Brisbane City Council LNP majority threatened by voting changes

A perfect storm of factors could cost the LNP over a third of its seats in the Brisbane City Council chamber.

THE LNP is at risk of losing its massive majority in Brisbane City Council if Labor gets its way with changes to ward boundaries, a new report has claimed.

The Australian Institute for Progress says Labor, the Greens and an Independent could seize control of the council chamber with just a 3.52 per cent first preference swing to Labor in next March’s council election.

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A report, commissioned by the conservative think tank, says the introduction of compulsory preferential voting and Labor’s proposed changes to ward boundaries mean a 3.52 per cent uniform swing would be enough for the LNP to lose seven of its 19 seats in the 26-seat chamber.

These wards include The Gap, Holland Park, Enoggera, Coorparoo, Northgate and Doboy, as well as Paddington – which the reports says would be picked up by the Greens.

Despite this, the report claims a 7.3 per cent first-preference swing would be needed for Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner to be unseated by Labor’s candidate Rod Harding.

The boundary changes could shake up City Hall.

It also points out that the “sheer weight” of the LNP’s victory at the 2016 election makes it “extremely difficult for Labor to gain a significant advantage from simply changing boundaries”.

The report suggests the effects of compulsory preferential voting alone would reduce the margins of at least six LNP wards to under 5 per cent.

The Change Commission is reviewing the boundaries of Brisbane City Council’s wards, with the LNP and Labor among the stakeholders making submissions on the proposed changes.

The review was triggered after three wards did not meet the required quota of voters, including Central, Chandler and The Gabba, while Runcorn is also close to being out of the quota.

The institute’s report was conducted using an estimate that a 1 per cent swing away from the LNP would be shared 80 per cent with Labor and 20 per cent with the Greens.

The State Labor Government is yet to introduce its compulsory preferential voting plans for council elections, with legislation set to be debated and passed later this year.

LNP councillors have previously slammed the changes, while Labor councillors have supported them, saying the move would bring council voting in line with the state and Commonwealth.

Australian Institute for Progress executive director Graham Young said Labor’s redistribution submission showed they were “determined to tilt the field as much as possible towards themselves”.

“There is no reason for the LNP council to be complacent this election,” he said

“What appears to be a large margin is actually wafer-thin because of changes to the voting system made by the state government, and a redistribution that they also mandated.”