How SA’s electorates are expected to vote in the Voice referendum

An international polling firm has used cutting-edge data to predict the exact Yes and No votes for every electorate in Australia. See what’s forecast to unfold in SA.

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South Australia was pegged to be the make-or-break populace for the Voice to Parliament – but astonishing exit poll results show the vast majority of seats in outer suburban, regional, and rural SA are sharpening their pencils to vote no.

New analysis by UK firm focaldata, using advanced statistical techniques pioneered at the most recent Australian and British elections, reveals that just 22 out of 151 federal electorates are home to a majority of likely “yes” voters.

Just one South Australian electorate – Adelaide – showed a majority yes vote, with support at 59.9 per cent, with support lowest in the state’s regional areas.

Support remains on a knife’s edge in the inner suburban seats of Hindmarsh and Boothby, at 49.7 and 49 per cent respectively for yes.

The yes vote wanes to 47.1 per cent in Sturt – one of the most precarious Liberal-held seats in the country – and 46.5 per cent in Kingston, which encompasses most of the Marion and Onkaparinga council areas.

In the northern suburbs electorate of Makin, which includes much of Port Adelaide, Salisbury and Tea Tree Gully, support falls to 42.9 per cent.

Similarly, the outer northern electorate of Spence shows support at just 39.3 per cent, while Mayo polling suggests support at just 38.5 per cent.

In giant but sparsely populated regional seats of Grey and Barker, support plummets to 28.9 and 30.1 per cent respectively.

Senator Jacinta Price speaks to the media with Senator Kerrynne Liddle and Member for Sturt James Stevens, campaigning for the No vote at Marden shopping centre. Picture: Kelly Barnes

Senator Penny Wong hands out how to vote information at the Central Market. Picture: Emma Brasier

The poll also suggested that the “no” vote could pick up as much as 61 per cent of the vote versus 39 per cent “yes”.

The most recent Newspoll put the split at 66 to 34 per cent.

More than 2.2m Australians have cast early votes in the referendum ahead of Saturday’s official polling day.

Originally published as How SA’s electorates are expected to vote in the Voice referendum