Federal election 2022 won’t be impacted by growth from southern migration

Anyone driving through the region would notice more cars, more people walking along the street and busier shops. But will the great southern migration impact polling booths and swing seats?

There’s no denying that cities across the Wide Bay have become busier in the wake of the southern migration - the great exodus from capital cities and the southern states into south east Queensland.

Not only are renters feeling the squeeze, but shoppers are finding themselves waiting a little longer in line and spending more time finding a car park.

But will all of these new Queenslanders be enough to influence federal election results later this month?

The answer sits within qualitative analysis of the types of people who have relocated here.

In terms of population, numbers are climbing, but the types of people leaving the big smoke for smaller cities are generally the types of people who already live in the regions.

Associate Professor of regional economies Delwar Akbar is based at CQUniversity's Rockhampton campus, and said he did not expect a massive shift in the region’s safe seats.

He did not even expect too much of a dent to be made by the much-talked-about smaller parties.

While the Professor did not have exact data on the changes to the demographic structure in the Wide Bay over the past two years, he said the kind of people making their way into the region were fairly typical of the populations already present.

“The first group is our senior citizens and most of them follow the sea change lifestyle,” he said.

“That’s common for regional Queensland, but Covid has increased the pace of migration of this group.”

Prof Akbar said the second lot of people were fly-in, fly-out workers, who had chosen to stay in town and work and live with their partners and children due to Covid affecting flights and complications around border restrictions.

“I am not a political scientist, but I believe both groups have the supporters of two major political parties,” he said.

“However, there are some undecided voters who usually make the decision during the voting season based on the past and present commitments of the leaders and the parties as well as their policies.”

Prof Akbar said there would likely be very little shift in the political landscape from the new migration pattern.

At most, there could be a slight shift.

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, Bundaberg‘s latest population update put it at 96,364 people, while the Fraser Coast comprising Hervey Bay and Maryborough sat at 108,183 in 2020.

Gympie‘s population in 2020 was 52,840.

New data is set to be released in coming weeks with more timely information.

But even if a sudden influx of alternative voters were to hit the regions, would they be enough to impact an election result?

If one were to take into account the overall regional population increase of 0.9 per cent and apply it to a city such as Bundaberg, the bump in population would be no more than 1000 new people.

In 2018, it would have taken about 25 times that to make up the gap between votes for major parties in the seat of Hinkler.

But that’s only using a statistic from the 2020-21 financial year, and assuming the southern migration has spread evenly across Australia’s regional cities and towns.

The most up-to-date and detailed data per region is still weeks away from being released, and by then, an answer will be made clear as the 2022 federal election will most likely be declared.