Tasmanian poll shock: Labor takes lead as Liberal support drops below 30 per cent

Electoral support for Tasmania’s minority Liberal government has plummeted to new lows, fresh polling has revealed, with the Labor opposition edging ahead. Why pollster is blaming the stadium.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Electoral support for Tasmania’s minority Liberal government has plummeted to new lows, fresh polling has revealed, with the Labor Party edging ahead of the primary vote for the first time in 16 years.

The EMRS Tasmanian state voting intentions survey found support for Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s government among decided voters had slipped 5 percentage points – to just 29 per cent - since November, with the Dean Winter-led Labor opposition up 1 point to 31 per cent.

Labor leader Dean Winter. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

The survey of 1000 registered Tasmanian voters conducted last week also found support for the Greens was +1 to 14 per cent, JLN down -2 to 6 per cent, and backing for independents +5 to 17 per cent.

While backing for the Liberal Party was the lowest since 2009, Mr Rockliff’s static 44 per cent support as preferred premier eclipsed that of Mr Winter, who dropped 2 points to 32 per cent.

A poll measure which tracks leaders’ favourability revealed Mr Rockliff’s rating at +6 per cent, down from +10 in February, with Mr Winter just behind on +5 per cent, down 1 per cent from three months ago.

Commenting on the dramatic drop in Liberal support, Labor spokesperson, Anita Dow, said that after 11 years Tasmanians were losing confidence in the “chaotic and incompetent” Rockliff government.

“Whether it’s the broken promises, bungling major projects like the Spirits, wrecking the state’s budget, or trying to sell off Tasmania’s state owned assets to fix it – people are fed up with the Liberals and Jeremy Rockliff’s leadership,” Ms Dow said.

But government spokesperson, Felix Ellis, said he was not surprised that a poll conducted so soon after the 3 May national election – in which the Liberal Party was left with no Tasmanian seats in the House of Representatives – returned findings “broadly in line with the federal result”.

Mr Ellis said that the government’s focus was on those matters concerning Tasmanians such as cost of living, health, and housing, and on supporting Liberal candidates at this weekend’s legislative Council elections.

“This polling has been taken directly after the federal election campaign, so we would expect a bit of confusion there between the different levels of government,” Mr Ellis said.

“But quite clearly, our government is getting a little job delivering in the areas of concern for Tasmanians.”

EMRS managing director, Mary Massina, said falling support for the Liberal Party was most apparent in the north of the state, where it was down 8 points to 30 per cent, and in the North West where it fell 10 points to 34 per cent.

Ms Massina said the government’s flagging support coincided with the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium jumping from just 2 per cent to 13 per cent as the most important issue to voters, tied with cost of living (also 13 per cent) and behind only health (21 per cent).

“It seems clear the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium has become a serious drag on the Liberal vote” said Ms Massina, who served as the chief executive of the Macquarie Point Development Corporation between 2017 and 2022.

“At the same time, the movement in votes from the Liberals to ‘independents’ suggest that Labor’s ability to capitalise on this is also being held back by their support for the stadium.”

Originally published as Tasmanian poll shock: Labor takes lead as Liberal support drops below 30 per cent