Opinion: Annastacia Palaszczuk could be nearing the end of her shelf life

Annastacia Palaszczuk has been Labor’s best asset, but all good things must come to an end, writes Paul Williams.

What’s the biggest blunder a leader can make in the longer-term fortunes of their political party?

Is it to waste valuable time mopping up ministers’ own blunders? No, all cabinets suffer humiliations and moments of lesser activity.

Perhaps it’s to lapse into corruption and authoritarianism? That’s a terrible outcome, but all parties can wipe the slate clean after a bad leader’s removal.

No, the biggest sin is failing to ­cultivate an heir apparent. With no ­obvious successor, a party will suffer a leadership vacuum and soon be dispatched to opposition.

Long before retiring in 1966, prime minister Bob Menzies carefully groomed Harold Holt, who went on to win the following election with a record majority.

Similarly, Labor premier Peter Beattie anointed Anna Bligh as his successor, and she too won the following election easily.

Compare those with Joh Bjelke-Petersen, who created the impression he’d live forever.

The Nationals lost the 1989 state election because of the Fitzgerald inquiry, but it lost subsequent elections because it had no groomed successor to fill Bjelke-Petersen’s very large steel-capped boots.

This brings us to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who has led Queensland Labor for a decade. Palaszczuk is a hero in the Labor pantheon.

She defeated the then-largest government majority in Australian political history, and won another two elections with considerable ease.

Of the state’s 39 premiers, she is already Queensland’s fifth-longest-serving and, by the 2024 election, she’ll be the fourth.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at the recent jobs and skills summit in Canberra. Picture: Gary Ramage/NCA NewsWire

Opinion polls have long told us Palaszczuk is Queensland Labor’s best asset, with adjectives such as hardworking, accessible and humble regularly thrown around.

But all good things must come to an end and, at the third-term midpoint, Queensland Labor must now ask itself if Stacia is still its best asset.

If not, what can be done, and who waits in the wings to succeed her?

There’s little doubt a sea-change has occurred since January. Weighed down by allegations of a partisan public service and a cabinet too easily influenced by lobbyists, Palaszczuk has also been accused of living the high life and taking her eyes of the leadership ball after abandoning a cabinet meeting and hiking coal royalties.

For too many, Stacia – Queensland’s Covid-19 saviour – is beginning to lose her shine, with a June YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail finding only a minority of voters (45 per cent) now approve of Palaszczuk’s leadership.

While LNP leader David Crisafulli still trails Palaszczuk as preferred premier, the fact 46 per cent are yet to make up their mind about Crisafulli might work in the LNP’s favour – and against a premier who could be nearing the end of her shelf life.

Queensland Labor must heed recent federal lessons. In placing all its re-election eggs in the leadership basket, the Coalition lost everything this year when its ScoMo eggs turned bad.

To remain competitive against an increasingly agile LNP, state Labor must therefore shift focus.

It must de-emphasise the Palaszczuk persona and instead deliver on issues that matter to Queenslanders, particularly in the regions.

These include real integrity reform to meet fears Labor has lost the Fitzgerald spirit.

Bligh turned out-of-date Freedom of Information legislation into stronger Right to Information laws, and was rewarded accordingly.

Second, Labor must offer anti-inflationary measures to protect the state’s most vulnerable. Everything should be on the policy table from subsidised utility bills to frozen car rego fees.

Teachers, nurses, police and other public servants must also receive a pay rise, which if not actually catching up to galloping inflation, will at least get near it. Record coal royalty receipts make this affordable.

Third, the government must throw everything at the housing crisis, from a mass purchasing of properties for public housing to working with local councils to penalise landlords who leave properties vacant long-term.

Yet even this might not be enough for a fourth term.

That’s why the dreaded leadership question must be at least be considered.

There are only two serious candidates for succession: Deputy Premier Miles from the Left, and Treasurer Cameron Dick from the Right.

Either way, Palaszczuk must groom one or both of these leaders before Labor’s fortunes sink further.

Such a move will serve not only the party but also Palaszczuk’s own political legacy.