YouGov poll reveals Labor vote worst since 1893 in huge blow to Steven Miles

Exclusive Courier-Mail polling reveals Labor’s primary vote has plunged to its lowest level since 1893 - 131 years ago - when Sir Thomas McIlwraith was Queensland premier.

David Crisafulli is on track to become Queensland premier in October as Labor’s primary vote plunges to its lowest level in 131 years.

YouGov polling for The Courier-Mail reveals the LNP has extended its two-party lead over the government by one point to 57-43 per cent.

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It is a 10 per cent swing since the 2020 election and, if it is uniform across the state, would see the state government lose at least 23 seats – including seven held by ministers.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen one point to 26 per cent, which if replicated at an election would be the worst result for the progressive party since 1893 – two years after it was formed in Barcaldine – when Sir Thomas McIlwraith was premier for the third time.

The 26 per cent primary vote is below Anna Bligh’s 26.6 per cent primary vote in the 2012 election, when Labor was reduced to just seven seats.

The Labor government’s primary vote has plunged to its lowest level in 131 years under Steven Miles. Picture: Evan Morgan

Labor’s primary vote, in opposition two months after the wipe-out, hit a low of 23 per cent before recovering throughout Campbell Newman’s premiership.

The YouGov poll of 1019 Queenslanders between July 8 and 15 will come as a major blow to Steven Miles’s efforts to win back voters since becoming premier in December.

It shows the government has failed to stop a sliding vote towards the LNP despite announcing

landmark cost of living measures around the June budget.

The 57-43 two-party result in favour of the LNP is also a significant reversal of the 53-46 per cent Labor victory secured by Annastacia Palaszczuk’s at the 2020 poll.

In the four years since that election – which rewarded Ms Palaszczuk for her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic – Labor’s primary vote has plunged 14 per cent.

The LNP’s first preference vote has jumped seven per cent since 2020, but it fell one per cent since the April YouGov poll to 43 per cent.

David Crisafulli is on track to become Queensland premier in October. Picture Lachie Millard

It remains 6.6 per cent lower than Campbell Newman’s 2012 landslide.

Ongoing support for the Greens could see Labor’s losses surpass 23 seats in October.

The minor party’s primary vote has fallen one point to 14 per cent, but it remains enough to mount a challenge in at least two of Labor’s inner-city seats, McConnel and Cooper – held by senior State Development Minister Grace Grace and first-term MP Jonty Bush.

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged three per cent to 13 per cent since the April poll and is six points higher than the 2020 election.

Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff James Ashby is standing in Keppel and the conservative party already holds Mirani with Stephen Andrew.

Katter’s Australia Party remains stable at one per cent of the primary vote.

The party aims to hold its three central Queensland seats and win several more in Townsville.

Just 100 days remain until the October 26 election.