Labor is a dead cert at the next federal election

We are told constantly to “never say never” when it come to political prognostications but we can park that. You could pick the result of the next election from Mars, writes Dennis Atkins.

During my adult lifetime there have been eight elections which had outcomes that were as good as certain months out.

Starting with 1972, I went on to watch the 1975, 1977, 1983, 1987, 1996, 2007 and 2013 and was never in doubt about the outcome.

I should add 2001 but that election was only certain in the two to three months before polling day.

The others produced results that could be seen from Mars.

It is now as close to a certainty as you’ll get that in six months we will add 2019 to that list.

We are told constantly to “never say never” when it come to political prognostications but we can park that.

Looking at Labor’s chances against Scott Morrison’s limping and beaten administration, we should adopt a comment of Edwin Edwards, a Louisiana Democratic politician with the enviable reputation of being the most colourful legislators in that rainbow state.

Bill Shorten looks certain to lead Labor to victory at the next federal election. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas

“The only way I’m losing is if I get caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy,” Edwards said during his 1983 campaign to be re-elected as governor.

The last three months have seen three of the worst weeks for a federal government in memory.

The fateful late August week when the Coalition was consumed by a senseless and suicidal attack on the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull.

Kicked off by Queensland LNP minister Peter Dutton, this madness was a planned terrorist assault on Turnbull which almost achieved its aim.

The inability of Dutton and his Dad’s Army of amateur plotters to count and the bald-faced nature of the lies and undeliverable promises they made, led to this madcap adventure coming up short.

However, they did bring down Turnbull and the opportunistic Morrison came through the middle and captured the prize as Australia’s Prime Minister.

The cost was apparent from the moment the Liberal MPs walked out of their party room.

The bad blood was always going to harden and sap the life out of the Liberal Party.

The way Malcolm Turnbull, pictured on his last day on office with his grand daughter Alice, was brought down by his own party was bound to leave bad blood. Picture: Sean Davey.

Turnbull’s supporters would seethe and the ex-prime minister would take his passive aggressive revenge by quitting parliament and looking down imperiously from Manhattan.

The chaos and confusion of that week had many low points but the most memorable was shutting down parliament at lunchtime on the Thursday because no one knew who the prime minister would be at any given moment.

The next week-long disaster occurred in the final stretch of the campaign for the Wentworth by-election.

Supporting a Pauline Hanson Senate motion proclaiming it was okay to be white was the nadir of that week (the Coalition came its senses a day later and rescinded its backing for this offensive gambit) although Morrison’s hasty and ill-considered plan to move the Australian Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was a close second.

Voting patterns during the Wentworth by-election — won by independent Kerryn Phelps, taking the Coalition’s majority with — pointed to a growing swing against the Liberals during that last week.

Supporting the motion from Pauline Hanson proclaiming “it’s okay to be white” was a low point. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas

As bad as these two weeks were, this past week has taken the prize for the year (and for the last five years actually) so far.

There was utter despair following the Victorian state election which exposed a catastrophic collapse of the Liberal vote in the once solidly loyal and faithful eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

Deep heartland Liberals seats fell and rusted on Liberal voters switched to back the Andrews’ Labor Government, giving the ALP their tick for the first time.

The Coalition’s position in parliament deteriorated when a federal MP from those eastern suburbs — Turnbull loyalist Julia Banks — quit the party dramatically and joined the other feisty women on the cross benches.

A war erupted between the centrist moderates in the Liberal Party and the fundamentalist Right Wing.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is leading a limping and beaten administration. Picture: AAP/Lukas Coch

Losing whatever grip they held on reality, some of these right wing MPs (called the Taliban by many of their colleagues) said everything was being orchestrated by Turnbull sitting in his Point Piper mansion.

Morrison’s dwindling authority was further diminished and the Liberals internecine war became very public.

Sitting 10 points behind in the polls, the Coalition is facing a defeat of historic proportions and there is no escape hatch.

It’s no wonder so many Australians would like an election as soon as possible to put themselves and the Morrison Government out of what is a collective misery.

For the voters, the outcome of the 2019 election is as obvious as it is inevitable. Be done with it, they say.

Dennis Atkins is national affairs editor for The Courier-Mail.

Don’t miss Dennis Atkins and Malcolm Farr’s politics podcast Two Grumpy Hacks, available for free on iTunes or Soundcloud.