Can’t rule out a surprise: Fadden LNP preselection to be a nailbiter

There are two frontrunners in the nailbiting preselection for the LNP in a Gold Coast by-election, but another breakout candidate can’t be dismissed.

The Fadden LNP preselection will come down to a nailbiter on Saturday afternoon, with two candidates considered the favourites but insiders not ruling out a dark horse breaking out to claim the coveted spot.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of controversial former frontbencher Stuart Robert.

Whichever of the five candidates that wins will be in one of the safer LNP seats in the country, having been held by the party or the Liberal Party since 1984, and Labor has only held it for one year since 1977.

The Albanese government’s increased tax on superannuation accounts of $3 million or more is expected to be a focus of the LNPs campaign at the July 15 by-election, in a seat with a high population of retirees and aspirational working class.

Cameron Caldwell

While Labor discussed not running a candidate, with the seat considered unwinnable, party officials decided to contest Fadden to “fly the flag” and use it as an opportunity to build its presence in southeast Queensland.

Three-times elected Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is generally considered to be the narrow favourite, closely followed by doctor and former Queensland Australian of the Year Dinesh Palipana.

LNP Fadden branch chair Fran Ward is also considered a strong contender, while branch treasurer Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart are also in the running.

There is no candidate running from the party’s increasingly active religious right.

One party insider said that while preselectors may be leaning towards a particular candidate, many would leave their final decision until the day.

Each candidate will get to speak for eight minutes, as they make their case to the Fadden preselectors at the Runaway Bay Community Centre on Saturday afternoon, before facing seven minutes of questioning each.

Dr Dinesh Palipana

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has refrained from backing a candidate or urging LNP members preselect a woman, after the two previous Liberal leaders faced significant backlash from branch members when doing so.

“Branch members don’t like being told what to do. Peter understands that,” one member said.

Labor sources are talking down the possibility of even a swing in its direction, pointing out it was a vastly different competition than the recent Aston by-election, which was the first time a government had won a federal by-election in about 100 years.

Nominations for the seat close at midday on June 22, but Labor is expected to finalise its candidate in the coming days.

Its candidate for the 2022 election, Letitia Del Fabbro, is considered the favourite but other potential people are understood to have expressed interest.