2024 Brisbane council election: New polling reveals likely mayor

The LNP has launched an attack on Labor’s budget proposal, as new polling reveals who’s tipped to become Brisbane’s Lord Mayor.

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Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has been tipped to keep his job, new polling reveals, as the LNP launched an attack on Labor’s budget proposal on the eve of the council election.

The new polling by DemosAU puts Mr Schrinner’s primary vote at 46.7 per cent, down just 1 per cent from the 2020 result, followed by Labor’s Tracey Price on 25.8 per cent, down 5.1 per cent and the Greens’ Jonathan Sriranganathan on 21.6 per cent, up 6.2 per cent.

On a two-candidate preferred basis, Mr Schrinner holds a commanding lead over Ms Price at 57.7 per cent to 42.3 per cent, indicating a slight improvement for the LNP from the previous election.

The poll also delves into demographic preferences, revealing that the Greens enjoy strong support among younger voters under 35, while the LNP leads among older demographics and homeowners.

The Greens’ surge is particularly pronounced in inner-city and western suburbs, posing a significant challenge to several LNP-held wards.

Paddington emerges as the Greens’ strongest chance for a win, with other wards such as Walter Taylor and Coorparoo also at risk.

Bin collection, transport plans and road funding have become the major issues ahead of Saturday’s Brisbane City Council election, as political parties entered their final stage of budgetary battles.

Adrian Schrinner’s LNP have slammed Labor’s costing announcement, alleging a staggering $1 billion shortfall, however Labor insists its promised $1bn transport spend already exists in the current budget and would simply be redistributed to other projects.

LNP scrutiny also centred on Labor’s failure to provide concrete costs for its cornerstone green bin collection service, with Labor committing just $25m to start the project on top of council’s existing $45m budget allocation, the party promising to crunch numbers post-election.

Labor will need to find an extra $510 million in its next budget if elected to power, confirming it would scrap all future funding of the Brisbane Metro Project, the Victoria Park project and the Green Bridge project while also reviewing all 1200 council contracts as one of its first cost-cutting measures.

Greens candidate Jonathan Sriranganathan, Labor candidate Tracey Price, and incumbent LNP Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner. Picture: John Gass

Labor mayoral candidate Tracey Price on Thursday said the party was ditching expensive inner-city projects to divert funding to suburbs, vowing to not raise rates above the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

“We are not going to raise rates further than the CPI and I have been the only Lord Mayoral Candidate that has actually put on record that I will keep any increases to the CPI,” she said.

Asked whether Labor had a hole in its budget proposal with the missing green bin funding, former Labor opposition leader Jared Cassidy said he “didn’t believe so”.

“There’s funding for green waste recycling which FOGO will replace as well, so there’s an existing funding stream within the council budget. Added on top of that is funding that’s available today from the state government,” he said.

Labor said it would also cancel the $1m funding allocation towards emergency housing at the empty Pinkenba facility if their state and federal counterparts couldn’t reach an agreement to repurpose the site within the next six months.’

LNP campaign spokeswoman Fiona Cunningham said Labor’s so-called costings were a hot mess.

“The biggest hole Tracey Price and Labor need to fill today is the $1.5 billion black hole their big-spending promises will blow in the Council budget,” Ms Cunningham said.

“It’s now clear that the only way Tracey Price and Labor can pay for their reckless promises will be to drive up the rates and rents of every single Brisbane resident.”

Meanwhile, the Greens find themselves under the microscope for their ambitious housing policies.

The LNP has repeatedly questioned their authority to impose higher charges on developers as well as their bid to acquire the Eagle Farm Racecourse for a mere $40 million.

While the Greens have been transparent in their cost saving measures like slashing road widening projects to pay for its election promises, the party chose not to have their costings audited independently.

The Greens would need to scrape a further $200m to pay for its proposed spend, which mainly revolves around increasing public transport and projects aimed at reducing cars on Brisbane roads.

Mr Sriranganathan is expected to make a last-ditch pitch to voters on Friday, announcing a goal to drop rent prices by 20 per cent within two years if elected.

The Greens say the 20 per cent “rent cut” could be achieved via their various proposed housing policies including a short-stay accommodation crackdown, a vacancy levy on investment properties and by charging significantly higher rates on any property investor who raises the rent above January 2023 levels.