Labor extends lead in new RedBridge poll as Coalition failing on two key issues

The final national poll before election day has revealed the two issues that have triggered a slump in the Coalition’s vote and are set to see Anthony Albanese re-elected.

Global uncertainty and Labor’s nuclear scare campaign are responsible for a slump in the Coalition’s vote since November that will likely see the Albanese Government re-elected on Saturday.

The final RedBridge-Accent national poll before Saturday’s election has found that since the start of April, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead an extra point to 53 per cent which is replicated will see Anthony Albanese easily returned to the Lodge in a minority and with a small chance he could govern in his own right.

Last November Labor was behind 49 per cent to 51 per cent.

The poll found the change in Labor’s fortunes has been driven by movement in the votes of Millennial and Gen Z voters, one-of-five of whom said they had changed their vote since the start of the campaign.

RedBridge Director Kos Samaras said the Coalition’s hopes of winning this election “are being dashed up against the rocks of diverse and young Australians, large numbers of whom live within critical seats.”

Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead an extra point to 53 per cent.

The dramatic turnaround in the Government’s prospects has been largely driven by a collapse in Coalition’s primary vote which has shrunk from 42 per 34 per cent, which is 1.7 per cent less than Scott Morrison achieved in 2022.

In contrast since November Labor’s primary has only grown by 2 per cent to now be also 34 per cent – roughly 1.4 per cent higher than the party got three years ago.

The poll tested which promises and scare campaigns had been effective in influencing votes.

It found the biggest vote driving promises were Labor’s promises to make nine out of ten GP visits bulk billed and end price gouging by supermarkets.

These were followed by the Coalition’s pledge to halve the fuel excise for 12 months and its promise to introduce a low and middle-income tax rebate of $1200 which was far more popular than Labor’s tax cut of $5 a week.

None of the two major parties’ promises appear to have been as effective at shifting votes as their fears however.

The most popular reason cited by voters for voting against a party was concern about global uncertainty caused by President Trump.

The second most cited was fear Mr Dutton’s nuclear plan will cost $600 billion and require cuts to pay for it followed by concerns they would be worse off under the Coalition and the conservatives would cut Medicare.

The most successful of the Coalition’s charge against Labor is that this is the highest spending government in 40 years followed by concerns it is driving up inflation and Australians can’t afford another three years of the current government.

But none of these were as frequently cited as those four Labor charges.

Accent’s Shaun Ratcliff if Labor wins this election, as “now looks increasingly likely” three things will have saved it.

“The first is that they have run a disciplined campaign that came out the gates strong in February focusing on cost of living, health and housing, the three issues our research shows voters care about the most,” he said.

“Labor has also relentlessly hammered the Coalition on these same issues. Concerns around the cost of the Coalition’s nuclear power plan, that they will be worse off under the Coalition, and that a Liberal government will cut Medicare spending all rank highly as reasons deciding who voters’ will not support.”

RedBridge Director Tony Barry said that in recent years incumbency had been a liability.

“But with Donald Trump now creating absolute uncertainty, the stability and certainty that comes with political incumbency is an advantage again,” he said.

“Labor’s central campaign has cleverly defined the risk of change in these uncertain times.”

The online poll of 1,011 voters was conducted between 24-29 April.