Covid modelling behind our roadmap out of lockdown explained

Victoria’s roadmap out of lockdown predicts thousands of new daily cases and hospital admissions by Christmas — but there’s one thing we can all do to drive those numbers down.

Victoria faces thousands of daily Covid-19 cases and deaths by Christmas and the new year — but there’s one thing we can do to stop things escalating.

The state government released its roadmap out of lockdown on Sunday, based off Burnet Institute modelling, which considers four scenarios and how each would impact the daily case numbers, hospitalisation rates and ICU admissions and deaths.

We asked leading health experts to explain what each scenario means.

Remaining in lockdown is not a viable option for Victoria. Picture: Nicki Connolly

STAY IN LOCKDOWN

If we remain in lockdown, Covid cases in Victoria will continue to rise.

The modelling shows we will hit our peak seven-day average of 1960 (or between 1359 to 2938 cases) on October 25.

Hospital and ICU demand is expected to reach 1200-2500 and 260-550 admissions respectively, with 24 per cent of simulations resulting in hospital demand exceeding 2500 beds.

It’s estimated the total number of deaths would be 964, or between 669 and 1426.

Burnet Professor Margaret Hellard said lockdowns weren’t a viable way of moving forward — and things were expected to open up.

FOLLOW ROADMAP

Once we reach 80 per cent of the eligible population double jabbed, we’ll still see high hospital admissions.

The seven-day average of daily Covid cases will rise significantly in late October and early November, and peak at 4543 in mid-December.

The number of hospital and ICU admissions would double (compared to figures if we remained in lockdown) — with 63 per cent of modelling simulations exceeding 2500 hospital demand. Total number of deaths would reach 2202.

Professor Hellard said cases were always scheduled to increase.

“We have an outbreak happening. As you set along the roadmap, because the cases are high there is a real risk the cases will increase,” she said.

“That’s why it’s critically important that everyone does the little bits they can to stop transmission now.”

“The less cases we have over the next two to four weeks, when we hit 70 per cent and 80 per cent fully vaccinated rates, the better our ability to control it and in essence, do good work to break the model.”

Getting tested for mild symptoms is one way to reduce cases and hospital admissions. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

ROADMAP WITH MORE TESTS

If fully vaccinated Victorians were to get tested at the first sign of illness, this would drive down hospital admission rates, according to modelling.

Burnet Professor Margaret Hellard said this was hard to achieve in practice.

“We know not everyone who has symptoms gets a test,” she said.

“(In the modelling) you try and factor what level of compliance you will get for restrictions and make that as reflective of reality as possible.”

While this scenario relies on individuals taking the initiative to get tested as soon as they develop symptoms, Professor Hellard said introducing regular mandatory tests for the fully vaccinated wouldn’t help drive case or hospitalisation rates down.

Deakin University Epidemiology chair Professor Catherine Bennett said a combination of symptomatic testing and screen-based event or workplace testing may be the way forward.

“If vaccinated people get symptoms, even mild symptoms, and get tested, then that’s a better outcome than making everyone whose fully vaccinated get testing. You can’t keep getting everyone tested,” she said.

Victorians are being encouraged to do the right thing to drive down hospital admission rates. Picture: David Caird

ROADMAP WITH 15 PER CENT REDUCTION IN NON-HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION

This scenario predicts a drop in case numbers and hospital admission rates — far greater than if we remained in lockdown — as long as the majority of Victorians obey Covid restrictions.

That is, everyone gets tested when they first show symptoms and isolate until they receive their results.

This would result in a seven-day average of 1708 daily Covid cases (peaking on 26 November).

Burnet Professor Margaret Hellard said this scenario relied on a number of factors.

“The 15 per cent improvement leads to a better outcome for all of us,” she said.

“Get vaccinated as fast as possible, if you have symptoms get tested, stay at home and follow the restrictions, if you’re going to see friends do so outdoors.”

“The more we can do now means that road ahead is a better road.”

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

Professor Catherine Bennett said the modelling wasn’t set in stone and could be shaped by our behaviour in the coming weeks.

“If our vaccination rates are high and people are complying with the rules, then these are the ways you beat the model,” Professor Bennett said.

“If we all do the right thing, we can make those rules pay as much as we can.”

“Because we are still in lockdown, you get better value for effort. The more we can use lockdown to full effect, the better.”

Professor Bennett said if Victoria’s Covid reproductive rate was remaining steady at a 1.2 average and if lowered in next four weeks, then we’d beat the modelling.

Originally published as Covid modelling behind our roadmap out of lockdown explained