons and haven’t played finals but your team is improving. Then you’re approached by Collingwood, who have been in the top four three years in a row, playing finals in front of 80,000+ crowds.

It’d be pretty hard to say no to that! That’s why players play, to play in big games and finals…….. not just for a salary.

Originally published as AFL Rich 100: The Secret List Manager reveals how to build a premiership contender in today’s changing AFL landscape