Monsoon conditions could cause cyclones for Queensland

Monsoon conditions that usually occur about late December and could cause cyclones to hit Queensland could start in a matter of weeks as multiple climate drivers combine.

Monsoonal conditions could cause cyclones to hit Queensland as multiple developing climate factors hint at a perfect storm.

According to weather experts it’s “just a matter of time” until monsoon conditions start developing over the Sunshine State.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s atmospheric scientist Brooke Pagel said, while it is too early to predict exactly when the monsoon trough will form, it would likely be over the coming weeks as an eastwards moving “pulse” of cloud and rainfall heads towards Australia.

“If a monsoon trough does become active there would be an increased risk of tropical low or tropical cyclone development over waters adjacent to the mainland,” Ms Pagel said.

Ms Pagel said although Queensland has largely been spared dangerous wet conditions so far, La Nina is still active alongside other climate drivers heading to the coast.

“We’re in a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IDO) phase as well, along with something that‘s called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that’s strengthening so we do expect a lot more tropical cloudiness, there’ll be a lot more rainfall out of that as well,” she said.

Afternoon storm clouds roll in over Brisbane City in August 2022 Picture: David Clark.

“So these are three climate drivers, quite different from each other … that does increase the indications of wetter weather for eastern Australia.”

While the IOD does appear to be dissipating, Northern Australia will remain under threat of La Nina and the MJO producing above average rainfall after a wet winter that saturated catchments.

“With their powers combined… there’s increased risk of flooding in Queensland so it‘s something we are keeping an eye on basically across Northern Australia, Eastern Queensland and Northern Queensland as well,” she said.

Queenslanders saw a drier than expected start to November after a third La Nina was declared and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk warned of cyclones starting this month.

Ms Pagel said we will have to wait and see when the monsoon conditions will eventuate but they are coming.

“It‘s just a matter of time until that kind of environment comes together to form that.”