Cold, wet winter on its way with experts saying sunshine “short lived”

Sunny conditions have returned to the Sunshine State but it’s likely to be short-lived according to the weather bureau’s latest climate outlook.

Sunny conditions have returned to the sunshine state but it’s likely to be short-lived according to a new climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.

The outlook updated on Thursday revealed there was at least an 80 per cent chance of above average rain for eastern Australia with all of Queensland likely to see more winter rain than usual.

Climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins from the Bureau of Meteorology said the highest odds for increased rain were inland from the coast, with moisture from the Indian Ocean possibly drawing across to southern Queensland.

“At the moment, southern Queensland has quite a high chance of being unusually wet- so the wettest 20 per cent of past year,” Dr Watkins said.

“Unfortunately it’s quite a reasonable chance of having a fairly wet winter.”

The increased cloud coverage meant daytime temperatures would likely be colder than average for southern Queensland.

“With more cloud around, we tend to have less sunshine hours during the day and less chance to warm up,” Dr Watkins said.

“On the opposite side, that cloud will trap in a bit of heat overnight (meaning) warmer-than-normal nights but unfortunately cooler during the day.”

The chance of above median rain for June to August. Pic: The Bureau of Meteorology.

Dr Watkins said the outlook didn’t mean the temperatures would necessarily “plummet” and should still reach the low 20Cs.

He said it was fairly unusual that La Nina was persisting through Autumn but it looked like it would fade in winter.

The bureau hasn't ruled out the possibility of a third La Nina developing next spring.

“Even if we don’t have a La Nina, the temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean may still favour rainfall over Australia and certainly the very warm ocean temperatures that we have over Northern Australia at the moment will tend to focus cloud and rainfall into our longitudes,” Dr Watkins said.

“Likewise, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole adds a bit of oomph to that as well.”

The odds of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole developing over winter are fairly high with Dr Watkins advising that would typically bring even more rainfall for southeastern Australia and southern Queensland.

Across southern Australia, a positive Southern Annular Mode could counteract the wet climate drivers but Dr Watkins said it could actually drive onshore winds and moisture into southern Queensland.

Brisbane has already had more than 1.5m of rain this year, well above its average annual rainfall, and the chance of a wet winter brings concerns for flooding.

“It’s made the soil moisture for eastern Australia higher than it was at this time last year, it’s filled our river and our dams,” Dr Watkins said.

“If we do get more rainfall, there's not a lot of places for it to go.

“We need to be cautious about any further rainfall and the bureau is certainly monitoring that 24/7 and has forecasters on standby for any more events at any time.”

Models are showing rain could develop again off the coast of southern Queensland by late next week.

“Unfortunately the sunshine may be short-lived,” Dr Watkins said.