Newspoll: Key states, lower income earners, women drift away from Morrison government

The latest Newspoll has indicated key states and core voters have turned away from the Morrison government with just one state still a stronghold.

The Morrison government has seen substantial voter swings against the Coalition in Victoria, Western Australia and NSW and could lose six to 10 seats if an election was to be held now, according to a Newspoll by The Australian.

The surveys, conducted between July and September, show growing disfavour for the Liberal/National Party with Queensland the only mainland state showing majority support for the Coalition.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Queensland Senator Amanda Stoker attend a Women Enterprising event at River City Labs in Brisbane. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

Support for the Coalition has dropped three points to 38 per cent nationally compared to the previous quarter.

Victoria has seen a hefty five-point swing against the Coalition, leaving the Liberal/Nationals with an averaged primary vote of 35 per cent with Labor leading by a margin of 58/42 per cent.

In NSW, the swing against the Coalition is three-points with popular support falling to 39 per cent.

This puts Labor ahead in NSW by 52/48 on a two-party preferred basis.

In Western Australia, support for the Coalition is down two points to 37 per cent, compounding the historic loss in the March state election.

Federal Labor leads in WA 54/46 on a two-party preferred basis, a nine-point decline for the Coalition which won the state on a 55.5/44.5 per cent margin in the 2019 federal election.

Queensland is the Coalition’s last stronghold with a 55/45 per cent lead.

Queensland has a primary vote split of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 33 per for Labor is the same as the previous quarter.

While in South Australia the average Coalition primary vote rose three points to 40 per cent, the Libs/Nats are still behind on a two-party preferred vote of 47/53 per cent in Labor’s favour.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends the Eisenhower Executive Building in Washington DC for the QUAD leaders meeting with US Vice President Kamala Harris. Picture: Adam Taylor via PMO

WHO HAS TURNED AGAINST THE COALTION?

The biggest voter shift away from the Coalition was among part-time, blue collar, non-tertiary educated, and low to middle-income earners.

There was a five point drop in support for the Coalition to 38 per cent among those with no post high school qualifications, with Labor now leading approval in this demographic at 39 per cent.

Voters who benefited from the May budget tax cuts, and those on incomes of between $50,000 and $99,000, have also drifted away from the Coalition, with support among this group falling from 42 per cent to 38 per cent, while support for Labor rose from 35 per cent to 40 per cent.

The Leader of the Australian Labor Party, Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

Women voters have turned away from the Coalition, dropping from 41 per cent to 37 per cent and switched their support to Labor

Mr Morrison’s performance has fallen nine points on the last survey to 48 per cent, with a net approval rating of zero nationally.

Mr Morrison, however, still remains in either positive or neutral territory across all states but for Victoria, which is now providing a drag on the prime minister’s popularity with a net negative approval rating of minus 14.

He also remains the preferred prime minister across all states, with a significant lead over Mr Albanese in Queensland, NSW and WA.

Originally published as Newspoll: Key states, lower income earners, women drift away from Morrison government