‘They’re not dying wondering’: Why PM was in safe Labor seat

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is going on the offensive, with the Coalition setting its sights on safe Labor seats. Here’s why.

By visiting the Labor stronghold of Blair for the second time this campaign, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is going on the offensive.

With the Coalition under fire in the southern states, a defensive strategy for the LNP to hold ground in “fortress Queensland” will not be enough if it wants to retain grip on power.

Between the rise of teal independents in Victoria and Liberal party dysfunction in NSW which left winnable seats without candidates until days before the election, the Coalition’s hopes of no net losses in those seats have been dashed.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison campaigning with LNP candidate for Blair Sam Biggins. Picture: Jason Edwards

It has seen the Coalition turn its attention to seats which should be safe Labor, like Blair and Hunter, but where changing demographics and blue-collar dissatisfaction over rhetoric on coal have left the ALP vulnerable.

The Ipswich-based seat Blair was reduced to a margin of 1.2 per in 2019 after an almost 7 per cent swing against it.

In an election where the momentum is with Labor, there should be a correction back towards incumbent Shayne Neumann, and many party insiders from both sides are predicting just that.

But Labor has also committed more than $43 million in election sweeteners just since the poll was called and more before that, which shows they are worried.

One LNP insider admitted Blair was a roughie, but that the party was making a serious attempt.

“They’re not dying wondering,” they said.

Polling remains in the Opposition’s favour in the seat, but some in the LNP believe there could be shy One Nation voters telling pollsters they will back Labor but will mark their ballot differently.

If that’s the case, the preference deal between the LNP and One Nation would see the government pick up at least some of that vote.

It will be a seat to watch come Saturday night.