New climate change report predicts longer heatwaves, less rain, and even increases in violence

Within eight years, an extra week of extreme temperatures will hit Adelaide – and much less rain, an alarming report predicts. Read it here and see how your area will be affected.

Adelaide residents will be hit by almost an extra week of extreme temperatures by 2030, while the north of South Australia will suffer even longer bursts of intense heat, according to new climate change modelling.

The state government’s Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in South Australia 2022 report also forecasts a rise in median temperature, less rainfall, more droughts and greater intense fire seasons by 2030.

The report predicts added coastal flooding, changes to growing seasons and plant growth, lower yields in agricultural regions, more deaths from heat and even increased incidents of violent behaviour.

Deputy Premier and Environment Minister Susan Close said the review was “sobering reading’’ and justified the government’s decision to declare a “climate emergency’’.

“I think the escalating shift towards drought conditions is of greatest concern,’’ said Dr Close, who is attending the COP27 climate change conference in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to spruik the state’s green credentials.

Below is a section of the climate change projection report – the entire report can be seen here

“It’s much harder to farm consistently if you’ve got more hot days and less rainfall and there is an increased risk of catastrophic events such as fires.”

The report makes predictions for 2030, 2050 and 2090 using medium and high emissions models and provides breakdowns by region across SA.

Under the medium emissions model for Adelaide, it predicts a rise in median temperature of 1.1 degrees by 2030, 1.6 degrees by 2050 and two degrees by 2090, compared with the average baseline temperature between 1986 and 2005.

It means there will be a further 5.6 days of days above 35C by 2030, rising from the 13.1 days baseline number, another 8.9 by 2050 and 10.2 by 2090.

The model predicts another 1.6 days of above 40C temperatures by 2030, but says that could be conservative.

“Over the past decade (2012-2021) there has been an average of more than five days per year over 40C in Adelaide, indicating that the rate of increase in very hot days is greater than projected,’’ it says.

The number of extreme hot days will also multiply in the north of the state.

In Clare, there will be an extra 9.6 days a year over 35C, in Coober Pedy there will be another 18.4 days, while in Port Augusta it will be 12.1.

By 2050, it says there will be a more-than 40 per cent increase in the number of days above 35C statewide.

The report states spring will be the season that warms the fastest, with temperatures rising 1.6 degrees, which could have implications for growing seasons in agricultural areas and increase populations of pest plants and animals.

Dr Close said the report highlighted the importance of the global push to ensure net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We have to both mitigate and adapt and that’s challenging for the world,’’ Dr Close said. “The upside of course, for South Australia is that we had the opportunity to capitalise economically on the world’s shift to net zero because we have a good, renewable energy profile.’’

Originally published as New climate change report predicts longer heatwaves, less rain, and even increases in violence