No ‘Budget bounce’ but poll reveals good news in Queensland for Turnbull Government

QUEENSLANDERS have pinned their hopes of an economic recovery on Malcolm Turnbull, with an exclusive poll revealing most voters approve of Tuesday’s Budget and are unwilling to take a chance on Bill Shorten.

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QUEENSLANDERS have pinned their hopes of an economic recovery on Malcolm Turnbull, with an exclusive poll revealing most voters approve of Tuesday’s Budget and are unwilling to take a chance on Bill Shorten.

The Courier-Mail/YouGov-Galaxy poll reinforces Queensland as the Turnbull Government’s best chance of retaining office, and signals that Labor is failing to dramatically shift votes in the state.

On a two-party preferred basis there is no change from February’s poll result – a 52-48 lead to the LNP – although the primary vote for the Coalition has slipped one point with Labor gaining one.

The LNP is still behind from its election win in July 2016 when it had a primary vote of 43 per cent and 54 per cent two-party preferred, meaning it is still vulnerable to losing several marginal seats.

One Nation and The Greens are now head-to-head at 10 per cent on primary vote.

There is no so-called Budget bounce for the Government in the poll figures, but most voters believe they – and Queensland as a whole – will be better off under the measures.

Voters also approved of Treasurer Scott Morrison’s reformist tax plan.

The poll of 900 Queenslanders on May 9 and 10 signals that both sides will have a hard slog until election day and need a slick Budget sales pitch to win over voters.

Thirty-nine per cent of respondents believed they would be better off under changes in the Budget, while 32 per cent felt they would be disadvantaged.

One in four of those who expect to be better off supported Labor. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents also said the Government’s economic plan would be good for Queensland.

Asked who they thought had the best long-term plan for Australia’s future, 46 per cent said Mr Turnbull and 31 per cent supported Mr Shorten.

Two problems loom for Labor. Thirty-eight per cent of voters believe Mr Morrison is a better economic manager than Labor’s Chris Bowen, who earned 23 per cent support.

And about half of voters said they did not believe Labor would deliver a better Budget.

Mr Turnbull and key ministers will launch a Budget blitz from Monday, selling their tax, aged care, health and infrastructure plans across Australia.

The Government will prosecute the case that the Opposition Leader has a “trust issue”, while Mr Shorten will accuse Mr Turnbull of gifting big business and banks a free ride at the expense of battlers.

The major parties will hone their messages in five by-elections in the coming months. Three of the impending polls were sparked after Labor MPs fell on their swords, conceding they were dual citizens and in breach of the Constitution.

The Coalition believes it may pick up the seat of Mayo – vacated by Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie, who resigned on the same day as Labor’s Susan Lamb (Longman), Josh Wilson (Fremantle) and Justine Keay (Braddon).

Former Perth MP Tim Hammond resigned this month for family reasons.