Qld Labor ‘underestimated’ federal poll threat from Greens’
“Rising star” Terri Butler was a high-profile casualty in a miscalculation by Queensland Labor in its federal election campaign as the Greens surged in popularity, a review has found.
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Labor needs a Queensland-specific campaign strategy and plans for the regions if it is to come back from its record-low results in the state, after the party’s federal election review savaged its performance and found it underestimated the Greens until it was “too late”.
Queenslanders were “not aware of the alternative Labor was presenting” and the party failed to consider regional differences in its campaign, the review conducted by ALP heavyweights Greg Combet, Lenda Oshalem, Craig Emerson and Linda White found.
It handed down 27 recommendations, including that “both major parties should avoid unnecessarily divisive and aggressive rhetoric towards China”.
It also found that former prime minister Scott Morrison’s unpopularity was “the single most significant factor in Labor’s victory”.
But the review was damning of how the party campaigned in Queensland, particularly against the Greens in Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.
It revealed the threat from the minor party had been “off the radar” and that voters turned to them despite believing the Greens “would be ineffective amateurs if they held any real power”.
The miscalculation cost Labor dearly, as it lost “rising star” Terri Butler in Griffith to the Greens, which also won Ryan and Brisbane from the LNP.
Climate change will continue to be a driving force in Labor’s campaigns going forward, after the review recommended finding a way to bring inner-city, outer-suburban and regional voters together on the issue by demonstrating that emissions reduction and economic opportunities are not mutually exclusive.
Climate change was also a “major vote driver” in inner-city Brisbane after the 2022 floods, which led a rise in “protest votes” to the Greens.
“The reality is that Queensland Labor underestimated the threat from the Greens in these seats … the Greens were largely off the radar for Labor and the threat was identified too late in the campaign,” the report stated.
“Voters were expecting Labor to win and felt comfortable to lodge a protest vote.
“Interviewees also identified that this result could have been different for the Greens if the teals decided to run in these seats.”
It found that the Greens out-campaigned Labor in Griffith, putting in work over a longer period, while wedging Ms Butler into defending state issues she was not responsible for.
“Terri Butler had a program of constant campaigning and community engagement, but the Greens were more visible in the electorate and campaigned more intensively,” it stated.
The review found Labor’s campaign in Queensland failed to take into account differences between the inner city, South East Queensland and key regional centres, while the Greens targeted specific local issues like the Brisbane airport noise.
“This contributed to the perception of the Greens running active grassroots community campaigns and being more visible and engaging in inner-city communities,” it found.
Labor’s primary vote in Queensland barely moved, with a 0.7 per cent swing towards it, but it still lost one seat and failed to gain any despite a strong swing in its favour in Flynn.
It left the ALP with just five out of the 30 electorates in Queensland.
The review seemingly dismissed a “suggestion” put to it that Covid impacted its ability to effectively campaign in the state.
It was not entirely damning, saying the importance of the victory “cannot be overstated”, while ALP national president Wayne Swan said it was a historic result.
“Labor has only won government from opposition five times in the last century,” Mr Swan said.
“While the path back to government is extremely difficult for the Coalition there is no room for our Party to be complacent.”
It noted that despite winning the election, Labor received its lowest primary vote since 1934.
But, the Liberal party received its lowest primary vote in its history, as well as their lowest proportion of seats in the House of Representatives.
Labor’s attacks on Mr Morrison were “most effective in his own voice”, it found.
The report put Mr Morrison’s unpopularity down to “failure to accept responsibility and demonstrate leadership when confronted with natural disasters”, failures around the vaccine rollout and availability of rapid antigen tests, attacks on state premiers during the pandemic, a failure to empathise with women and a “lack of a credible climate policy”.
The review findings:
DESPITE a small swing to the party, Labor did not effectively establish a Queensland-specific message
MANY voters in Queensland were not aware of the alternative Labor was presenting, and that the mood for change was present only at low levels and principally in South East Queensland.
LABOR did not effectively take account of Queensland’s distinct population centres and the different approach and messages needed to cut through.
THE Greens were “particularly adept” at using local and state issues in the inner-city seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, including aircraft noise from Brisbane Airport and urban infill.
LABOR underestimated the threat from the Greens in seats the minor party won, and in hindsight, “Griffith should have been considered more marginal than it was”.
QUEENSLAND now has one federal Labor representative for every 660,000 people, which is a challenge from a campaigning perspective in the large and dispersed state.
QUEENSLAND Labor needs to undertake “long overdue” work to better understand and mitigate the Greens threat in Brisbane.
LABOR needs a “clearer understanding and internal alignment” regarding target seats in Queensland ahead of the next federal election.
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