Analysis: Why the LNP must become centre-right under David Crisafulli

David Crisafulli has learned the lessons of Campbell Newman’s three-year reign and will govern with “compassion”, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

David Crisafulli at the W Hotel for the LNP State Election party room after the state election.

Steven Miles will receive a hero’s welcome when the Labor Party reconvenes after this nailbiting campaign.

Predictions of a wipe-out didn’t eventuate and it’s largely down to Mr Miles’s highly-energetic campaign.

He saved the third-term-government from a hiding predicted under Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Former Opposition Leader David Crisafulli might have to break his first promise and do a deal with the Katter’s Australian Party to form a minority government – but a strong prepoll and postals might get him to majority.

As he’ll declared tonight, a win is a win.

Mr Crisafulli should immediately move the LNP to a centre-right government.

He has learned the lessons of Campbell Newman’s three-year reign and will govern with “compassion”.

Before his feet slide under the desk Mr Crisafulli will need to deal with significant spot fires across the state.

He’s ambitiously promised landmark crime laws will be law by Christmas and Queenslanders won’t give him much time to get ambulance ramping down.

The LNP leader has stood proud of his team for their unity, but they were all rowing in the same direction with the goal of power in mind.

Now they have it, expect personal ambition and ideology – on issues such as abortion – to rear their head within the next four years.

This has been a strong campaign from Mr Miles and October 2024 should be spoken of in the same breath as Ms Palaszczuk’s 2015 win.

Expect him to stay on as opposition leader, at least for a little while.

However, in school lunches and socialist state-owned service stations, this left-leaning premier has taken Labor ideologically to the left.

It has eroded the Greens vote and has helped Labor take South Brisbane back after one term with Amy MacMahon.

For the Greens, this is a devastating result.

Mr Miles and Labor won’t reach a majority, but how the Greens respond to an LNP government and whoever becomes Labor’s leader will be critical to it rebuilding.

Its vote is receding and, in some seats, it looked like being outpolled by the Legalise Cannabis Party.

Former Member for South Brisbane Amy MacMahon. Photo: Dan Peled

The LNP’s swing wasn’t as strong as predicted, but prepolling will favour the conservatives.

Election night revealed a long-term concern for the future of the LNP – it’s failure to win over young voters.

The LNP has a problem winning urban politics against Labor in Brisbane.

Its two seats of Clayfield and Moggil will probably be squeezed harder by the progressives in 2028 – forcing the state’s new government to find victories elsewhere.

It was a meticulously-planned campaign blitz from Mr Miles and the gritty Labor machine.

He spent the first week-and-a-half protecting southeast Queensland before hitting the regions for a futile attempt at saving the furniture.

Mr Miles might have done better to forget about Townsville, Cairns, Rockhampton and Mackay and instead focus on the Wide Bay and five Palaszczuk pensioner seats.

Losing Maryborough would be a shock for Labor – as it was for the LNP in 2015.

Even as the seats were falling Labor MPs were praising their premier and his campaign.

Annastacia Palaszczuk on Sky News, discussing the election and David Crisafulli. Picture: Sky News

The scare campaign of claiming hospitals would be sold and 17,000 workers sacked by the LNP deserves no praise.

Some of the United Workers’ Union Labor MPs are on-track to be punished for this.

Rumours of a surge in Katter’s Australian Party’s vote didn’t eventuate and it appears the LNP will have an easier path to majority through the three Townsville seats – and perhaps pick up Mirani.

Mr Crisafulli’s small-target strategy was described by the LNP as a “smart target”.

Expect now a stable and mature four-year government anchored by treasurer David Janetzki’s conciliatory approach.

They’ll be forced to negotiate pay deals with unions above inflation and have 100 days to set the state’s final (hopefully) plan for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The LNP will also move quickly to change gerrymandered donations laws and compulsory optional preferential voting to give it an easier run in 2028.

It’s a fair bit to do before campaigning for the next election begins in early 2027.

As Mr Crisafulli knows well from his time in the Newman government, too much change can be devastating.