Editorial: Big questions over how election promises will be funded

The big elephant in the room of this state election campaign is how the winner will pay for its billions of dollars’ worth of promises, writes the editor.

Treasurer Cameron Dick last week. Picture: John Gass/NCA NewsWire

The big elephant in the room of this state election campaign is how the winner will pay for its billions of dollars’ worth of promises.

Labor’s answer to date has been “we’ll just stick it on the credit card”, which while a continuation of its current fiscal strategy, is a seriously expensive and unsustainable way to fund recurrent expenses.

Treasurer Cameron Dick tells us not to worry and, when challenged, points to lots of financial ratios and reassures us that Queensland is so much better off than, say, the economic basket case of Victoria – the governmental equivalent of judging your financial success by comparing it with a bankrupt.

Under Labor’s forward planning, the budget deficit is forecast to hit a breathtaking $180bn by 2027-28 – twice the revenues that are raised each year from everything, across the entire state government sector.

But Labor has been keen to point out during this campaign that the LNP’s answer – at least so far – to where the money will come from boils down to magical thinking.

Perhaps with some poetic licence, Labor pegs the LNP’s promises so far at $18bn – proof, they say, that taxes will be raised or public servants sacked.

The LNP denies that accusation, saying it will be relying on the old trick of targeting wasteful spending and reordering priorities – a sort of grand version of digging behind the couch cushions looking for the odd billion or two instead of the stray dollar coin.

Good luck with that. It almost never happens – at least not without a lot of pain and angst.

Every big project or government scheme targeted for axing always has lots of supporters who are guaranteed to kick up a fuss.

We will find out exactly what the LNP’s plans are on Thursday, when it is due to release its costings. But part of that plan will no doubt be the old hope that new administrations always have of finding hollow logs – hidden funds tucked away by the outgoing government for a rainy day, and then forgotten about.

Again, good luck with that. After nearly a decade in office, the Miles/Palaszczuk government has surely already tracked down and emptied every available hollow log on offer.

At very least, expect some heroic assumptions on Thursday about the expected amount to be saved by eliminating waste and government inefficiencies. But this is another target incoming governments generally get dead wrong.

HOW TO WATCH LIVE: COURIER-MAIL/SKY NEWS PEOPLE’S FORUM

The only real pledge Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has made so far about the state’s finances is that public debt would be lower under the LNP – a timid and modest commitment if ever there was one.

Queensland once had the reputation – back in the days when the legendary Sir Leo Hielscher was under-treasurer – of being the most financially disciplined of all the states, with a triple-A credit rating that was only lost in 2009 during the Bligh government years.

But governments have since become more relaxed about the way they spend public money, a trend turbocharged by the Covid years in which treasurers opted for fiscal stimulus over fiscal rectitude.

The pandemic has come and it is now well gone, but in its wake we now have governments in general – and the Labor government here in particular – who have abandoned any pretence at being responsible money managers. Their modus operandi is now to reach for that taxpayer credit card; to do what the Miles government has done and look to coming generations to pay off debt so the politicians can win over today’s voters with all sorts of blatant bribes – from subsidised power bills, to burgers on Thursdays and bolognese on Mondays.

The LNP’s desperate efforts to win office by not coming across as tight-fisted money managers have meant it has not put up too much of a fight, even pledging to retain some of Labor’s more obvious vote-buys.

But the truth is that Queensland is in desperate need of a treasurer who is more Scrooge than Santa, no matter which side wins the contest.

SURPRISE-ALERT TONIGHT

The first two leaders’ debates have perhaps been the highlights of the campaign so far – a chance for the state’s voters to see both would-be premiers in an environment that their advancers have not scripted.

Tonight’s People’s Forum that The Courier-Mail and Sky News have organised will be the same, but with an additional twist – that those grilling the two leaders will be a room of undecided voters ready to ask the questions they care about.

Hosted by Sky News Australia’s chief anchor Kieran Gilbert, the People’s Forums always deliver surprises – as those real voters are never ones to stick to a script.

Among their number tonight will be members of The Courier-Mail’s Voters Verdict panel, who have been vlogging their campaign takeaways over recent weeks.

The insights delivered by this group of Queenslanders who were genuinely undecided at the start of the campaign have thrown up a range of surprises – not least of which was their universal cynicism when it came to the promise from Premier Steven Miles to provide a free lunch to primary school kids.

But they have not exactly been wooed by David Crisafulli either – meaning anything could happen. Watch on our website from 6.30pm.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here