Opinion: Campbell Newman’s backbench pondered punting him when his popularity plummeted

REVEALED: In the early months of 2014, many LNP backbenchers had decided it was time to topple the Queensland Premier...

Election

WHAT began as little more than disgruntled murmurs soon became desperate calls for change.

In the early months of 2014, many on the LNP’s massive backbench had come to the conclusion it was time to punt the Queensland Premier.

Secret polling was commissioned, which some say Campbell Newman and a few others never saw.

Obtained by The Courier-Mail, the results show Newman was in a popularity death spiral.

By May 2014, two years into his premiership, Newman had a net favourability of minus 28 per cent.

This was well below his contemporaries, including Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk who came in at minus 13 per cent and Treasurer Tim Nicholls on minus 16 per cent.

Things got worse before they got better.

Operation Boring, instigated after the LNP’s annihilation at the Stafford by-election, wasn’t a plan to restore the Government’s popularity. It was the Government’s strategy to save itself after a series of problems had further eroded Newman’s appeal.

Pensioners were slugged in the State Budget before a backflip.

Corruption fighter Tony Fitzgerald lambasted
the Government on accountability.

Departed LNP MP Chris Davis was paraded as a victim of the LNP’s excesses.

And Newman lit a fuse among the legal fraternity by appointing Tim Carmody as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Two months later, the Premier had fallen to minus 34 per cent, the Government generally was on minus 24 per cent while Palaszczuk rose to minus 5.

Newman’s popularity problem was worse in north Queensland where almost every LNP MP with a seat north of the Tropic of Capricorn already looked lost.

However, the coup, which had been whispered about in the quieter corridors of Parliament House, had already been aborted.

Three central issues could not be overcome, according to insiders, although many now wish they tried harder.

For a start, deciding on the candidate who could get the numbers to take over from Newman proved impossible.

The LNP party room struggled enough last weekend to pick an alternative leader. And that was after Ashgrove residents made the decision on Newman for them.

Would it be Nicholls, Brisbane-based and urbane but closely aligned to the plot to bring Newman into state politics to begin with?

Was it again time to turn to Lawrence Springborg, who had resurrected himself in the health portfolio but already lost three elections?

Or should it be someone else entirely, such as Tim Mander, Scott Emerson or John-Paul Langbroek?

The next problem was the curse of a massive backbench. A coup needed the support of at least 37 LNP MPs, which was no easy task to achieve on the quiet.

And many owed their political careers to Newman’s remarkable 2012 result and were convinced a comeback was inevitable against a lowly Labor Party led by Palaszczuk.

According to some party room sources, the numbers were probably there if a candidate could have been decided. But few were willing to commit to the risk.

And lastly, even among those with concerns that Newman was leading them into the abyss, there was scepticism about whether change would just replace an existing problem with
entirely new ones.

The curse of past Labor leadership coups, particularly Kevin Rudd’s removal, has made navigating the public when ditching an elected leader difficult.

Newman survived and led the LNP to a devastating election loss at which more than 30 MPs lost their livelihoods.

Now those left look like they will spend the next three years staring at Labor MPs in Parliament seats they briefly held, wondering whether their loyalty was worthwhile.

Steven Wardill is The Courier-Mail’s state political editor

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