Newspoll: Morrison government trailing as key states drift away

The Coalition stands to lose between six to 10 seats in Victoria, WA and NSW if current trends are replicated at an election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison outside the White House in Washington over the weekend. Picture: Adam Taylor

The Morrison government would stand to lose between six to 10 seats on the back of significant swings against the Coalition in Victoria, Western Australia and NSW if current trends were replicated at an election.

With management of the pandemic still defining the electoral contest, a state-by-state Newspoll breakdown shows that Queensland remains the only mainland stronghold for the Coalition despite federal Labor also gaining ground in that state as well.

The decline has been led by a loss of support among part-time and blue-collar workers and low to middle-income earners, according to the quarterly analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted between July and September.

Support for both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese has also softened, with a further contraction in net approval ratings for both leaders against the backdrop of dominant state premiers.

The analysis shows an average three-point fall in primary support to 38 per cent nationally for the Coalition compared to the previous quarter.

The fall in Coalition support has been most dramatic in the two jurisdictions currently under Covid-19 lockdowns imposed by the state premiers, with a five-point swing against the Coalition in Victoria, leaving the Liberal/Nationals with an averaged primary vote of just 35 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor now leads in its traditionally strongest state by a margin of 58/42 per cent.

 

In Mr Morrison’s home state of NSW, the Coalition has suffered an averaged three-point swing against it in the current quarter compared to the April to June quarter, with popular support falling to 39 per cent.

Labor now leads in NSW by 52/48 on a two-party preferred basis, marking an almost four-point turnaround since the election in a state that the Coalition would need to win seats in rather than simply retain those it has, if it is to remain in office after the next election.

In Western Australia, the Coalition vote is down a further two points to 37 per cent in the latest demographic analysis, deepening the electoral damage for the federal Coalition following the historic defeat of the state branch in the March election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is temperature tested upon his return to Canberra from the United States of America. Picture: Adam Taylor

Federal Labor now leads in WA 54/46 on a two-party preferred basis, a nine-point decline for the Coalition which won the state on a 55.5/44.5 per cent margin in the 2019 federal election.

The only mainland state where the Coalition remains in front on a two-party preferred basis is Queensland where it still enjoys a 55/45 per cent lead. The primary vote split of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 33 per for Labor remains unchanged on the previous quarter.

However, it still reflects a swing against the Coalition on the 2019 election result when it secured 58.44/41.56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Anthony Albanese, right, has suffered further falls in his approval ratings. Picture: Jeremy Piper

It is also the state with the highest vote for minor parties, with a combined 25 per cent.

The only improvement for the government has been in South Australia, where the averaged Coalition primary vote lifted three points to 40 per cent.

But it still remains behind on a two-party preferred vote of 47/53 per cent in Labor’s favour.

The most significant demographic shift away from the Coalition was among low to middle-income earners and those without a post high school qualification, signalling a loss of support from the blue-collar workers who helped deliver the Liberal/Nationals their election victory in 2019.

Support for the Coalition fell from 43 per cent to 38 per cent among those with no tertiary education, with Labor now leading in this demographic for the first time on 39 per cent.

Those who benefited most from the May budget tax cuts, those on incomes of between $50,000 and $99,000, have also moved away from the Coalition, with support among this group falling from 42 per cent to 38 per cent, while those backing Labor grew from 35 per cent to 40 per cent.

Support for the Coalition among women voters fell from an equal 41 per cent with male voters in the first quarter to 37 per cent in the past three months.

 

Support among male voters fell two points to 39 per cent. Male voters were more likely to have peeled off to minor parties while female voters switched support to Labor.

Overall support for Mr Morrison’s performance has fallen nine points on the last survey to 48 per cent, with a net approval rating of zero nationally.

The largest fall was in Western Australia with an 11-point fall in approval, 10 points in Victoria, a seven-point fall in South Australia, a 12-point fall in NSW, and a three-point fall in Queensland.

Mr Morrison, however, still remains in either positive or neutral territory across all states but for Victoria, which is now providing a drag on the prime minister’s popularity with a net negative approval rating of minus 14.

He also remains the preferred prime minister across all states, with a significant lead over his rival Mr Albanese in Queensland, NSW and WA. The contest is tightest in Victoria between the two leaders.

Mr Albanese’s approval ratings also suffered further falls, with a net negative score of minus six in the first quarter of the year blowing out further to minus nine in the latest three-month analysis.