Timeline: Inside the hours before, moment and aftermath of Alfred’s landfall
A well-known storm chaser has given insight on what to expect when Tropical Cyclone Alfred makes landfall, when it strikes, inside its eye, and the aftermath.
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A well-known storm chaser has given an insight into what people living in South East Queensland could experience in the hours leading up to and when TC Alfred is expected to make landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to make landfall in South East Queensland in coming days either as a category 2 or possibly even a 3 system – packing gale-force winds and up to 600mm of rain.
A Category 2 Tropical Cyclone typically has destructive winds between 126-164km/h with minor house damage, significant damage to signs, trees and caravans, heavy damage to some crops, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and risk of power failure possible.
A cyclone in Brisbane is something many have never experienced, with Queensland Premier David Crisafulli reminding Queenslanders that it has happened in the past and it is expected to happen this week.
“I know this is not a frequent occurrence, and there may be Queenslanders who can be forgiven for thinking this is something that doesn’t occur,” he said.
While cyclones are inherently unpredictable in nature and all you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best, Thomas Hinterdorfer of Higgins Storm Chasing has given an insight into what Queenslanders could expect if Tropical Cyclone Alfred retains a category 2 intensity in the hours leading up to landfall, when it strikes, inside the eye, and the aftermath.
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO TC ALFRED
Residents are advised to check their emergency plan and kit, clean up their yards, secure any loose items, fuel up your car, and check on your neighbours.
During this time period, residents are also advised to tune into alerts and check evacuation advice.
24 HOURS BEFORE TC ALFRED MAKES LANDFALL
While the effects of TC Alfred may be felt earlier than 24 hours out, Mr Hinterdorfer said the wind will start to pick up from Wednesday evening.
“From Wednesday night, we’re definitely seeing those winds really increase,” he said.
“The rain will start to increase too, it’ll be really squally, and it’ll start to really become more persistent.
“We’re probably looking at around 50-70km/h winds for most areas on Wednesday night, but the coastal areas may already start to push up over 100km/h especially areas that are exposed to the south.”
12 HOURS BEFORE TC ALFRED MAKES LANDFALL
At 12 hours before TC Alfred, Mr Hinterdorfer said damaging winds will increase over coastal areas and start to push into inland areas.
“Then 12 hours out, we’re going to see those winds really start to increase over coastal areas.
“Further, the damaging winds may start to push into inland areas, so areas a fair distance from the coast, back towards Toowoomba and Warwick and those sort of areas we’ll likely start to see wind gusts of 100km/h to 120km/h starting to hit coastal areas, especially those again exposed to the south and south east.
“Rain will become far more constant, it will remain very squally, and then beach and surf conditions are going to deteriorate very quickly.”
It is likely wind speeds will reach 90km/h during this period, which is the threshold for trains operated by Queensland Rail to stop running.
The 79m tall Gateway Bridge – officially the Sir Leo Hielscher Bridges – will also shut when wind speeds hit 90km/h, the state government confirmed.
Damaging 90km/h winds will also force the council-owned Story Bridge, Walter Taylor Bridge and Go Between Bridge to close, alongside pedestrian connectors at Kangaroo Point, Indooroopilly and Breakfast Creek.
SIX HOURS BEFORE TC ALFRED MAKES LANDFALL
At around six hours before TC Alfred strikes, Mr Hinterdorfer said exactly where it will make landfall will become very clear.
“Once we’re honing in on the exact area that makes landfall, we’re probably looking at winds of around 140-160km/h,” he said.
“Those higher winds will start to impact places like Moreton Island, North and South Stradbroke Island, those sort of areas are exposed because the system won’t quite be on land yet.”
Residents are advised to seek shelter from this moment.
THE MOMENT TC ALFRED MAKES LANDFALL
While the exact moment TC Alfred makes landfall isn’t yet clear, Mr Hinterdorfer said there will be a gradual lead-up to the moment.
“Wind increases will be very gradual in the lead up to landfall,” he said.
“On landfall, there will be widespread strong to damaging winds across the entirety of SEQ.
“You’re going to see those destructive winds around the centre of the system, you’ll start to see the true impacts with trees coming down, power lines coming down, some minor structural damages really close to the centre of the system.
“Power outages are a possibility, especially with downed lines – trees could fall on power lines and knock them down.
“When you’ve got those higher end winds near the centre of the system, you’re looking at minor structural damages, which could be roofs, impacted windows, any loose items are going to go flying.
“Rain will become absolutely relentless, it’s going to stay squally the entire time through the landfall.
“Beach conditions during landfall are going to be beyond treacherous.
“We’re looking at waves between six and eight metres across areas very close to the coast, and then offshore from the coast, they could be exceeding 10 metres.
“Those sort of waves will be causing significant and potentially even irreversible beach erosion.”
INSIDE THE EYE OF TC ALFRED
Mr Hinterdorfer said those that live in the area where the eye of TC Alfred passes, will briefly experience a period of eerie calmness on either side of incredibly destructive winds.
“Just coming up to the eye you get really strong winds, damaging, destructive winds,” he said.
“Then as the eye moves over you, the wind will go calmer, it may not go dead still, but it will be noticeably calmer.
“And then once that eye starts to move off, and that’s where you could start to see your more damaging winds, the ones that do cause more structural damage
“It may only be a very small eye with this system, it may only be one or two towns, a handful of suburbs, that get to experience it, but for those people, it’s going to be absolute mayhem.”
THE AFTERMATH OF TC ALFRED
After TC Alfred passes, Mr Hinterdorfer said there will be a significant accumulation of rainfall and a high risk of floods.
“In the aftermath of landfall, that is where we start to see rainfall totals start to accumulate, and obviously our flood risk will skyrocket through there widespread flash flooding, significant and potentially life threatening flash flooding,” he said.
“There may be moderate to major river and creek flooding, and that could be across numerous rivers through South East Queensland.”
SAFETY ADVICE
Alerts will be issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, relevant emergency services, and council disaster dashboards in the lead up to Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
While roads won’t be closed, unless they are flooded, if you don’t have an essential reason to be on the road in the height of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, people are advised to remain off the roads.
Your local council’s disaster dashboard will have the most up to date information including storm surge information and mapping.
Residents are also advised to have a battery-powered radio, in case power outages take place.
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