Newspoll: Majority of voters tip Coalition victory at next election
Australians have revealed who they think will come out the winner in the upcoming election. Have your say.
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A majority of voters expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese falling to his lowest approval levels amid a fall in support for Labor.
According to the latest exclusive Newspoll in The Australian, Liberal leader Peter Dutton is closing the gap further as preferred prime minister and the Coalition is leading 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.
The poll shows a major shift in voter sentiment against Mr Albanese.
Labor starts the year at a disadvantage, with policy announcements overshadowed by disputes over a rising number of anti-Semitic attacks.
Most voters now believe a Coalition election victory is imminent, either with the Coalition winning the election in its own right or in a minority government.
This marks a reversal of electoral expectations just six months ago when Labor was considered more likely to win at the polls.
A poll of 1259 voters conducted between January 20 and January 24 showed 53 per cent of voters were expecting the Coalition to win compared to 47 per cent for Labor.
Last August, 55 per cent said they were backing Labor to win vs. 45 per cent Coalition.
But two out of three voters say that a hung parliament – with either the Coalition or Labor leading a minority government – is the most likely outcome of the election.
Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points since December 2024 to an equal record low of 31 per cent, with the Coalition’s primary vote still at 39 per cent.
Approval of the Prime Minister’s performance has fallen to a low of 37 per cent while dissatisfaction has risen to 57 per cent, giving Mr Albanese a net negative approval ratings of minus 20 - a six-point fall since the last poll.
This is the worst result for the Prime Minister since he was elected.
Mr Dutton lifted one point to 40 per cent with a net negative approval rating of minus 11. Three points separate the leaders on the question of who was considered to be the preferred prime minister.
Mr Dutton lifted three points to 41 per cent with Mr Albanese falling a point to 44 per cent.
Mr Albanese’s personal numbers are now worse than Scott Morrison’s at the same point in the cycle before he lost the 2022 election.
The Coalition’s lead of 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis points to a likely minority Labor government if the results were repeated at the election.
This represents a 3.1 per cent swing against Labor since last election.
The poll shows that 29 per cent of voters believe the Coalition would win the election but only in minority government with support of independents.
And 24 per cent of voters believe the Coalition will win government in its own right compared with 15 per cent of voters believing that Labor will be able to retain majority government.
The poll was divided along gender lines, with 58 per cent of women voters believing a Coalition victory was more likely compared with 49 per cent of men.
Men were more inclined to predict a Labor win, at 51 per cent compared to 42 per cent of women voters.
In terms of age, younger voters said a Coalition victory was now more likely at 53-47 per cent, which was mirrored by the oldest demographic of over 65s.
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Originally published as Newspoll: Majority of voters tip Coalition victory at next election
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