Newspoll: Labor takes early lead but voters mark down budget

Anthony Albanese has nosed ahead in the election race, even as voters branded last week’s budget the worst for the economy in a decade, the latest Newspoll shows.

Just a few days into the election race, Labor has taken an early lead after falls in both the Coalition’s primary vote and support for Peter Dutton, according to the latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian.

The result came despite voters branding the government’s budget last week as the worst for the economy in a decade.

The exclusive poll shows Labor leading the Coalition 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis at the start of the campaign, which is shaping up to be a fight over energy prices, income tax cuts and fuel tax relief.

The result – Labor’s best this year and consistent with the 2022 election result – also represented a two-point gain for the Albanese government over the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen two points to 37 per cent, its lowest this year, and only 1.3 per cent above its last election result.

While a likely hung parliament remained a likely outcome on this basis, it did give Labor better odds of retaining majority government if the result was replicated at the May 3 election on a uniform basis.

Support for the Greens remained unchanged since the last Newspoll conducted at the end of March, with the party on 12 per cent, in line with its result at the last election.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell a point to 6 per cent. Other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, gained two points to 12 per cent.

However, this was 2.5 per cent down on the May 2022 election result.

Labor’s primary vote has risen a point to 33 per cent, continuing a trend towards the government over the past two months from a low of 31 per cent in January and February.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail in Canberra with Katy Gallagher and Alicia Payne. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

But the news for Labor was not all good – only 16 per cent of voters believed last week’s budget and its $5-a-week tax cuts from July 2026 would improve their personal financial situation.

However only 38 per cent of voters believed the Coalition would have produced a better budget.

When it came to personal approval rating for both leaders, Anthony Albanese’s rating has also shown signs of improvement. After a record low at the start of the year, it has returned to the highest level since September at 43 per cent.

However, he still remains in negative territory with a disapproval rating of 52 per cent, leading to a net approval rating of minus nine.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton shakes hands with Chris Bowen at the Assyria New Year at Fairfield Showgrounds in Sydney on the campaign trail for the 2025 federal election. Picture: Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

Liberal leader Peter Dutton posted his worst approval rating since October 2023, at minus 18. His approval rating is now lower than any score Mr Albanese posted as opposition leader and level with Bill Shorten’s approval rating in May 2019.

Mr Albanese has also extended his lead over Mr Dutton as the better prime minister with an 11-point margin – the best result for Mr Albanese since May 2024.

The Newspoll was conducted between March 27 and March 29, with 1249 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.

It covered both Labor’s budget from Tuesday night and Mr Dutton’s budget-in-reply speech on Thursday night.

The assessment of whether the budget would be good for the economy was the lowest on record, with only 22 per cent saying they believed it would be good.

This is the worst result on this measure for a budget since the question was first asked of voters in May 1999.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers his budget speech at Parliament House on March 25. Picture: Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images

A total of 32 per cent said it would be bad for the economy, which is the highest since the Coalition’s 2014-15 budget, when Tony Abbott led the government.

Only 16 per cent of voters believed they would be financially better off over the next 12 months as a result of the budget – the lowest number since Jim Chalmers’ first budget in October 2022, and the second lowest since the Coalition’s 2014-15 austerity budget.

Younger voters were more inclined to consider the budget would leave them better off than people aged over 65 years.

However, voters were not convinced that the Dutton-led Coalition would have delivered a better budget, with only 38 per cent saying they would have produced a better set of numbers compared with 47 per cent who said they would have delivered a worse budget.

Originally published as Newspoll: Labor takes early lead but voters mark down budget