Peter Gleeson: Shannon Fentiman emerges as dark horse to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk
A dark horse has emerged as the most likely to succeed the Premier as leader of the Queensland Labor Party, writes Peter Gleeson. VOTE IN OUR POLL
Peter Gleeson
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Attorney-General Shannon Fentiman is emerging as the dark horse most likely to succeed premier Annastacia Palaszczuk as the leader of the Queensland Labor Party.
Fentiman’s visibility within Caucus has exploded in the past 12 months, and she is now a key player within the Left faction’s policy unit.
In recent months, she has also been active within the boardrooms of some of the bigger corporate entities around Brisbane.
Fentiman is being mentored by former Supreme Court judge Roslyn Atkinson, to whom she was an associate as a young lawyer.
The race to succeed Ms Palaszczuk is seen as a three-way battle between Left faction leader Steven Miles, Treasurer Cameron Dick and Ms Fentiman.
Both Mr Miles and Mr Dick are not resonating with voters in internal Labor polling and Ms Fentiman has the strong backing of former Deputy premier Jackie Trad.
A Labor insider said union powerbroker Gary “Blocker”’ Bullock had always seen Mr Miles as the premier in waiting.
“But he’s very practical … if Fentiman gives Labor the best chance at the polls, he would back her,’’ the insider said.
Of course, the $64,000 question is whether Ms Palaszczuk will contest the 2024 election, or relinquish her role, likely 12 months out in mid-2023, to give her successor plenty of time for renewal and to get traction within the community.
My sense is Ms Palaszczuk, 52, will run in 2024, meaning Mr Miles, Mr Dick or Ms Fentiman would have to wait to take over the top job.
As one insider put it; “Annastacia is our only hope.’’
For Mr Dick, the Treasury portfolio has exposed his shortcomings with the truth, and it will be hard for him to come back from abandoning his “no new taxes’ pledge before the last election.
Mr Dick has imposed a new coal royalties regime – a higher tax – on mining companies, while slugging corporate bookies with an extra levy.
He’s also been telling the odd porkie to justify his actions. You’ve no doubt heard the Treasurer say ‘BHP has been getting out of coal and Queensland for the past 20 years.’’
It’s rubbish. Over the past decade, BHP has opened two mines in Queensland and invested more than $17 billion, creating thousands of jobs.
That investment and commitment to Queensland over the past decade includes developing new mines, building significant infrastructure and training facilities. Examples include $3.9 billion to construct the Caval Ridge mine which opened in 2014 and has created more than 1500 jobs.
Then there’s $1.6 billion to construct the Daunia mine which opened in 2013, creating more than 750 jobs. There was $3.3 billion for the Hay Point Coal Terminal’s third expansion project, which increased the Port’s capacity from 44 million tonnes per annum to 55 million tonnes per annum.
Ironically, Premier Palaszczuk even welcomed BHP’s investment in a media release: “I want to thank BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi for their confidence in the Queensland coal export market and their contribution to the Queensland economy, despite coal prices having declined markedly in recent years.”
BHP is completing a $700 million to upgrade the Hay Point Coal Terminal in Mackay. This was an investment for the future, creating the infrastructure for Central Queensland to ship its high quality metallurgical coal – an essential ingredient for steelmaking – to the world.
It’s hard to see BHP making the decision to proceed with that investment today under the government’s royalty rise and significant increase in the sovereign risk associated with Queensland.
That’s the long term cost of the royalty rise – new major projects won’t proceed (and jobs won’t be created or sustained). Major investments are made on economic assumptions that periods of strong prices will offset periods of low prices. The higher royalty rate reduces the benefit of strong price periods and therefore reduces the economic strength of long-term investments.
Despite what Mr Dick says, BHP see strong long-term demand for Queensland’s high quality metallurgical coal for steelmaking. However the industry needs certainty and stability to continue investing in the state.
With less certainty in Queensland, major capital investments that could be made here will go to other states and countries instead.
That’s the price Mr Dick pays for not consulting the resources industry. Instead, he tries to suggest BHP is getting out of Queensland. You can’t believe a word the bloke says.
A good Treasurer would have sat down with the industry and worked out the pros and cons before slugging them with a massive new tax.
That act alone makes Ms Fentiman a better long-term bet to lead Labor in Queensland.