Tasmanian poll shock: Labor takes lead as Liberal support drops below 30 per cent

Electoral support for Tasmania’s minority Liberal government has plummeted to new lows, fresh polling has revealed, with the Labor opposition edging ahead. Why pollster is blaming the stadium.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Electoral support for Tasmania’s minority Liberal government has plummeted to new lows, fresh polling has revealed, with the Labor opposition edging ahead for the first time in 16 years.

The EMRS Tasmanian state voting intentions survey found backing for Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s government had slipped 5 percentage points – to just 29 per cent – since November, with the Dean Winter-led opposition up 1 point to 31 per cent support.

Labor leader Dean Winter. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

The survey of 1000 registered Tasmanian voters conducted last week also found a +1 support for the Greens was to 14 per cent, JLN down -2 to 6 per cent, and backing for independents +5 to 17 per cent.

While backing for the Liberal Party was the lowest since 2009, Mr Rockliff’s static 44 per cent support as preferred premier eclipsed that of Mr Winter, who dropped 2 points to 32 per cent.

EMRS managing director, Mary Massina, said falling support for the Liberal Party was most apparent in the north of the state, where it was down 8 points to 30 per cent, and in the North West where it fell 10 points to 34 per cent.

Ms Massina said the government’s flagging support coincided with the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium jumping from just 2 per cent to 13 per cent as the most important issue to voters, tied with cost of living (also 13 per cent) and behind only health (21 per cent).

“It seems clear the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium has become a serious drag on the Liberal vote” Ms Massina said.

“At the same time, the movement in votes from the Liberals to ‘independents’ suggest that Labor’s ability to capitalise on this is also being held back by their support for the stadium.”

Ms Massina is a former chief executive of the Macquarie Point Development Corporation (2017 and 2022), who since leaving the role has publicly questioned the suitability of an AFL stadium at the site.

A poll measure which tracks leaders’ favourability revealed Mr Rockliff’s rating at +6 per cent, down from +10 in February, with Mr Winter just behind on +5 per cent, down 1 per cent from three months ago.