Qld election 2024: Four key takeaways from exit poll

Steven Miles’s efforts in Brisbane appear to be working but there are major problems in outer suburbs, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

Energy Minister Mick de Brenni is facing an almighty task to retain his seat. Picture: Steve Pohlner

• Guide: How to vote early
• Compared: LNP vs Labor promises

An exit poll of 1000 Queenslanders from early voting booths in 10 seats statewide has revealed a soaring primary swing and sparks major trouble for Premier Steven Miles.

State political editor Hayden Johnson has analysed the four key takeaways from the exit poll.

IT’S TIME

The dial has hardly moved since Newspoll was released in late September, suggesting Queenslanders have made up their minds and largely tuned out from the campaign.

Labor says the LNP’s unclear stance on abortion and voluntary assisted dying is resonating with some Queenslanders, but it’s probably too little and too late to shift the dial.

Where it could make a difference is in the close-fought electorates such as Cairns, Keppel and Noosa.

For Labor, it’s hard to campaign against an electorate’s desire for change.

Billions of dollars of cost of living relief and more in promises have been appreciated by voters, but they haven’t translated into votes.

MILES WORKS

Premier Steven Miles’s efforts to secure Brisbane appears to be working with strong results in McConnel and a closer contest in Greenslopes against the Greens.

There are still problems in the outer suburbs where Energy Minister Mick de Brenni and Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon face defeat.

Meaghan Scanlon.

Expect the premier to turn his attention this last week-and-a-half to saving the furniture in regional Queensland.

Rockhampton is still a contest and Cairns might also hold.

The more Queenslanders see of the premier the more they like him, but he might just run out of time.

GO LOCAL

This exit poll indicates that, unlike 2012, strong local members are in with a chance of withstanding the anti-Labor swing.

Tourism Minister Michael Healy in Cairns has long been considered the government’s best bet of surviving in the far north.

This poll indicates a close contest with the LNP’s polarising candidate Yolonde Entsch.

Grace Grace.

Mr Healy is well connected in the Cairns electorate and being a minister has boosted his portfolio.

In Brisbane, minister Grace Grace has burned through her shoes canvassing the McConnel electorate.

She’s also an outspoken advocate for progressive issues and stood alongside LGBTIQ people well before it became mainstream.

Being in touch with her electorate is reaping the rewards.

IT’S NOT OVER

This indicates Labor is on track for a defeat, but it’s not fait accompli.

The LNP must win 13 seats to form majority government – a mammoth task and one it has struggled to do in the past 40 years.

Michael Healy.

Strong showings by local members such as Mr Healy in Cairns will trouble the LNP’s path to victory.

Some Labor MPs were furious with the exit poll, arguing the response they were getting on booths was much more positive than it revealed.

HOW WE DID IT

Ten journalists were deployed to early voting booths in 10 different electorates across Queensland on Tuesday.

The seats targeted included McConnel in Brisbane, Greenslopes, Redlands, Springwood, Caloundra, Mackay, Thuringowa in Townsville, Rockhampton, Cairns, Gaven on the Gold Coast and Bundaberg.

Journalists spent several hours at each location asking 100 people to anonymously indicate how they had voted, along with questions over why they decided to vote the way they had.

The results were tallied using the Counter Tally Count app.

The exit poll produced a result strikingly similar to September’s Newspoll and picked up the trend towards the Greens in the inner city and Katter’s Australian Party in the regions.

For Labor, it will be sobering reading.