Turnbull is at last reversing his run of bad luck

RECENT poll results are good news for the Prime Minister, and follow a worldwide trend after global economic improvements. Now he just needs to maintain momentum, writes Dennis Atkins.

ACROSS English speaking democracies governments are sharing a recent polling boost which appears to be, at least in part, down to a strong improvement in the global economy.

In the United States, President Donald Trump is edging his way out of negative approval territory having come from a net disapproval of 19 per cent a month ago to just one point down this week.

At the same time the generic vote for Congress between the Democrats and Republicans is narrowing, albeit slightly.

The Democrats have seen a strong double digit lead erode to low single figures with one generic poll this week giving them a one-point lead over the Republicans prompting commentators to suggest the expected anti-Trump wave in the November midterm elections could be a lot smaller than previously predicted.

President Donald Trump seems to be clawing back from net disapproval in recent polls.(Pic: Evan Vucci)

In Canada an otherwise uninspiring Justin Trudeau has seen his Liberals shake off a deficit in relation to the Conservatives. The latest polls put the Trudeau team on 37 per cent against 35.6 per cent for Andrew Sheer’s Opposition.

Across the Atlantic, the British Conservative Government of Theresa May has opened a five point, 43 to 38 per cent lead over the Labour Party — the biggest advantage since the British general election in June last year.

Here in Australia Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition have had a better set of polling numbers in the past month than they have seen since just after the 2016 election.

As with the economic performance in Great Britain, Canada and the US, Australia has been enjoying what might be some strongly growing green shoots — most recently reflected by the news this week that employment has hit a record high of 12.5 million.

A polling number that went overlooked earlier this month was an Essential survey which came out on the morning of the 2018 Budget — the reason it gained little attention.

Asked about the state of the economy 39 per cent said it was good while 24 per cent it was poor — this is the strongest confidence people have expressed about the economy since the Coalition was elected.

The recent Budget was also relatively well received. The Courier-Mail YouGov/Galaxy poll found 39 per cent of voters in this state thought the Budget was good for Queensland while 28 per cent said it was bad.

Recent poll results showed the Turnbull Goverernment’s Budget has been well received. (Pic: Dan Peled)

Another result in that poll was also good news for the Turnbull Government. Asked who had the better long term plan for Australia, 46 per cent said the Prime Minister and the Coalition against 31 per cent who said Bill Shorten and Labor.

There are some basic guide posts pointing to election outcomes beyond polling. One is who’s best placed to manage the economy and another is the state of the economy itself.

The Coalition has a clear advantage over Labor on the question of who’s best to handle the economy, and it does seem the economy has turned a corner.

Of course, if the Prime Minister has the same kind of long run of bad luck, appalling political management and fumbled missed opportunities that he’s had over the past 18 months or so between now and the election, these things might not matter as much as they would otherwise.

For most of the time since the 2016 election there has been a strong reluctance to re-elect the Turnbull Government, highlighted in poll after poll.

Turnbull has been working overtime to reverse his bad political luck and doom laden fortunes.

He’s managed to string together more than a month without a major embarrassment and while his performance doing media has not matched his best days from those first weeks as prime minister, he has lifted his game.

Some Liberals put this down to circumstance — the fact that he’s now got a story to tell about economic performance, jobs growth and planned personal and corporate tax cuts.

John Howard always used to say you had to work hard to make your luck in politics. It looks like Turnbull’s efforts might be paying off.

Dennis Atkins is The Courier-Mail’s national affairs editor.

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