Analysis: There are no mates in matters of political life and death
PETER Dutton built up a bond of trust with Malcolm Turnbull very soon after Tony Abbott was rolled almost three years ago, writes DENNIS ATKINS.
Opinion
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PETER Dutton built up a bond of trust with Malcolm Turnbull very soon after Tony Abbott was rolled almost three years ago.
During the long days of January 2016, when the new Prime Minister was plotting his first Budget and the subsequent bid for re-election, Dutton was a regular visitor to Turnbull’s electorate office on the ground floor of a non-descript brick building on the corner of New South Head and Edgecliff Roads, Edgecliff, in Sydney’s inner east.
They war-gamed the year and political possibilities. Dutton gave his advice freely and frankly, delivering one emphatic warning.
“If you want to keep your grip on the prime ministership, don’t budge on asylum seekers,” said the hard line immigration minister.
Turnbull listened and took his advice. In the following months Dutton and Mathias Cormann – a pair seen on rigorous and regular walks up Canberra’s Red Hill in the early morning light – became the Prime Minister’s conservative praetorian guard.
Dutton is a realist and will give a straight answer to any question he’s happy to answer. In private his belief in Turnbull’s ability to win the coming election has waned as this year has dragged on.
The July 28 by-election result in Longman, an ex-urban electorate on Brisbane’s northeastern fringe, was like an improvised explosive device and Dutton, whose own seat of Dickson is next door, felt it.
He knew his seat was now on the endangered list. With a skinny margin of 1.6 per cent and a promised no-holds- barred campaign from Labor, the unions and GetUp!!!!!, the chances of the then Home Affairs Minister surviving were now next to none.
Dutton was watching but not moving. His loyalty remained with Turnbull but it was reaching its limit.
In the lead-up to Parliament’s return, Dutton was listening to his Queensland colleagues and conservative Liberals around the country.
The singular message was clear: the national energy guarantee was not understood or supported in the electorate and the LNP rank and file in Queensland had given up on the Prime Minister.
Dutton was telling colleagues LNP people in Queensland had wanted to hear some admission from Turnbull that Longman was a sign something was wrong and he’d move to address it.
“Instead all they got was some arrogant waffle about it being a normal by-election swing,” said one MP in close touch with Dutton.
After the party room meeting nine days ago, the apparent support for the NEG was fracturing and Turnbull’s authority was slipping away.
MPs began to sound Dutton out within 24 hours of that party room meeting and they found a willing listener.
On Thursday, Dutton spoke to Ben Fordham on 2GB and outlined, deliberately, what he’d do if he could no long serve under Turnbull.
In the increasingly paranoid Turnbull bunker, this was a sign the Home Affairs Minister was moving.
“He told us in April (in a Guardian interview) he wanted to be prime minister,” deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop told her leader.
“We knew this would be coming at some time.”
The next day Dutton’s bid was all but announced.
The Prime Minister spoke to Dutton and was told nothing was happening although he was smart enough to leave himself an out by throwing in the word “now”.
Dutton told Turnbull he would issue a clarification but that didn’t emerge until Saturday morning – and then it was a brief tweet.
Dutton was getting more phone calls than he was making and he felt his support was growing but he still hadn’t decided to press the button to launch a challenge.
Tony Abbott, with whom Dutton never broke after the September 2015 spill, was urging his colleague to move and told Young Liberals at The University of Queensland to join him in backing the Home Affairs Minister.
“I look forward to giving Peter Dutton all the support I can in the days to come,” Abbott said.
As Dutton worked the phones and listened to his colleagues, Turnbull was dismantling his national energy guarantee which was just five days old.
Ministers headed for Canberra to have dinner in the Cabinet room, expecting a briefing from Turnbull and a broader general discussion.
There was no hint of a challenge but some looked askance when Dutton showed up late.
Monday morning saw a few hours when “things went nuts and no one knew what was going on,” as one Cabinet minister said.
A disastrous Ipsos poll put the smell of mutiny in the air but it had neither direction or focus.
Dutton was mustering support but he felt, rightly, he was still short. Perhaps the time to strike might be later in the week or should they wait until September 10.
In the Prime Minister’s suite, there was a growing feeling time was not a friend.
They hatched a pre-emptive hit and after some perfunctory remarks at the Liberal Party meeting at 9am on Tuesday, Turnbull caught everyone off guard by declaring his job and that of Julie Bishop open.
Dutton nominated and picked up 35 votes with only half the work necessary to get a majority having been done.
That vote did not end the matter. In fact, it felt like the first half in a grand final.
Dutton set about reaching out for more support and the now insanely paranoid PM’s office was at once jumping at shadows and seeking to keep their Tuesday votes on board.
It was becoming harder by the hour.
Not even the adjournment of Parliament last night could calm things down.
“F--- knows what is going on,” said one former Turnbull loyalist turned Dutton voter in a text message after the Senate had shut down for the night.
As he headed for bed last night, Dutton felt things moving towards him, slowly and steadily.
If he senses he’s at or above the magical 43 votes this morning, he’ll strike.
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