Labor’s federal poll win in Forde changes everything for Crisafulli Government on Coast

The Labor Party has claimed the northern seat of Forde. It is a stunning, unexpected win, one insiders believe could change Gold Coast politics forever. This is why.

The Labor Party has claimed the northern Gold Coast seat of Forde. This is an unexpected win, a stunning result not predicted by either the ALP or LNP.

In the bigger picture, it will change the solid blue wave of politics here forever.

The LNP’s Bert van Manen was first elected in 2010 and has won four campaigns, many where Labor put in more funding than this time around. Forde was not on Labor’s radar.

Labor strategists privately admit “we didn’t think we had a hope in hell of winning it”.

Their plan was to target the seat next time, when Mr van Manen was due to retire.

Their candidate, Rowan Holzberger, has previously worked in the Southport office of Gold Coast-based Senator Murray Watt.

The win by Labor's Rowan Holzberger (pictured far left) has changed politics on the Gold Coast. The support for the ALP in the north will impact positively on the fortunes of their Gaven MP Meaghan Scanlon and see interest in the seats of LNP MPs Michael Crandon and Mark Boothman.

He would know the strategy has been securing Meaghan Scanlon in her State seat of Gaven.

His victory has party strategists looking north to Coast’s fastest growing suburbs.

While Forde stretches into the working areas north of the Yatala lights, it’s worth taking a look at how Mr Holzberger polled in the northern Gold Coast.

The swing of 5.99 per cent saw him win booths at Upper Coomera North and Coomera Springs – the vote there improved by 7.16 per cent on 2022.

The LNP vote was down by 7.38 per cent at the Ormeau booth.

At Nerang and Pacific Pines, whatever anger voters had towards Labor, it’s safe to say they vented in last year’s October poll. Ms Scanlon received a warm reception on the booths.

So the real battles in the next State election will be in Theodore held by the LNP’s Mark Boothman and Coomera with Michael Crandon – where both could consider retiring.

Gold Coast-based Labor Senator Murray Watt, on the pre-poll with Forde ALP candidate Rowan Holzberger (pictured right) and Labor supporters.

An LNP campaigner said: “We have severe doubts we can win Boothman’s seat of Theodore without Boothman. He’s a backbencher, but on the ground he’s the best in Queensland.”

Two other factors will be at play here – both with impossible to predict outcomes.

“Because of the changing demographic, it’s a very working class area on both sides of the M1 in the north. Also the Kiwis can vote now,” the LNP campaigner says.

“(Queensland Premier) David Crisafulli has spoken about it to members a number of times. We have to watch these seats. We don’t want to be losing seats to Labor, because that puts us in a lot of difficulty.”

But not everything will play into Labor’s political songbook of winning the North.

The Government has appointed three commissioners to the Queensland Redistribution Commission to undertake a review of boundaries.

Election - Rowan Holzberger - Labor Candidate for Forde and supporters celebrate at Beenleigh Tavern Saturday night. Picture: Nigel Hallett

Media reports have focused on Labor being critical of the appointment of John Sosso, the director general of State Development under Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie – the LNP defends it given his legal experience and strong work history of working with departments.

What impacts down here is the seat of Coomera is over quota and will see boundary changes.

This could impact further south, on Ms Scanlon’s seat, and whether it stretches west or south into blue LNP territory, or further north into Labor red. All will become clearer later this year.

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Originally published as Labor’s federal poll win in Forde changes everything for Crisafulli Government on Coast