Brisbane City Council ward shake-up ‘heartbreaking’ for LNP

New council ward boundaries recommended by the Change Commission could see the LNP booted from office after a decade holding the reins of power in Brisbane’s City Hall.

Proposed boundary realignments for Brisbane City Council wards presents some “excellent opportunities” for Labor, Professor John Mickel says.

“HEARTBREAKING’’ new council ward boundaries recommended by the Change Commission could see the LNP booted from office after a decade holding the reins of power in City Hall.

They are good news for the Greens, including maverick Councillor Jonathan Sri, who copped flak recently for using his office to help Extinction Rebellion activists.

The suggested boundary realignments, released today by the Change Commission, were prompted by high growth in the inner city wards of The Gabba and Central and dropping enrolments in Chandler, Runcorn and Macgregor.

Some of the biggest shake-ups are in Doboy, Paddington and Coorparoo while other marginal wards Enoggera and Northgate have become harder to predict.

An LNP insider said the changes were “heartbreaking”: “There’s virtually no winners on the LNP side, but plenty of ALP candidates will have wind in their sails after today”.

There are changes proposed for the vast majority of wards where some would have minor boundary shifts, while other wards lose or gain entire suburbs.

Cr Jonathan Sri’s hold over The Gabba would be strengthened under proposed boundary realignments for Brisbane City Council. Picture: AAP/Steve Pohlner

A spokesman for the Lord Mayor’s office said their only comment was that they had just received the proposed changes and were reviewing them.

Labor leader Peter Cumming said he would be scrutinising the proposed changes closely and discussing them in depth with his party’s candidates.

Greens Cr Jonathan Sri (The Gabba) said Walter Taylor, Coorparoo, Central, Paddington and his own ward had all “improved significantly” for the Greens.

QUT adjunct professor and former Labor speaker of the Queensland parliament John Mickel predicted the major parties would have complaints and that meant “it was pretty fair”.

He said the LNP had been on a historic high since Campbell Newman and any voter swing plus the proposed boundary changes would make next year’s election “interesting”.

“It’s the rule of politics: what comes up must come down,” he said.

“If there’s a voter realignment, there’s some wards there that present Labor with an excellent opportunity.”

DOBOY AND CHANDLER WARDS

Newly appointed LNP Cr Lisa Atwood would find it difficult to retain Doboy under proposed ward boundary changes. Picture: Annette Dew

Professor Mickel called Cr Ryan Murphy an “electoral Nostradamus” after he jumped from Doboy to the Lord Mayor’s old ward of Chandler. Picture: AAP/Richard Walker

Professor Mickel said the proposed changes for Doboy Ward would make it difficult for the newly appointed LNP councillor Lisa Atwood to retain it.

It would lose its conservative base at Wakerley to the already ultra-safe LNP ward of Chandler and gain some areas from Morningside and Wynnum Manly wards.

“If you’re the Labor Party and wanting to draw up a seat for Doboy, that would be the boundaries you’d pick,” he said.

“Cr Ryan Murphy, who jumped from Doboy to the current mayor’s old ward of Chandler, is an electoral Nostradamus.”

COORPAROO AND THE GABBA WARDS

Newly appointed LNP Cr Fiona Cunningham may face a harder fight in the already marginal Coorparoo Ward. Picture: AAP/Renae Droop

Professor Mickle said in Coorparoo, the LNP’s bid to give newly appointed councillor Fiona Cunningham the advantage of incumbency would be nixed by the proposed ward changes.

The ward would gain East Brisbane and part of Woolloongabba from The Gabba, which Mr Mickle said was “far more advantageous to Labor and the Greens than the LNP”.

That was echoed by Greens Cr Jonathan Sri (The Gabba): “a fair chunk of Greens heartland is moving into Coorparoo Ward, making Coorparoo extremely strong for the Greens.”

On the subject, professor Mickle said those hoping to see the back of Cr Sri would find this redistribution disappointing: “it’s strengthened his hand there”.

PADDINGTON, ENOGGERA AND NORTHGATE WARDS

LNP Cr Peter Matic faces a “three horse race” against Labor and the Greens under proposed changes to Paddington Ward. Picture: AAP/Richard Walker

Paddington Ward’s LNP Cr Peter Matic has lost the liberal strongholds of Toowong and Auchenflower to the already secure Walter Taylor Ward, and gained Herston from Central Ward and Bardon from The Gap Ward.

Professor Mickle said in its current form, Paddington was a tight contest between the LNP and the Greens but under the realignment it would be “a genuine three horse race”.

He said Enoggera, previously a Labor seat until it was won by Andrew Wines, had new areas added where he would not have the advantage of incumbency and would be “one to watch”.

The marginal Northgate Ward, held by Cr Adam Allan, also looked more like a Labor seat under the realignment but he cautioned sitting councillors “were always hard to beat”.

INCUMBENCY IS STILL KING

“It seems to be, at a rough guess, the long-term LNP councillors, not the ones they’ve eased in, look pretty comfortable in this redistribution,” Professor Mickle said.

“And of the newcomers, Cr Davis in McDowall and Cr Mackay in Walter Taylor, will be popping the champagne corks.

“The sitting Labor councillors would be quite happy but they would be happier still that they may well find themselves joined by an additional couple of Labor councillors.”

The Change Commission is seeking feedback on the proposed realignments before a deadline of 5pm, September 9, 2019