‘We would have won the seat’: LNP aim for shock result in Labor stronghold

The Coalition is pouring resources into this Labor-held Queensland seat in the hopes that it can flip the result from the last election and compensate for losses elsewhere.

Labor’s most regional seat in Queensland, once a stronghold for the party, has become a surprise battleground as some in the Coalition believe if they had the same resources in 2019 they “would have won it”.

The Coalition have increased their manpower and advertising in the Ipswich-based seat of Blair “20 times” compared to the last election, and combined with preferences from One Nation they hope to flip it to compensate for losses elsewhere.

Sitting Labor member Shane Neumann, with LNP candidate Sam Biggins with Senator Matt Canavan at pre-poll voting for the Federal Election seat of Blair at Flinders View. Picture: Richard Walker

Despite the narrow margin, many in the Opposition – and some in the government – believe it is already at its low tide and there will be a correction back to Labor again.

Labor sources say the Government is inflating the resources it claims to be putting into the seat and that they were being outgunned at every polling booth.

Labor’s Shayne Neumann, who has held the seat since the Rudd-slide in 2007, remains the favourite to hold the seat against LNP challenger Sam Biggins.

But there was an almost seven per cent swing against Labor in Blair in 2019, reducing its margin to 1.2 per cent, which has seen the LNP pump more resources into the seat either to win it or draw the Opposition’s resources away from other battlegrounds like Brisbane.

The Coalition have increased its radio and print advertising while they have gone from being outnumbered on the booths from 10-to-one to closer to two-or-three-to-one.

An LNP source said the demographics of the seat had changed, which gave them a chance of being competitive.

“If we did this last time we would have won the seat,” they said.

“We’ve ratcheted up our game, but they’ve ratcheted up their game as well.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has visited the seat during the election campaign, to make a defence funding announcement at TAE Aerospace.

Both party’s have promised tens of millions of dollars in sporting facilities, shade cloths and lighting upgrades at parks.

Labor has pledged at least $43 million in projects in the seat since the federal budget alone and more before then, compared to about $3 million in Brisbane where it is predicted in the polls to win, while the Coalition has committed about $19 million.

One Nation, Greens and United Australian Party also at pre-poll voting for the Federal Election seat of Blair at Flinders View. Picture: Richard Walker

A Labor source said the LNP had increased its resources compared to 2019, but had committed more in the 2013 and 2016 elections, and were struggling against a well-organised Labor branch and volunteers.

Mr Neumann said the party had a strong ground game.

“A Labor Government will be better for Ipswich, the LNP candidate is a blow in who couldn’t vote for himself at the last election,” he said.

“We will see how it turns out on election night.”

Clive Palmer not directing preferences to either party, instead advising people to vote one for the United Australia Party and then number all the boxes in their preferred order after.