Opinion: Why Palaszczuk should be nervous if Labor wins in NSW
You’d think a Labor victory at this weekend’s NSW election would be good news for the Queensland Premier, but it’s not that simple, writes Paul Williams.
Opinion
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Queenslanders could be forgiven for not knowing that almost a third of Australia will vote tomorrow in what could be the most critical Australian state election in years.
New South Wales goes to the polls, with the Liberal-National Coalition looking for a rare fourth term.
It faces a herculean task.
Premier Dominic Perrottet has never matched his predecessor Gladys Berejiklian’s popularity, and the state (like the rest of Australia) is being eviscerated by cost of living and housing crises.
NSW has been through four premiers since coming to government in 2011, with two of those leaving office under a cloud.
Opinion polls have long seen Labor competitive against an increasingly tired and accident-prone Coalition, with a Freshwater poll on Wednesday pegging the major parties at 37 points each.
With the Greens on 10 per cent and others on 16, Labor is expected to snare 53 per cent after preferences.
That’s a 5 per cent swing from 2019 that should net Labor six seats – but still four short of a majority.
The consensus is that Labor is likely to form government, even if only a minority one on the support of the Greens.
But why should the rest of Australian care about a NSW election?
First, this is just the second test (after Victoria) for the Coalition since former prime minister Scott Morrison’s trouncing almost a year ago.
But given Victoria’s left-leaning electorate is hardly an accurate snapshot of the national mood, NSW – the jewel in the Liberals’ crown, and home to Morrison, and to the Teals who undercut him – will give us a clearer picture of how the Liberal brand is faring.
The fact federal Liberal leader Peter Dutton has not been seen in this campaign (while Albanese has) already gives us an indication.
At a time of severe household economic stress, this election also offers a few lessons as to what Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk can expect 19 months from now.
If there is a change of government in NSW, Palaszczuk can take an ounce of comfort from the fact a huge slice of middle Australia has turned centre-Left.
But she will also take a pound of fear, given those same voters tossed out a long-term government at a moment of economic challenge.
The role of leaders, therefore, becomes critical when neither major party – as in both NSW and Queensland – is particularly well regarded.
NSW Labor’s Chris Minns is the fifth opposition leader in 12 years, and clearly the best after a series of duds.
If Minns does become premier, Queensland LNP leader David Crisafulli – again, the best of the three leaders we’ve seen since 2015 – will surely be quietly pleased.
Voters may well be in a mood for change.
Palaszczuk, in turn, will worry that if Perrottet – never really popular, but a leader who always bested Minns in approval ratings – can be so easily dispatched, then she (governing for far longer) could also be shown the door.
This is especially true given Queensland Labor (with 13 seats on margins under six percentage points) sits closer to the electoral precipice than the NSW Coalition (and its seven marginal seats).
If Minns wins, Palaszczuk’s fears will be further compounded given this campaign’s focus on Perrottet’s personal character.
While Palaszczuk has not been accused of dressing shamefully in her youth or giving preferential treatment to her partner – issues haunting Perrottet – Queenslanders have nonetheless cooled their affections for their premier.
A mid-2022 YouGov poll, for example, found just 12 per cent of Queenslanders were more favourable toward Palaszczuk than in 2020, and 34 per cent less favourable – a net decline of 22 points.
Even 20 per cent of Labor voters were less impressed with the Premier.
After months of integrity scandals and (arguably innocuous) “red carpet” appearances, half of all voters believe Palaszczuk “enjoys the high life”.
Finally, the themes of this campaign also offer clues as to what we can expect here in 2024. In NSW, the Coalition has gone for the hip-pocket nerve: Perrottet has offered every child under 10 a $400 deposit into a superannuation-like future fund.
By contrast, Labor remains ideological in promising to change the state’s constitution to protect public-owned assets such as water distribution.
If Perrottet wins, expect similar cash splashes here.
If Minns is victorious, ours will be an infrastructure election with the goodies kept in public hands.
And if the Greens hold the balance of power in NSW, there’s a better than even chance the Queensland Greens will do the same in 2024.
Watch this space.
Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University
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