‘Fast moving’ trough means southeast at low risk of February flood repeat

The weather bureau has hosed down fears that southeast Queensland could see a repeat of the 2022 floods, advising that the current weather system looks very different. Here’s why.

The weather bureau has hosed down fears that southeast Queensland could see a repeat of the 2022 floods, advising that the current weather system looks very different.

Brooke Pagel from the Bureau of Meteorology said the risk of major flooding along the lower Brisbane River was significantly less than it was in late February because the fast moving system was expected to ease by Saturday.

Ms Pagel said residents around inner Brisbane were unlikely to be significantly impacted by flooding.

“The rain and the catchments that are really in focus at the moment, where the strong signal is, is actually out at Lockyer Valley around Gatton and Laidley Creek,” Ms Pagel said.

“But for Brisbane itself and even outer Brisbane, regions like The Gap and Moggill, it doesn‘t look like there will be any major flooding for those catchments.”

About 80mm of rain had fallen for Brisbane in May by Thursday morning, with up to 50mm forecast today, 60mm on Friday and 15mm on Saturday.

The totals are significantly less than what Brisbane received during its major flooding event, which totalled 887mm by the end of February.

She said it was possible higher totals could fall than what has been forecast, depending on the location of a trough currently sitting offshore, but the southeast was unlikely to see a repeat of February.

Logan River flooded at Waterford near the Waterford BP in February. Pics Adam Head

“They were different systems that were impacting Queensland for the past few months,” Ms Pagels said.

“One was an embedded tropical low, another was a stagnant trough that hovered over the area for days which caused all that river flooding and the Maryborough one was stagnant and it bucketed down for days over one area.

“With this one, all the rain we received on Thursday is what Mackay and Cairns received on Wednesday which indicates it is quite fast moving.

“By Saturday it‘s only suggesting 15mm which indicates this will move offshore quite quickly.”

A flood watch for the Fitzroy catchment and the Central and Southern interior was issued on Thursday afternoon.

A minor flood warning is current for the lower Brisbane River, reaching Moggill and St Lucia, among several flood warnings around the state, and flash flooding is also occurring in many locations.