YouGov poll bombshell: Queensland’s preferred PM revealed

Queenslanders have a clear favourite to take The Lodge, with voters in the battleground state bucking the national trend when it comes to a preferred prime minister.

• Analysis: Key to success in Qld

Queenslanders are prepared to hand Peter Dutton the keys to The Lodge, with voters in the battleground state identifying the Coalition leader as their preferred Prime Minister in a blow to Anthony Albanese.

A YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail reveals Queenslanders believe Mr Dutton would be a better leader than Mr Albanese, with the views in the Sunshine State a departure from the national mood.

In a head-to-head contest Mr Dutton, a Queenslander, has a healthy eight-point margin as preferred prime minister, leading 45 points to Mr Albanese’s 37 points.

The poll of 1092 Queenslander voters was conducted between April 9 and 17.

Comparatively the latest Newspoll, published by The Australian on April 21, had Mr Albanese 13 points ahead of Mr Dutton nationally.

Popularity in Queensland alone will not be sufficient to win federal power for the Coalition, however the results are significant because they reveal a major challenge for Mr Albanese to pick up crucial ground to offset likely electoral losses in other states.

Queenslanders could hand Peter Dutton the keys to the lodge.

The results also show that the Coalition’s stranglehold on Queensland – where it has 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote – has held up under Mr Dutton’s leadership.

Mr Albanese enjoys his strongest popularity in Brisbane, where the poll put him just 1 per cent behind Mr Dutton at 41-40, with 19 per cent of voters saying “neither” leader would make a better PM.

In the southeast, but outside Brisbane, Mr Dutton leads Mr Albanese 46-38, with 16 per cent undecided.

Mr Albanese is least popular in regional areas, where Mr Dutton pulls ahead to 48-34, with 18 per cent undecided.

Mr Dutton is more popular with men, with 51 per cent of male voters identifying him as the better PM and 37 per cent choosing Mr Albanese. Women are evenly split, 38-38, with 24 per cent undecided.

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese is least popular in regional areas. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Dutton is also more popular with voters over 35, while Mr Albanese pulls ahead in voters aged 18-34.

There are currently 55 MPs on the Opposition benches, with 21 of those hailing from the LNP – meaning Queenslanders make up nearly half of the Coalition.

Fortress Queensland was a significant stronghold for the LNP at the federal election in 2022, with the party’s 54 per cent two-party preferred vote the highest for the Coalition nationally as it bled seats in Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

But the strength of Mr Dutton’s popularity in the mind of Queenslanders doesn’t bode well for Mr Albanese, whose party holds just five seats in the state after losing the former Labor stronghold of Griffith (once held by Kevin Rudd) to the Greens in 2022.

There is no Labor representation in north or central Queensland. The party is also facing a fight on its left after the “Greenslide” delivered three Greens MP and another senator to Canberra.

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton is more popular with men. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Federal Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus refused to be drawn on the poll results but conceded it was crucial for the Albanese government to gain seats in Queensland amid concerns Labor is vulnerable to losing electorates in WA.

“It’s obviously important for the Albanese government, when the next election comes, to seek to win more seats in Queensland and we are aiming to do just that,” he said.

“I’m not going to comment on polls – we are a government that is absolutely committed to doing more about reducing the cost of living, more about measures in our budget that will deal with this, (and) we’ve got tax cuts coming in on July 1 which is going to make a tremendous contribution.

“That’s the things I’m focused on.”

Labor’s election win came without having to convert Queensland, but Treasurer Jim Chalmers has in recent months declared the future of the government depends on winning more seats in the state.

“We know we need to do better in Queensland and that the future of the country and the future of the government depends on it. A Labor government with more Queensland voices will be an even better government,” Dr Chalmers told The Australian at the time.

“We are under no illusions about how hard Queensland has been and how hard it has been for us to win federal seats, especially now that we are fighting on two fronts, to our left and our right.”

And the focus on the state has been visible, with Mr Albanese making five appearances across four consecutive weeks with visits to Ipswich, Brisbane, Gladstone, Mackay and Townsville

He also picked Queensland to launch his bold manufacturing revival dubbed a “Future Made in Australia”, which includes government intervention in the move to diversify the economy rather than leaving it only to market forces.

Mr Albanese visited Townsville RSL on Anzac Day to rub shoulders with locals in the nation’s largest garrison city.