Biggest battleground wards in the Brisbane City Council election
As Labor sets about the “massive” task of clawing its way up from its historic low of just five out of 26 wards, six key wards are shaping up as major battlegrounds for the Brisbane City Council election at the end of this month.
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A POLITICAL pundit and ex-politician predicts there will be six hotly contested wards in the Brisbane City Council election at the end of this month.
QUT adjunct associate professor and former Labor Queensland speaker John Mickel said he doubted the LNP could win more seats and would have to fiercely defend some.
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“The prospect of the LNP winning further seats is difficult for them given that all the current Labor councillors are recontesting their wards and would be hard to dislodge,” he said.
Meanwhile, Labor had to claw its way up from its historic low of just five out of 26 wards.
“Its worth restating: Labor’s task is massive. It’s got to overcome the LNP in some wards, the Greens in others and independent wards,” he said.
He said The Greens were a real threat, particularly to Labor, but also in some LNP wards.
THE BATTLEGROUNDS
DOBOY WARD
The boundary changes in Doboy meant it is Labor candidate’s Jo Culshaw’s ward to lose, despite LNP Cr Lisa Atwood being appointed after Cr Ryan Murphy parachuted to the ultra-safe Chandler Ward. “The LNP margin’s gone down from 4.3 per cent (in Doboy) to absolutely line ball,” Ass. Prof. Mickel said.
THE GABBA WARD
He said while “controversial” Greens Cr Jonathan Sri won The Gabba Ward on a 7 per cent margin against the LNP in 2016, he beat Labor by only 1.7 per cent. The boundary changes meant that margin grew to 3 per cent but “he could lose” to Labor’s Rachel Gallagher. “The contest there is not so much LNP versus the Greens. It’s Labor versus the Greens for primary votes.”
NORTHGATE WARD
“The seat that Labor would want to win back is the seat they’ve had historically, which is Northgate,” Ass. Prof. Mickel said. “They’re running the same candidate as last time (Reg Neil). They would argue the margin is quite low.” But he said LNP Cr Adam Allan would have the advantage of “the sophomore effect” where hardworking first-term incumbents tend to increase their vote. “And he’s been appointed chairman of finances, which is a boost. That would be a keenly fought contest,” he said.
PADDINGTON WARD
“The Greens can win it as long as they finish in front of Labor,” Ass. Prof Mickel said. “Certainly the Greens hold it at the state level – that was their breakthrough seat in the last election,” he said. While the state election had compulsory preferential voting, council elections do not, which means voters can just vote one and not allocate preference. That means the progressive vote could be divided between Labor and the Greens and then it would be down to which candidate ends up with the highest primary vote.
ENOGGERA WARD
Ass. Prof. Mickel said the Enoggera Ward required a five per cent swing to knock LNP Cr Andrew Wines out of what was, historically, a Labor seat. “Andrew Wines won it in a landslide when the sitting councillor left in 2008 and he has been there for quite some time,” he said. He said while Cr Wines had “a massive swing” in his favour in 2012, he suffered a 9.4 per cent swing against him in 2016. “This time he’s got a Labor opponent who’s a high-profile victim’s rights campaigner in Jonty Bush,” he said. “Cr Wines, as a sitting councillor, would start as a favourite but it strikes me that she’s a very good candidate.”
COORPAROO WARD
Ass. Prof. Mickel said the parts of Woolloongabba and East Brisbane that moved to Coorparoo Ward might find its inner-Liberal: “You’ll have to follow my logic with this.” He said those suburbs had never had a conservative councillor but did now with the appointed Fiona Cunningham. “My hunch is that the bias in picking it up will be to the Liberal Party’s way,” he said. He said Labor candidate Matt Campbell would have to contend with The Greens candidate Sally Dillon.
WORTH WATCHING
HOLLAND PARK WARD
He said if compulsory preferential voting was legislated Cr Krista Adams would have been “in trouble” but right now Labor’s Karleigh Auguston had to get more than 40 per cent of the primary vote to be a contender. “I’m not saying it can’t be done, but you’re taking on the Deputy Mayor and all that comes with it. Her mother was a councillor and a very, very popular councillor,” he said.
THE GAP WARD
“The other one that’s a bit of a sleeper is The Gap,” Ass. Prof. Mickel said. He said it had the “newish” LNP Cr Steve Toomey, who copped the largest swing against him of any councillor at the 2016 election – 15.4 per cent. “The margin’s 4.7 per cent and normally I’d say he’d re-establish himself,” he said. “This time, the candidate is another one of the Bevis Brothers (teacher Daniel Bevis), and if there’s one thing the Bevises know how to do, it’s campaign,” he said. “They get that from their grandfather and their father: their father was the Federal Member for Brisbane (Arch Bevis).” Daniel Bevis ran in 2016.
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