Qld politics: YouGov poll finds heavy Labor losses if election held now

The LNP would be tantalisingly close to forming government on its own if an election were held now. exclusive polling reveals.

• Red-carpet premier loses advantage
• Less popular than Bligh, Newman
• Labor support hits six-year low

Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor Party would have had no clear path to victory if an election had been held last weekend, exclusive new polling can reveal.

If the swing against the party identified in the YouGov polling for The Courier-Mail was uniform across the state, the LNP would take at least nine – and as many as 15 – seats from Labor.

The latest YouGov polling conducted from 1000 Queenslanders last week predicted Labor’s primary vote would fall from the 39.6 per cent it held at the 2020 election, to 34 per cent.

And the poll predicted the LNP’s primary vote to lift from 35.9 per cent to 38, with the Greens at 13 per cent and One Nation and on 11 per cent.

Such a result would put the LNP tantalisingly close to a majority on its own.

Labor meanwhile would be back in the wilderness, with at least two of its inner suburban seats also set to go to the Greens – which would leave the party with as few as 35 seats in the 93-seat Parliament.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk yesterday. Picture: Tertius Pickard/NCA NewsWire

Overlaying the 5.6 per cent swing against Labor since the 2020 election on the final results of that contest in each seat delivers the LNP a clear win in Barron River, Bundaberg, Nicklin, Redlands – and the two Covid-sensitive seats of Caloundra and Hervey Bay won by the ALP at the last contest.

Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams said while the majority of Brisbane seats would be retained for Labor, the regional seats could pose trouble.

All three battleground Townsville seats would go to the LNP, now led by the city’s former deputy mayor David Crisafulli – and Dr Williams said without that trio of seats, forming government would prove difficult.

“A nine-seat loss would put Labor in a very uncomfortable position,” he said.

“The Palaszczuk Government has weathered the integrity storm better than what I would have predicted, but the stuff that is really biting them is the ‘red carpet premier’ – if there is anything that will undo Palaszczuk, that’s what it will be.

“The figures that will be really concerning Labor will be the two-party-preferred figure (which sits at 50:50) and the Premier’s personal satisfaction falling into the negative.

“There is still a sense in regional Queensland of, ‘bloody Brisbane, they get everything down there’.

“What they look for is strong leadership, and they like someone who is relatable.”

Six seats would go down to the wire, with less than one percentage point separating the candidates: Aspley, Cairns, Cook, Keppel, Pumicestone and Redcliffe.

A swing towards the Greens is also deeply concerning for Labor strategists, with seats like Cooper (formerly Ashgrove) and Education Minister Grace Grace’s McConnel (formerly Brisbane Central) in serious trouble.

“That (the Greens factor) is crucial,” Dr Williams said.

“They will be looking strongly at McConnel and potentially Cooper as well – no one should be surprised if one or even both of those were to end up Green.

“A lot of people are sick of the major parties, and what the success at the federal election did was gave a lot of people who traditionally voted Labor or LNP permission to vote Green – they’re no longer seen as a fringe party.”

But Dr Williams said with Mr Crisafulli still seen as an unknown to portions of the electorate, Ms Palaszczuk could turn it around and snatch victory.

“Labor won’t be completely panicking – if (the poll figures) were in June 2024, they would be,” he said.

“But two years is still enough time to change leaders if they were going to – but next year would be the year to do it.

“When the collapse begins, the fall can happen fast.”